Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 301736
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1136 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Clouds were increasing from west to east early this morning ahead
of an approaching mid level low seen on water vapor imagery over
the Twin Cities. This system will bring moisture back east, as
well as the chance for showers Today through Thursday as it slowly
tracks through the western Great Lakes region. Precipitation will
mainly be in the form of rain today, with some snow possibly
mixing in across the north and west. Given high temperatures today
are expected to be above freezing, snowfall accumulations should
be minimal. The best chance for precipitation today will be out to
the west closer to the mid level low and better moisture.

Precipitation chances tonight will be a bit better as the main mid
level low tracks through the cwa. Despite the fairly low QPF amounts,
kept POPs high tonight as this event still looks to be a high
coverage low QPF event. In other words most locations are expected
to measure, however amounts will be fairly light. With cooler
temperatures during the overnight hours snowfall is expected to
accumulate, generally in the 0.5 to 1 inch range. The highest
amounts will be across Vilas County,

By Thursday the aforementioned low will be tracking to the east,
with waning POPs as the day wears on and the lifting mechanism
subsides. Highest POPs will still be across Vilas County with a
boost from Lake Effect Snow from Lake Superior. Daytime heating
on the surface should keep snowfall amounts on Thursday fairly
limited, however Vilas County could grind out another few tenths
of an inch in more persistent LES bands. Snowfall totals over
Vilas County could amount to 1 to 2 inches tonight and Thursday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Thursday night through Saturday night should be dry across the
area as a surface low and mid level cyclone move away from the
state and high pressure approaches. Far north central Wisconsin
will be the exception with snow chances through Saturday morning,
but amounts there should be minor.

An approaching mid level trough and surface cold front will bring
precipitation chances back to the area for Sunday into Sunday
evening. This should produce mostly snow, but there may be some
rain or a mix of rain and snow in eastern, and parts of central,
Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances return for late
Monday night and Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal, but generally only
a few degrees, for the rest of this week through the first half of
next week. Though warmer than normal, it will likely feel much
colder due to the mild temperatures we have experienced this fall.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

MVFR cigs have overspread all but the lakeshore locations early
this afternoon, but this will change by mid-afternoon as the
large, slow-moving upper low shifts toward west-central WI. These
cigs are expected to gradually lower into the IFR range tonight as
the upper low continues to edge east across WI. Light
precipitation is forecast to accompany the upper low this
afternoon through tonight with types ranging from snow north to
rain south. Since the precipitation will be light, do not expect
much in the way of any accumulation, other than a dusting. As the
upper low slowly moves away on Thursday, cooler weather would turn
any rain into light snow with little or no impacts. However, the
clouds will hang around through Thursday with cigs only reaching
MVFR.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK


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