Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 190518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Not much to say for a couple days, with strong high pressure in
firm control of SW Kansas weather. IR satellite imagery reveals no
clouds in Kansas this morning, and the clear sky will continue
today. The boundary layer is still quite moist, with a light SE
flow advecting moisture (upper 60s dewpoints) into the SE zones
this morning. Patchy areas of fog and reduced visibility are
expected for a few hours near sunrise, mainly SE of Dodge City.

Unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures are on tap this afternoon.
Continued to follow the warmest guidance, given statistical
guidance is likely not hot enough, and given how temperatures
overachieved on Sunday. Added a degree or two across the board,
with mid 90s at all locales this afternoon. Expecting to fall
several degrees short of the record highs for September 19th, but
the heat will be quite intense, with only a light SE breeze and
full sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Upper level high pressure continues to build over the central and southern
CONUS through Tuesday. One more warm day is in store for Tuesday with
increasing southerly winds as surface pressure falls in the lee of the
Rockies. Also on Tuesday, a strong upper wave digs into the Pacific
Northwest. This will help kick an upper disturbance off the coast
of southern California toward the central Plains late Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The GFS tries to develop some elevated nocturnal
convection from Hays to Dodge City late Tuesday night. While I can`t
totally rule this out, none of the other models are hinting at it.
Currently we are carrying less than 15 percent pops and a dry forecast
which I will leave as is for now. On Wednesday, a surface boundary
slips into the northern and western part of the forecast area which
could initiate a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

Late in the week, the medium range models show the upper level
trough over the Pacific Northwest intensifying as it digs into the
northern Rockies and Great Basin region. The upper low then slowly
moves east into the northern Plains through next weekend. Chances
for precipitation will increase again by late Friday and
especially into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016

Areas of reduced vis in BR/patchy fog expected overnight,
restricted to areas near and SE of DDC. Reduced vis to near 3sm
at DDC for a few hours this morning, but widespread fog is not
expected. Strong high pressure will provide excellent flying
weather (VFR/SKC and light winds) through Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  95  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  56  93  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  56  95  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  61  95  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
P28  66  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner



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