Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 212352 CCA
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected Aviation
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
541 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Hot across much of the CWA this afternoon with temps flirting with
100F over the panhandle. Cheyenne has equaled its record high for
the day at 95 so far. Some cumulus has developed over se WY but
warm mid level temps capping them off so far. Still could see a
few storms pop up later this afternoon into this evening in
association with a surface trough that will move east across the
plains through this evening. An upper low near the NW Montana
border will move east overnight and drive a cold front across the
CWA later this evening bringing cooler temps to the CWA for Weds
and Thursday. A little convection is possible mainly over the mtns
Thursday afternoon and evening otherwise a dry day expected.
Little change seen for Thursday except for some uptick in moisture
from the south as the upper ridge builds a bit to the east of the
area. Should see somewhat better coverage of convection in the
afternoon and evening as a weak impulse moves across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday Night)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Friday could be an active thunderstorm day as a shortwave trough
swings up from the southwest ahead of a stronger storm system
moving east across the Pacific NW. Looks mostly like a chance for
high based weak storms based on marginal instability and shear
progged by the models. Saturday will be a bit cooler and overall
windier than Friday behind a Pacific front attendant to the
Pacific NW storm, and Sunday looks similar albeit less wind. The
upper ridge will build back over the Rockies on Sunday night and
Monday, although a vort max looks to round the ridge and across
Wyoming through the day. Could see a return of afternoon convection
as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2016

A few isolated showers will pass south of Chadron and Alliance
early this evening. VFR will prevail at Southeast WY and NE
Panhandle aerodromes through the period. Smoke plume from Beaver
Creek fire near WY/CO border will lower visibility to 6SM at
Cheyenne early this evening. A cold front will sweep east across the
region tonight, shifting winds from west-southwest north-northwest
and push smoke plume south into northern CO. Winds will be breezy at
times ahead of and behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Marginal/low end red flag conditions will end over the western
districts this evening as the air mass cools. Concerns then
expected to be low over the next couple days with lighter winds
and cooler temps behind a cold front that will pass across
tonight.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ301-303-308.

NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE


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