Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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710
FXUS65 KCYS 020556
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1156 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR EASTERN CWFA.

CURRENTLY...1030MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR CHEYENNE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US
THE SNOW YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. STILL
SEEING A COLD NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND OVER OUR CWFA. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE PANHANDLE.

PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING. SHOULD SEE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
QUITE COLD WITH TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOW TO MID
20S EAST.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA...DIGGING SOUTHWEST INTO OUR EASTERN CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT NOON TIME TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THU...GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 700 HPA TEMPERATURES TO +10 C
SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THU/FRI. WE MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW 80S IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MODELS ARE NOW COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY W/
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED
LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A STORMY WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50 F AND COOLING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT
CAPES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG PER THE GFS ALONG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
FRI AND/OR SAT AFTERNOONS. THE GFS STILL SUGGESTS H7 TEMPS FALLING
TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 DEG C ON SUNDAY...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON MOTHERS DAY. THIS IS STILL A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER...SO ONLY MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE TOWARD COOLER TEMPS LATER IN
THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CIGS WITH BASES AROUND
5000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SNY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT AIA BY THE EARLY EVENING ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THOUGH
WE DO BEGIN TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THEY
BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO WESTERN WYOMING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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