Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 221207
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
607 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THIS PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY INCREASING COVERAGES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS. IR
SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTING MOISTURE FIELD OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE U.S. WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION BUT IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA
HELPING TO SET OFF PCPN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE
SW UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST AS A SECOND
UPPER LOW NEARS THE PACIFIC NW WHICH SHOULD INCREASE PCPN EVEN
MORE OVER THE CWA FRIDAY. MODEST AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW TSTRMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

WEATHER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE WITH CHANGES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD BUT THERE IS RELATIVELY
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. THIS PORTENDS SOGGY COOL CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
QUICKLY SLIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
START OFF ON THE DRY SIDE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AND
IN WHAT PHASE WILL IT REACH THE GROUND. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKS WITH RAIN MOSTLY LIKELY INTO THE PLAINS WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BUT ONCE
AGAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
PRECIPITATION RATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS BE CLOSE TO
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A FEW CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING MAINLY FROM AROUND THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...AND WEST
INTO CARBON COUNTY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED APR 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES MILD AND OTHER WEATHER FACTORS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NON-CRITICAL. NEARLY DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTRMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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