Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 182211
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
411 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 411 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

The main concern in the near term will be winds tonight across the
northern Nebraska Panhandle, and continued hot temps for Sunday.
Sfc cyclogenesis is expected this evening across eastern Montana
and the Dakotas as an upper level low slides east across the PacNW
and into the northern Rockies. Southerly winds across our high
plains looks to increase in response, especially across east
central Wyoming and the northern Nebraska panhandle. The Pine
Ridge and areas to the north should see the strongest winds in our
forecast area, with speeds of 25 to 35 mph gusting to 50 mph
likely late tonight through early Sunday morning as a rather
strong low level jet develops. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few
locally higher gusts to around 55 mph though especially along the
spine of Pine Ridge as H85 winds from both the GFS and NAM are
progged to approach 50 kts. Hoisted a Wind Advisory for this area
which includes Dawes and northern Sioux Counties from 9PM this
evening through 4AM Sunday to highlight this wind potential.

Sunday will be slightly cooler than today, although not by much,
in the wake of the leeside trough exiting to the east and a
weak Pacific front sliding south over the area Sunday morning.
Winds will overall be weaker than today as well, although gusts
to 25 mph are still quite possible across Carbon County in the
afternoon. Still not seeing any real chance for afternoon
convection due to limited moisture. A stronger cold front pushing
south through the area Monday morning will relieve us from the
heat on Monday. High pressure building into the central plains
in the wake of the front will strengthen the upslope wind
component, providing a more focused chance for orographic showers
and t-storms in the afternoon. Models are showing a few storms
across the plains as well, but those will likely be tied to
orographic enhancement as well. In addition, may see some upslope
stratus develop along the Laramie Range in the morning, but doubt
it will be of significant impact until perhaps Monday night when
boundary layer moisture deepens.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 411 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

Little change seen in the overall weather across the CWA this
period as a summer-like pattern holds...featuring an east-west
elongated upper high over the southern plains into the desert sw.
A few shortwaves riding east across the northern plains will clip
the CWA in the mid and latter part of the week and help to set off
some isolated convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A
Pacific cool front should bring some minor cooling to the CWA
Thursday and Friday otherwise continued quite warm overall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

VFR conditions through the taf period with south to swly winds into
this evening...becoming sw to westerly overnight.  A developing low
level jet over the Nebraska Panhandle will cause windy conditions to
affect KCDR for a period after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 411 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

Fire weather concerns will remain elevated this afternoon mainly
west of the Laramie Range where humidities in the lower elevationshave
dropped below 10 percent and winds are gusting 25-30 mph.
Fortunately, fuels are not yet supportive of rapid fire spread.
Gusty winds in the northern Nebraska Panhandle may keep humidities
from recovering well tonight, or at least until a weak front
passes south across this area early Sunday morning. Dry
conditions will return for this area on Sunday, although winds
will be somewhat lighter. No precipitation is expected until
Monday when a cold front will drop south across the district in
the morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 411 PM MDT Sat Jun 18 2016

The Laramie River at Laramie will likely drop below flood stage
this evening, but is expected to rise back above flood stage
on Sunday due to reduced diversions of the river into the Pioneer
Canal. Therefore, maintained the flood warning for the Laramie
River at Laramie.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM MDT Sunday for
     NEZ002-095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...RJM



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