Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 140436
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1036 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA. A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS SOME CIRRUS PASSES OVER THE REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NOT AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SHOT OF COLD AND SNOW BUT A MEMORY NOW AS PLEASANT LATE SUMMER
WEATHER WILL HOLD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
HOLDS GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MINOR REINFORCING SHOT
OF COOLER AIR WILL PUSH DOWN THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY BUT HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON MAXIMA FOR MONDAY. MODELS HINT AS A BIT OF MOISTURE
REACHING UP TO AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PASSING ACROSS THUS HAVE OPTED TO ADD SOME LOW
SHOWER POPS MAINLY AROUND THE SRN MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAY NEED
TO NUDGE THOSE TO THE EAST LATER SUNDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS
VERY LOW IN THAT AREA. DRY AGAIN MONDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PANHANDLE AND MAYBE
EVEN EXTREME SE WY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

A QUIT PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD NORTH WHILE SPREADING INTO THE ROCKIES
THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO NORMAL AND EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY PLACES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON IN THE EAST. COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEARLY NONEXISTENT THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR AND BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. NOT
UNTIL FRIDAY IS THERE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING A TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE FRIDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED WEATHER
PATTERN THIS UPCOMING WEEK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER
DRY WARM FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY. DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO
PINPOINT TERMINALS AND TIMING AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES ARE KLAR
AND POSSIBLY KCYS. WILL TRY TO NARROW DOWN TIMING ON THE 12Z TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

CONCERNS LOW OVERALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY
REMAINING OUTSIDE OF CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER WESTERN
DISTRICTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ELEVATE CONCERNS WITH MINIMUM RH/S
AROUND 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...SML





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