Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 211744
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016
High pressure aloft is at its peak intensity at midday, with a
clear sky and temperatures soaring on their way to 100 as of noon.
Heat index values will be most dangerous across eastern areas this
afternoon and early evening, and the heat advisory continues.
NAM forecasts scattered thunderstorms this evening along the
periphery of the ridge, across SE Colorado and SW Nebraska, with a
few storms hugging the northern CWA border overnight. Was about to
ignore this solution, until GFS came in with something very
similar, with isolated convection mainly north of Dodge City
tonight. HRRR also lends support to convection near Hays by late
this evening. Confidence is low on thunderstorm development. Weak
vorticity max rounding the ridge axis appears to be the only
forcing evident. Spread slight chance/isolated wording across
the northern zones overnight.
Friday...Still hot! High pressure remains quite strong, with no
changes in thickness or 850 mb temperatures noted. As such, high
confidence in widespread triple digit heat Friday afternoon.
Afternoon max temperatures from 100-106, with the most dangerous
heat indices again relegated to the far eastern zones and lowest
elevations. Heat advisory continues through evening. Hot and dry
for most, but isolated thunderstorms may find their way into
northern zones by evening where the high pressure ridge`s
influence is weakest.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016
Relief from the excessive heat will come by the beginning of the
weekend as the upper ridge begins to break down. It is not
impossible to see a storms across the I-70 corridor Friday night,
as weak shortwave energy rotates over the top of the mid level
ridge. The GFS supports a better opportunity for more widespread
thunderstorm chances by Saturday evening/overnight when the mid
levels become much less stable. Temperatures moderate back toward
normal climatological highs and lows in the extended period
(generally speaking next week).
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016
VFR expected to prevail through the TAF forecast. SW winds again
gusting to 25-30 kts this afternoon, with sct to bkn mid clouds
developing by evening. Surface winds weaken at 00z with another
round of modest low level wind shear overnight. 12z NAM/GFS models
are both forecasting scattered -SHRA/-TSRA during the 06-12z Fri
timeframe (especially near HYS), with HRRR solutions also
indicating convection near HYS by 06z Friday. Have low confidence
in these solutions, so only included VCSH/VCTS sparingly in the
TAFs for now.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 102 74 103 75 / 0 10 10 10
GCK 101 71 102 74 / 10 10 20 20
EHA 101 72 103 73 / 0 10 20 20
LBL 102 72 105 73 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 104 74 103 75 / 10 20 20 20
P28 104 76 106 77 / 0 10 0 10
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ030-031-044>046-