Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211201
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
701 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Expect a hot, dry, and windy short term period as a strong upper
level long wave trough continues to ooze into the Western United
States. This system will in turn help strengthen surface troughing
along the KS/CO border. Strong southerly winds and low dew points
will be in place across far western Kansas by this afternoon
leading to critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag warning
was issued earlier today to account for this. Skies will be mostly
clear through tonight with southerly winds remaining breezy. As
for temperatures, highs today are expected to reach into the mid
to upper 90s with lows tonight ranging from the low 60s along the
KS/CO border to low 70s across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

A wet pattern is expected Friday through at least the early part
of next week as the upper level low/trough slowly moves into the
Central Rockies. Upper level shortwaves will move up and towards
the area as this system advances eastward. Storm chances will
start out first across far western Kansas Friday evening,
spreading eastward as we head through the weekend. Precipitation
chances then look to end from west to east as we head into the
first part of next week. Precipitation chances could continue into
the mid part of next week as models suggest another disturbance
moving through the area. However, confidence is low. As for
temperatures, highs in the lower 90s Friday then range from the
upper 70s west to around 90 degrees across central Kansas Saturday
and Sunday. Highs then plunge into the 70s Monday through the mid
part of next week as arctic high pressure builds across the area.
Lows will generally be in the 60s Friday and Saturday night then
down into the 50s throughout the remainder of the long term
forecast. Upper 40s could also be possible Monday and Tuesday
nights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Another windy day is forecast for aviation interests, although no
major wind shift in direction is forecast through the period.
Maximum winds this afternoon will be 20 to 24 knots sustained with
gusts around 30 knots at times. An intense low level jet will
develop in the 03-06z time frame tonight, which will lead to LLWS
conditions through much of the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  70  92  69 /   0  10   0  10
GCK  96  67  92  66 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  92  63  88  63 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  95  67  91  67 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0  10
P28  98  71  91  70 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-
084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid


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