Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 232322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
622 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Convection looks like a good bet tonight, but there is significant
uncertainty as to whether there will be any severe storms. A warm
front across the far southern part of the forecast area will
produce at least scattered storms as it lifts northeast during the
late afternoon and early evening, but extensive high clouds and an
east southeast surface wind is holding temperatures down north of
the front and will probably limit severe potential.

An upper trough moving across Minnesota should produce a thunderstorm
complex that moves across the forecast area during the middle to
late evening hours. Mid level winds are strong, so strong or severe
wind gusts are possible if they can mix down. Heavy rain potential
is also there as precipitable water is forecasts to rise to 2.15"
this evening.

Clouds, winds and high dewpoints will hold temperatures about 15 degrees
above normal tonight. A weak cold front will move through Sunday by
midday. There is not much cool air behind but more of a lowering of
dewpoints, which will make it feel a bit cooler by Sunday evening.
Highs will still be about 10 degrees above usual.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Upper level flow continues generally WNW for much of period with
periodic waves moving across state and nearby surface boundary.
Overall, little change needed in the long term part of the

Quiet weather for the start of the work week as ridging builds in
for a respite from the convection. Mild temps and lower dew
points with sunshine Monday and first half of Tuesday.

Next shortwave trof approaches late Tuesday. The best chance for
convection appears to be Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
but proximity of front and additional ripples in upper flow
maintains precip chances through the end of the week.

Overall, temps typical of late July.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

An area of showers will continue tracking through the TAF sites
early this evening. Although thunder is possible, most of the
current thunder is well to the south with better organized
activity. With sunset approaching will leave thunder out of the
TAFs with this issuance. Later tonight some models are producing
an area of showers and thunderstorms, however upstream activity
does not support this current scenario. With some runs not
producing anything overnight will side with what is going on now
and leave later periods dry, with amendments if something develops
later. A cold front will bring dry weather on Sunday with gusty
westerly surface winds.



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