Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 300551
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1251 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM THE DAKOTAS TO KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVES TOP
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FOR TODAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDINESS INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS FORECAST
AROUND 28 CELSIUS WILL GIVE HIGH TEMPS FROM 97 TO 101 TODAY WITH THE
WARMEST AT HAYS AND MEDICINE LODGE. IF CIRRUS CLOUDINESS IS THICKER
THAN FORECAST THE HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT REACH 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD REACH 104 IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
FORECAST.

FOR TONIGHT, THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY. SOUTH WINDS OF 12 MPH WILL BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
AND RANGE FROM 72 TO 75 DEGREES. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TO COOL IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION RETROGRADING WESTWARD TO A POSITION FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS IT MOVES WEST, A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA ON TUESDAY WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WIDELY
SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OR MOVE SOUTH OUT OF KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

LATER IN THE WEEK, A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO
OUR SOUTH. MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE EAST
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S CELSIUS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH LATE WEEK, HIGHS SHOULD BE CLIMBING
BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, THEN MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 06Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH AT 12-22KT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICTING INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  99  66  90 /  10  20  20  40
GCK  71  99  67  90 /  10  20  20  40
EHA  72  97  68  90 /  10  20  20  30
LBL  73  98  71  91 /  10  20  20  30
HYS  72  97  66  88 /  10  20  20  40
P28  75 102  70  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...KRUSE



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