Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 191119
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE A BIT STRONG THIS MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND IN THE ARLINGTON AREA. GUSTS OF 35 TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON IN THESE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THE
UPPER JET WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN WEAKENING OVERALL THROUGH AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE SFC WINDS STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

SATELLITE PICS SHOW STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STEADILY MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND BL RH PROGS SHOWING
LLVL CLOUDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER THE PINE RIDGE AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THESE LLVL CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. BROADSCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING JET WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES MINIMAL TODAY WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE PINE RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD AS H7 TEMPS INCREASE A FEW DEGREES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AND BECOME MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE ON THURSDAY WITH H7 TEMPS INCREASING TO AROUND
-1C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND 30S AND 40S OUT WEST. NAM DOES SHOW THE
STRATUS LINGERING OVER THE PINE RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...SO COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE COOLER TEMPS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS IF THE STRATUS INDEED PERSISTS. GFS AND WRF BOTH PUSH
THE LLVL CLOUDS TO THE EAST LATER TODAY THO...AND WILL TREND
TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER AND MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL CARRY WITH IT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE WEST TO EAST WITH THE WAVE...BUT
LIKELY WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
MIDLEVEL ENERGY...MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL FOCUS BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...WITH TEMPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PEAKING IN THE 50S AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS AND PRODUCING A LEESIDE
PRESSURE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...ONE FINAL MILD DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECENT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PRODUCE A
WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LEE TROUGH...WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AIDING IN
WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE. IF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD OPACITY...
THICKNESS...IS LIMITED...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL
INTO THE 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WEST
OF I-25. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COPIOUS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE ZONES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS THERE...DRY
ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY...RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL SEND A MODERATELY STRONG PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES EARLY. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE QPF IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO...WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS OVER OUR SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. LOOKS WINDY PER
PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS.

MONDAY...OROGRAPHIC SNOW MACHINE WILL CONTINUE IN MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...AND WE WILL LIKELY
NEED SOME TYPE OF LONG TERM WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WINTER STORM
WARNINGS THERE. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH DOWNSLOPE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.

TUESDAY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE WAKE OF A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS MENTIONED BY THE TUESDAY LONG
TERM FORECASTER...WE MAY SEE STRONG WINDS THIS DAY PER PROGGED
SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET AGL.
MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING AT CHADRON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...SAR
FIRE WEATHER...RJM



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