Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 161717
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1118 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONING TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOME COOLER
AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
REFLECTION OF THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME AS MOST
OF THE COOLER AIR IS ALOFT. IT WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
EXTENSIVE CIRRUS. MODELS DO INDICATING INCREASING 300-500 MB
MOISTURE TODAY...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY PRODUCE SOME CIRRUS...BUT
THE QUESTION IS HOW THICK WILL THE CIRRUS BE. KEPT THE FORECAST
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT VERY WELL COULD BE CLOSER TO
THE CLOUDY SIDE OF THINGS AND THAT COULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE FORECAST HIGHS.

CIRRUS CLOUDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE
THIS BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING LESS
CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY BUT CIRRUS COULD BE QUIET EXTENSIVE AS
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN OFF THE PACIFIC. IN GENERALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE MADE TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND NO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN...WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...SO MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUES IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE TUES INTO WED. THEY
BOTH SHOW ENERGY DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AND
DEVELOP A WEAK MIDLVL CIRCULATION NEAR COLORADO BY LATE WED.
LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FROPA...ALTHOUGH THE
AIRMASS IS NOT THAT COLD (700MB TEMPS AROUND -1C) SO MOST OF THE
PRECIP WOULD FALL AS RAIN OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING ACROSS IN WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A BIT BREEZY IN
THE WEST TODAY...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML






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