Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 260122
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
730 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER
MORNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE IN A LULL RIGHT NOW AND
GETTING READY FOR ROUND TWO.

CURRENTLY...MCS COMPLEX HAS CLEARED THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS PUSHING OFF INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. LATEST MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWING SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN
AN AREA OF UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN
2500 AND 3500 J/KG. AREAS THAT SAW CONVECTION THIS MORNING ARE
SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RANGING FROM -50 TO -75 J/KG
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF STORMS BEING FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...CAPE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH...IN THE
2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH MID
EVENING.

ONE AREA OF CONCERN HYDRO WISE. MORNING CONVECTION OVER DAWES AND
NORTHERN SIOUX COUNTIES HAVE PRIMED THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF UP TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN DAWES COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF
CHADRON. REPORTS OVER NORTHERN SIOUX AROUND AN INCH AND FURTHER
WEST IN CONVERSE COUNTY...WE RECEIVED REPORTS CLOSE TO AN INCH
FROM MORNING CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS
ANY MORE STORMS UP THERE COULD PRODUCE FLOODING CONDITIONS
QUICKLY.

SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS
EVENING AND CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED THE POTENTIAL FOR
AM FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
LINGER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND GRADUALLY DRIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE STRONG MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL GREATLY INHIBIT CONVECTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...OTHERWISE KEPT POP BELOW 10 PERCENT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LOW...DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH PRETTY
HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE TOO
GREAT TO OVERCOME FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MAY CHANGE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
WEST AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A MORE
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED POP
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90. MODELS THEN INDICATE A COOL FRONT QUICKLY MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF KSNY AND KBFF THIS
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z. AFTER A
BRIEF BREAK...IFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE
STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
A DRIER DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT THATS CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA MOVES EAST. NICE AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND LOWER
30S EAST. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS AREA FUELS ARE RATED
NONRECEPTIVE TO LARGE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ102.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ002-095.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC



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