Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 300534 AAB
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE MIDNIGHT AVIATION FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH WINDS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

CURRENTLY...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING
SHOWING ELEVATED SMOKE HANGING TOUGH OVER AREAS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BEING ANALYZED NEAR THE IDAHO/OREGON
BORDER...EXTENDING UP INTO ALBERTA CANADA. SOUTHEAST WYOMING
REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
PART OF THE COUNTRY.

RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST THIS EVENING WITH 700MB SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 850MB WINDS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...UP TO 35-40KTS. COULD BE A LOW LEVEL
JET SETTING UP OUT THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT COULD SHELTER THE PANHANDLE FROM THESE
WINDS. BUT IF THE INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP...COULD BE DEALING
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT THERE TONIGHT.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG 700MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES AS WELL AS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND NORTH LARAMIE
RANGE. PRECIP DELAYED INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. DID UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. NIGHT
SHIFT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NORTHERN 309 AND 310 AS WELL AS WE
SHOULD BE VERY DRY UP THERE WITH POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES.

CONVECTION MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GFS BY FAR THE
MOST BULLISH ON POPS OVER THE ECMWF AND NAM. DID DECREASE POPS
SOME FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LOOK FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH COOLER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 338 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY... LINGERING MOISTURE ON
TUESDAY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES. GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING AND DRIER LOW LEVELS...
POP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... MAINLY EFFECTING EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT INTO THE 15-25
KT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR SOME SITES BY 17Z. IN SHORT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CHALLENGING FORECAST AS WIND SPEEDS
COULD BE OFFSET BY INCREASING CLOUDS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING.
WILL KEEP RED FLAG WARNING FOR FWZ 301 FOR SUNDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES WILL GIVE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS OUT
THAT WAY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDY PERIOD

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WYZ301.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SML/KC
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...GCC


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