Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 220603
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
103 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Fairly dry conditions are expected today as short range models indicate
a weak upper level ridge of high pressure shifting slowly eastward
across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. A generally
weak westerly flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels will
limit precip chances today. There is a slight chance for drizzle/light
rain late tonight as a southeasterly upslope flow begins to draw some
moisture back into the region while a southwesterly flow aloft begins
to intensify downstream of an approaching upper level trough. Enough
lift will be present to support the potential for light, but less than
appreciable precip across central and possibly portions of west central
and southwest Kansas.
A warming trend will initiate across west central and southwest Kansas
today as surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes,
creating more of a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas
while lee side troughing begins to take hold across eastern Colorado.
This will set up a south to southeasterly flow across far western Kansas,
and in turn, draw slightly warmer into the region with H85 temperatures
well up into the teens(C). Cooler air will prevail across central Kansas.
Look for highs only up into the 50s(F) in central Kansas this afternoon
with the mid to upper 60s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017
Three distinct opportunities for badly-needed rainfall are
apparent in the long term forecast: 1)late Thursday through
Friday, 2) on Sunday, and 3) next Tuesday (one week from today).
A progressive series of strong shortwaves will keep the weather
active across SW KS through the next week, and it appears each one
will have a sufficient moisture supply to generate precipitation.
Thursday...Very windy and much warmer. Widespread stratus and
drizzle expected during the morning hours. Strong closed but
progressive upper low expected to be near Grand Junction, Colorado
by 7 pm, with a strong vorticity max and jet max rotating around
the base of the trough through New Mexico, aiming for SW KS. The
first and primary impact will be very strong south winds, in
response to strong cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Strongest
gradient is progged during the sunset/evening time period, when
GFS cranks 850 mb winds to near 60 kts. Strongest gusts, as high
as 55 mph, expected during the late afternoon. Intense warm
advection will result in a rapid warmup to near 80 for most
locations. The south winds will also facilitate strong moisture
advection from the Gulf of Mexico into central Kansas, with a
dryline firming up across SW KS during the afternoon. Intense
forcing will overtake this dryline during the late afternoon to
early evening hours, with shear/CAPE profiles favorable for
supercells and severe weather. Quality of moisture return, and the
timing of initiation (late evening as opposed to late afternoon)
will be the determining factors regarding the severity of the
expected thunderstorms. 12z ECMWF shows convection erupting across
the western CWA Thursday afternoon, then diminishing overnight as
the dryline retreats. Unfortunately, it appears our rainfall
prospects may shut down overnight into Friday morning, as a strong
dryslot wraps into SW KS, ahead of a strong 545 dm upper low near
Lamar. With this evolving synoptic setup, rainfall coverage will
not be as widespread as desired. Model blended pops grids came
down some this run, but are likely still too high. The downward
trend is in the right direction, and future trims are likely.
Friday...Closed low tracks SE into NW Oklahoma, with wraparound
rain showers possible. Again, rain coverage will not be what is
desired on Friday, as the deformation axis precipitation is
consistently being forecasted to remain north of SW KS. Again,
shower coverage has been reduced on Friday with this forecast.
Saturday...Sunny, dry and pleasant under shortwave ridging.
Modest NW winds.
Sunday...Active wave train continues, with a strong negatively
tilted shortwave spreading into Kansas during the day. Models are
fairly generous producing QPF with this system, particularly
across the eastern zones. A potent severe weather setup may evolve
for south central Kansas, which may involve the Barber county
Monday...Dry and north winds again, under transitory shortwave
Tuesday...More active weather likely. All models generate
additional precipitation, with ECMWF depicting a weaker shortwave
and 12z GFS showing a strong closed low in New Mexico. Either way,
the rain chances will continue, which is a good thing.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017
Low level stratus across central Kansas is expected to spread westward
into west central and southwest Kansas overnight bringing MVFR cigs
to KDDC, KGCK, and possibly KHYS. Once MVFR cigs develop, they are expected
to persist through early Wednesday evening. Easterly winds 10 to 20kt
will persist overnight through mid to late Wednesday morning as surface
high pressure across the Upper Midwest moves eastward into the Great
Lakes Region. Winds will then turn southeasterly 10 to 20kt Wednesday
afternoon as the surface high pushes further east while lee side troughing
develops across eastern Colorado.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 38 60 46 81 / 20 0 20 20
GCK 37 62 45 82 / 20 0 10 30
EHA 39 68 46 82 / 20 0 10 20
LBL 38 65 45 82 / 20 0 10 30
HYS 36 55 45 79 / 20 10 20 20
P28 42 57 49 81 / 10 10 20 20