Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251821
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ANOTHER MAJOR ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
KANSAS REGION DURING THIS PERIOD (THIS EVENING). AHEAD OF IT,
THOUGH, WE WILL BE SEEING ONE MORE MILD DAY ACROSS THE SNOW-FREE
AREAS OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SINCE THE EDGE OF
THE SNOWPACK HAS RETREATED SOME, MORE AREAS WILL SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE
ARW CORE SOLUTIONS (WRF-ARW, RAP, HRRR) FOR TODAY`S TEMPERATURES --
ALL OF WHICH SHOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER
50S FROM WAKEENEY-HAYS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN TOWARD GREENSBURG-
PRATT. IT WOULDN`T BE TOO SURPRISING IF HAYS AND/OR PRATT HIT 60F.
THE FIRST WIND SHIFT TODAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL NOT BE THE
ARCTIC FRONT, BUT ANOTHER MOUNTAIN-CROSSING PACIFIC FRONT WHICH WILL
HAVE DOWNSLOPE WARMED AIR BEHIND IT. QUICK ON ITS HEELS, THOUGH,
WILL BE THE REAL ARCTIC FRONT. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
HAYS AREA AROUND SUNSET, AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS. EXPECT A RAPID
TEMPERATURE FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S BY 04Z (10PM CST) WITH A
CONTINUED FALL DOWN TO THE LOWER TEENS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, THE MESOSCALE MODELS AND EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOW A SIGNAL OF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A
SUBTLE LIFTING ZONE (MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/COLD FRONTOGENESIS)
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. THIS VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT EAST BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVES. LATER TONIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME 20 TO 30 POPS
(SNOW) RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER IN A ZONE OF UPSLOPE WHICH
WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS COLORADO, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
COLD DOME IN PLACE TO ACT AS A LIFTING SURFACE, ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AND ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS,
WITH SNOW POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASS WILL START TO
MODIFY SOMEWHAT, SO THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE SNOW,
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY GET EJECTED OUT
OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE WEST THEREAFTER, AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER COLD
SURFACE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS TRANSITIONED THE WINDS TO OUT OF
THE WEST AT KGCK AND KHYS. WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME NORTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHALL GET GUSTY FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30KTS. A BAND OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER CEILINGS
FURTHER UPSTREAM INDICATE THEY WILL STAY VFR. ANTICIPATE THAT
AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS COLD FRONT.
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FOR ALL SITES AROUND 12Z.

VJP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  14  23 MMM MMM /  20  10  10 MMM
GCK  14  23 MMM MMM /  20  10  10 MMM
EHA  15  24 MMM MMM /  30  30  30 MMM
LBL  17  23 MMM MMM /  20  10  20 MMM
HYS  11  22 MMM MMM /  10  10  10 MMM
P28  18  23 MMM MMM /  10  10  10 MMM

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...99


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