Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 180051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
651 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Very warm weekend in store with some record highs possible.  Upper
ridge axis will move overhead tonight/Saturday with 700 mb temps
rising to 6-8C by Saturday aftn.  This is in the 99th percentile for
mid to late March.  Could see some breezy conditions develop during
the aftn for areas along and west of the Laramie Range with good
mixing and 700 mb winds of 30-35 kts.  Winds should mostly stay
below critical levels to the east of the Laramie Range, so will hold
off on any fire weather highlights even with min RH values dropping
to around 15 percent.  Ridge aloft will flatten on Sunday with
increasingly zonal flow.  Pressure falls to the east of the CWA will
mean breezy winds across the plains with soundings suggesting gusts
to 30-35 kts from late morning through the aftn. Definitely looks
like widespread critical fire weather conditions over the plains of
southeast WY and the western Nebraska Panhandle, very similar to
yesterday.   Will let future shifts monitor and consider issuing a
Fire Weather Watch for Sunday.  Another weak front will back into
the plains by Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Weather next week looks to be more seasonal temperature-wise as
well as unsettled. It will be cooler especially over the plains
Monday as a cold surface high settles out of central Canada into
the northern plains.  Some rain and snow showers also expected
over northern parts of the CWA where some favorable upper jet
dynamics overrun surface upslope flow. The front should remain
banked up against the mtns through Tuesday night before retreating
to the east Weds as an upper ridge passes across. Next system
moves by on Thursday with the GFS bringing a closed upper low
across Colorado into Kansas as well as a decent precipitation
shield across the CWA...some of it snow. EC depicting more of an
open trough passing across...keeping its better QPF over western
and northern parts of the CWA. Will have to monitor this system as
the week progresses.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 650 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Winds and high clouds will be on the increase by 18z.


Issued at 215 PM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Fire weather concerns will increase this weekend as lower
humidities and breezy conditions are expected, especially on
Sunday. Temperatures will be well above normal this weekend with
minimum afternoon humidity values dropping to around 15 percent
for areas to the east of the Laramie Range. Wind gusts will mostly
be below 25 mph to the east of the Laramie Range on Saturday
afternoon. Winds will increase by Sunday with widespread
elevated/critical fire weather conditions across the plains.





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