


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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195 FXUS65 KCYS 260507 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1107 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. A few storms may become strong to severe. - Warmer and drier weather expected for the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 304 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 The shortwave has kicked off the storms around 18-19z in Albany county. The bulk shear today is pretty minimal maxing around 35kts resulting in pulsy/messy thunderstorms this afternoon as they slowly push east through Wyoming. Models put about 2000 j/kg in the Nebraska Panhandle where these struggling storms are expected to organize and become more linear. However, the panhandle was clouded over this morning and early afternoon so there is some uncertainty on how unstable the Panhandle will actually become for storm cell organization. SPC did upgrade our southern portion of the panhandle into a slight risk with the main threat being hail and wind. Thursday, our flow turns from southwesterly under the trough to westerly downslope behind the departing trough. The downsloping flow may keep the lower levels dry enough to not expect precipitation in the afternoon despite the short lived ridge pushing through allowing for some moisture advection and some modest CAPE in the Panhandle. Winds should be calmer as well underneath this short lived ridge. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 304 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 The long term remains active as we see temperatures fluctuate thanks to several smaller systems able to keep hotter and warmer ridging at bay, giving us a near daily shot at showers and thunderstorms as well. Friday will begin with temperatures starting to warm back into the mid 80`s to mid 90`s across the CWA with a meager chance at a shower or thunderstorm, strongest in the Nebraska Panhandle. That being said, the environment would be supportive of some stronger activity as storms initialize in this area, but if they do they`ll have limited time to strengthen before exiting our area. That changes on Saturday as we see a jet max over the north-central US providing the forcing needed to resume showers and thunderstorms for the region, as well as bringing a shot of cooler air to end the weekend - but not before we see our warmest day of the period overall, with highs into the upper 80`s to mid 90`s. But as the cold front pushes through, storms along and ahead of this feature will be possible and could promote a few instances of stronger activity, but the best environment still lies just to our east limiting any potential for severe activity. Moving into Sunday we should see a cooling trend that will continue into Monday, with highs not expected to eclipse 90 at this time. And on Monday itself, highs should only reach the 70`s to 80`s thanks to the cooler flow behind the front alongside the assistance of daily showers and storms from the Laramie Range eastwards. Some favorable instability with a couple more shortwaves should fuel a few more thunderstorms for the day, and once again we can`t rule out a stronger storm or two but the environment still isn`t prime for stronger severe weather. Ridging starts to build back in on Monday, so by Tuesday expect widespread 80`s with some near 90`s to start building back in as we move into July. Embedded weaker disturbances could once again fuel some showers or storms, but the expectation of stronger to severe activity seems once again limited at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Showers and storms have moved out of the region tonight with clearing skies expected behind. Portions of the Nebraska Panhandle may remain fairly cloudy with excess moisture in the region. All Nebraska terminals may see light fog or low stratus overnight, though confidence remains low for the 06Z TAF issuance. Included low, scattered cloud decks at sites that may see low stratus and included low, broken decks at KAIA where confidence in low ceilings is a bit higher. Ceilings erode in the early morning hours, leading to clearing skies with ample sunshine. Some isolated showers may drift around KCYS and KLAR in the afternoon, but confidence is low in either terminals seeing appreciable rainfall. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...AM