Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 301926
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
226 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA IS
FINALLY HEADING EAST AS THE FRONTAL WAVE THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONT IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS
RIDGING EDGES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE LOSS
OF CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE TEXTURE TO THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. NWP MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOWS THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD AS IS. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST THE PROBABILITY FOR FROST IS A BIT MORE TENUOUS AS
ANOTHER WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER THE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS RATIONALE OF BUFFERING THE FREEZE WARNING WITH A
FROST ADVISORY GIVEN MOST EVERYTHING HAS BEEN PLANTED STILL HOLDS
SWAY AND WILL CONTINUE THIS HEADLINE AS WELL.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. DESPITE SUNSHINE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A SFC-BASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST AND PRODUCE A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MIDWEST FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GRADUAL WARMING
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER CANADA EXPANDS SOUTH AT TIMES AND GENERATES
DISTURBANCES THAT ROTATE THROUGH WISCONSIN INTERMITTENTLY. THE
PATTERN APPEARS TO BREAK DOWN...AND THE WEST COAST TROUGH GETS
KICKED EAST...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AVIATION CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE FM NNW-SSE THIS
AFTERNOON AS PCPN IN THE FRONTAL BAND PULLS AWAY FM THE AREA.
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS IN E-C WI...GENERALLY GOOD FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 300 AM TO 800 AM SUNDAY
WIZ005-010>012-018-

FROST ADVISORY FROM 300 AM TO 800 AM SUNDAY
WIZ013-019-021-030-
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI


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