Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 301107

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
507 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

An active/unsettled weather pattern will continue through today as
an upper-level shortwave moves east across Montana. Farther south,
a closed upper low will drift slowly into western Arizona. Surface
cyclogenesis will take place this afternoon w/lee troughing across
southeast Wyoming by 18z. This feature is expected to advance east
into the western Nebraska panhandle this afternoon, yielding focus
for convective development. Severe threat should be low today with
the strongest mid-level flow well to the north, giving way to very
modest vertical shear with 500 mb flow generally under 25 knots. A
threat for strong storms will still exist though with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s aiding in around 500 J/kg SBCAPE along/east of the
Laramie Range. Small hail and gusty winds can be expected, but not
looking at an organized threat for severe weather. Temps today are
expected to be similar to Sunday, with 70s over the high plains of
southeast Wyoming and 80s over parts of the Panhandle. Showers and
thunderstorms should gradually diminish overnight with the loss of
diurnal instability, but there should be enough dynamic support to
keep at least isolated activity through early Tuesday. Much cooler
for Tuesday in the post-frontal air mass with 700 mb temps between
0-3 deg C. A few thunderstorms will be possible once again as mid-
level cyclonic flow remains intact, but they should be confined to
the higher terrain for the most part. The aforementioned shortwave
will move into the upper midwest on Wednesday, allowing a building
ridge over the CWA w/increasing deep subsidence as well as warming
thermal profiles. As such, convective potential should continue to

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Warmer and drier conditions as high pressure builds into the area.
700mb temperatures really begin to warm and by Friday are
approaching +12C. Should be seeing mid 80s in the Panhandle and
did go a little higher on temperatures than guidance suggests.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 506 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

VFR conditions expected next 24+ hours. Some thunderstorms
possible this afternoon into the evening hours.


Issued at 203 AM MDT Mon May 30 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days with non-
critical fuels and humidities/winds generally remaining outside of
critical thresholds. A cold front will move across the area Monday
night, keeping temperatures mild through Tuesday. A warming/drying
trend will commence on Wednesday, and continue through the rest of
the week.


Issued at 241 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The North Platte and Laramie Rivers will continue to run high,
but remain steady or slowly recede over the next couple of days.
The exception will be areas that receive moderate rainfall today
which could produce short-term rises in river levels. Warmer
temperatures mid to late week will increase snowmelt once again.
Therefore, expect rises on area rivers, creeks and streams by next


.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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