Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260835
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER CLOSED
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST, AND
ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND AROUND FRIDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME,
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT AS A ZONAL FLOW.
THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY TODAY, AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT 16G26MPH. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM HODGEMAN COUNTY TO
ELLIS COUNTY AND NORTHEASTWARD. TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SINCE THE HAYS, LACROSSE AND ST. JOHN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THICKER
CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GARDEN
CITY TO DODGE CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING, AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AND SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR, PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
DROP TO NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SUNDOWN THIS EVENING, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH
OF I-70, AND THE MID 20S DOWN ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE LATE WEEK INTO FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WARM-UP IS STILL ON
TRACK. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE THREE DAYS
(THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY) THAT WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH AN
UPDATED FORECAST HIGH OF 69 AT DODGE CITY AND LOWER 70S TO THE WEST
TO THE COLORADO BORDER. IF THE ECMWF MODEL IS CORRECT, SATURDAY MAY
BE WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH LOWER 70S SPREADING TO DODGE CITY WITH
UPPER 60S TO A PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE LINE.  THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE 700-500MB LAYER,
WHICH IS WHY THE 850MB MASS AND THERMAL FIELDS IN RESPONSE OFF THE
ECMWF SEEM MORE APPROPRIATE. NEVERTHELESS, OFFICIAL HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL STILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN ECMWF, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE
OVER THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL HIGH FOR SATURDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH, HOWEVER, AS AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARGING SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY CLOSE ON BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS, SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURE RIGHT AT SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 20S OVER MUCH OF THE WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST KANSAS
REGION BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THE COOLER ECMWF MODEL IS
FAVORED GIVEN PAST PERFORMANCE IN SIMILAR TYPE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTRUSIONS LIKE WHAT WILL BE SEEING SUNDAY. THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE WE USE FOR MAX/MINT (IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST) WAS LOWERED,
IN FAVOR OF ADDING GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE MOST RECENT AND
COOLER CONSRAW (CONSENSUS RAW TEMPERATURES FROM DETERMINISTIC MODELS
LIKE THE GFS, CANADIAN GEM, ECMWF). GIVEN HOW SHALLOW THIS AIRMASS
WILL BE SUNDAY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE CONSIDERING HOW ZONAL THIS FLOW WILL BE ALOFT AND
THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS AT ~700MB LATE
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS EVOLVE GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP TROUGH IS SUGGESTED COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WOULD ACTUALLY FAVOR SOME WARMING OF THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE AND
AN EVENTUAL EROSION OF THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS BATTLE IS
ALWAYS A BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST, SO THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES (AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES) GO
EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS,
BRINGING CIGS IN THE MID LEVEL RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
EARLY TODAY, AND WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND 15Z OR SO TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15G24KT. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND 23Z, AND CLOUDS
THIN OUT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE VRB06KT AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  26  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  23  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  51  31  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  27  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  21  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
P28  50  25  56  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE


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