Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 182047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
247 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Quiet weather across the CWA now with much less wind. Area radars
showing some light showers beginning to increase around the Wy/Co
border ahead of a shortwave currently over northern Nevada. This
will continue to move east overnight and should increase areal
coverage of showers over much of the CWA...aided by some lift from
the left exit region of an upper jet nosing southeast across
western Wyoming.  Rain still looks to change to snow showers over
the mtns later tonight while over the plains a mixture of rain and
wet snow possible later tonight into Weds morning. Any
accumulating snow should stay confined to the higher mtns.

Scattered showers expected to persist over the plains Weds as
shortwave energy continues to move by and some jet dynamic still
in the area.  A cool day with max temps in the 40s to mid 50s.
Chilly conditions Weds night as any lingering pcpn ends in the
evening and skies clear. Dry and mild for Thursday as upper
ridging shifts into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

All medium range models show a benign weather pattern across the
area through the weekend and into early next week. Not many
forecast concerns during this time frame due to a broad ridge
axis aloft along the spine of the Rocky Mountains...extending
northward from New Mexico/Colorado towards the Canadian border.
The upper level flow eventually backs into the southwest next week
as a strong Pacific storm system moves onshore. This will likely
be when the next chance of precipitation will sometime
between next Tuesday and next Thursday depending on how the
timing differences are resolved over the next several days.
Otherwise...daytime temperatures will return to the 60`s Friday
through this weekend west of I-25...with 70`s across the high
plains. A few lower elevation locations may reach 80 Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will trend cooler early next week as some
Pacific energy will begin to push across Wyoming...but high
temperatures will still be above average for this time of the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The main aviation concern continues to be the snow potential between
Laramie and Cheyenne this evening. VFR conditions are expected
through most of today with the potential for MVFR and IFR conditions
over KLAR and KCYS as a midlevel frontal boundary moves across the
area. Low confidence forecast for this evening and tonight as there
are indications that some moderate to heavy precipitation bands will
develop and lift northeast across the area between 23Z through 09Z
tonight. If this precip falls heavy enough...may see snowfall even
at KCYS late this evening. Although some precip is expected further
east across western Nebraska...precip type should be all rain for
these locations with CIGS above 4000 feet AGL.


Issued at 250 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

No concerns seen through early Friday with cool temperatures.
Scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers expected tonight
into Wednesday. Concerns may increase towards the weekend as
warmer and breezier weather looks to return.




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