Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 170004
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
604 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

DRY AND VERY MILD WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING NWLY FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MTN CHAIN. A MINOR PUSH
OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE CWA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. MAX TEMPS JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED
THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SCOOT ACROSS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AT 500 MB...LEADING
TO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED DRY OVER OUR PART OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
AS THE WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO PROGGED TO
HAVE ALL ITS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN COLORADO. ANOTHER MID OCTOBER BALMY WEEKEND COMMENCEMENT
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS PER PROGGED THICKNESSES AND
SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB PRESSURE PATTERN.

SUNDAY...CONTINUATION OF DRY AND MILD END TO THE TRADITIONAL WEEKEND
WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.

MONDAY...AS IS TYPICAL...OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST AS THE
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES...IN TURN INDUCING
DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING FROM EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH EASTERN
WYOMING AND THUS PRODUCING A DECENT WARMING TREND DUE TO LOW LEVEL
WINDS SWITCHING FROM SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ON SUNDAY...TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...PSEUDO MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT SLOWLY
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ADVECTING...INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES OF CARBON AND ALBANY...AIDING IN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS
OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY SLIGHTLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD TO EASTERN MONTANA AND CENTRAL WYOMING
SENDING A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MOSTLY LATE
DAY...SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY...DRYING OUT PERIOD AS THE RATHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...WITH NORTH FLOW ALOFT
ENSUING OVER OUR COUNTIES. MORE AUTUMNAL LIKE FEEL NOTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 603 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY JUST AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD. A STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS A POSSIBILITY
FOR KCDR AND KAIA AFTER 10Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

NO BIG CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE NON-CRITICAL OVERALL. DRY AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...RE






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