Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 192337 AAA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
537 PM MDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...for the early evening aviation forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday evening)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms which have developed over
southeast wyoming and into western nebraska panhandle will
continue over the next several hours and then die off this
evening. The overall threat for severe thunderstorms is
low...but may see a few stornger thunderstorms with hail near
one inch in size.

isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again develop tomorrow.
again the severe threat is minimal. mainly looking for small hail
with some of the stronger updrafts. Other than the afternoon
shower and thunderstorms it will be a nice day with mild
temperatures. It will be a bit windy for places like rawlins.

Saturday will also be a warm day with another chance for
thunderstorms. the shear and cape profiles suggest the potential
for a few severe afternoon thunderstorms east of the laramie
range. At this time the main threat looks to be across east
central wyoming.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Strong shortwave is still progged to move over Wyoming on Sunday
with a fropa on Sunday morning.  Highs will be around 15 degrees
cooler to the west of the Laramie Range, which will decrease the
rate of snowmelt in the mountains.  Scattered tstms could develop
during the aftn along the front over the plains.  Convection will
really be limited on Monday with dry llvls and westerly boundary
layer flow.  Temps will be around normal through the middle of next
week with highs mostly in the 60s to low 70s.  This is good news for
a persistent, slow snowmelt above 8000 ft.  Weak shortwaves in
southwesterly flow aloft will move across Colorado/Wyoming on
Tuesday and Wednesday.  Scattered tstms will be possible each aftn
as the GFS/ECMWF show CAPE values increasing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually
diminish through 03z with VFR ceilings and visibilities expected
to prevail overnight. Latest NAM cycle was hinting at some IFR
ceilings and lowered visibilities for Alliance and Sidney after
midnight...but the latest HRRR keeps IFR ceilings to our southeast
through morning. Even the NAM keeps winds up around 15 kts through
09Z...so trended forecast closer to the HRRR. Otherwise...look for
more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon...especially along and east of Interstate 25.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

No fire weather concerns this week and green up is well under way
across the area. Above normal temperatures the next few days and
then turning cooler with near normal temperatures next week with
period chances for precipitation.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu May 19 2016

For the North Platte River, the latest forecast for Mitchell,
Nebraska shows moderate flooding with a constant stage near 9.0
feet. Minor to moderate flooding will continue near Henry and
Minatare, Nebraska for the next several days. Moderate flooding will
also continue at Fort Laramie, with the river steady near 8.2 feet.
Finally, the Laramie River at Laramie has crested but will stay in
minor flooding through the weekend. Minor flooding is forecast for
Saratoga and Sinclair, Wyoming late this weekend and early next week.

Will be monitoring snowmelt runoff through the weekend as mountain
daytime temperatures warm into the 50s with nighttime lows in the
mid-upper 30s, along with gusty southwest winds. Additional rises in
streams and river levels are likely. High water levels will continue
for the Little Snake River near Dixon and Baggs, Wyoming.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...SML
HYDROLOGY...ZF



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