Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 211244

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
644 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Today...Near perfect day to end the work week as a ridge aloft moves
overhead and our airmass continues to moderate with mostly sunny
skies. Guidance high temperatures between NAM and GFS MOS are close
and look on track.

Tonight...Flow aloft becomes more zonal, west to east, and decent
low level winds or mixing, will make for a relatively tranquil, mild

Saturday...Our airmass continues to moderate and warm as zonal flow
aloft prevails and downslope warming and 700 mb temperatures near 7
Celsius continue to make for a warm day. Again, guidance
temperatures are close and accepted.

Saturday night...Even more mild than Friday night as our airmass
continues to moderate.

Sunday...Cooler day on tap east of I-25 as surface high pressure
across the Central Plains states produces upslope southeast winds.
Temperatures remain about the same compared to Saturday, west of
I-25. Continued dry with quite minimal low and mid level moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

The upper level ridge will shift to the east of our forecast
area Sunday night and Monday, deamplifying somewhat on Tuesday as
a series of shortwaves move across the Rockies and into the
central Plains. With the train of shortwaves will come increasing
chances for rain and high elevation snow showers for our counties
Monday into Tuesday. The bulk of the precip will remain over the
higher terrain and nearby lower elevations, but can see a few
showers making it into the WY/NE plains as well based on the
vigorous nature of the shortwaves and moisture progs. In
addition, the passage of these waves within deep westerly flow
will maintain breezy westerly winds at the surface through the
extended period, especially along and west of the Laramie Range.
The upper ridge will then build back over the western CONUS
midweek bringing a return of dry and mild conditions. Breezy
conditions will continue.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 644 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Main concern through the period will be breezy winds across
southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska panhandle. Breezy
west to southwest winds occurring along and west of I-25 this
morning will persist through afternoon. In addition, breezy winds
should spread into the plains along the I-80 corridor through the
morning and early afternoon. Winds will ease by sunset.


Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Low humidities will occur this afternoon across much of southeast
Wyoming, mainly along and near I-25, though fortunately, winds are
expected to remain at or below critical thresholds. A Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for late Saturday morning and afternoon
primarily along and east of I-25 for low humidities and gusty
winds. Fortunately, higher humidities will occur Sunday into early
next week.


WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for WYZ301-309-310.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NEZ311>313.



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