Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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