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000
FXUS63 KGRB 151136
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
636 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT JUST EXITING INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
AT 7Z. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FOR THIS PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THU.

TEMPERATURES PAST FEW HOURS BOUNCING AROUND AS NORTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES...WITH MTW ACTUALLY WARMING FROM UPPER 40S INTO MID 70S
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. PROBLEMS OF TODAY CONTINUE TO BE ON WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL BE UPGRADING TO WARNING FOR FAR
NORTHEAST WI.

RATHER DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY(TO AT LEAST 7K FT) WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY OVER SANDY SOIL REGIONS OF NORTHERN WI. GUSTY...MODERATE
NW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. 850 WINDS ACTUALLY
STRONGEST AROUND 40 KTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH WITH
EXPECTED MIXING WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO 20 TO 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TO PUSH EAST OF AREA ON THU...WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING EAST
LEADING TO SOME COOLING EAST AND SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. THOUGH MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z NAM BROUGHT
A LARGE AREA OF QPF...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH...INTO THE
STATE DURING THAT PERIOD WHILE OTHER MODELS WERE DRY. HAVE ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER PART OF
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
THE 00Z NAM CONTINUED TO SPREAD QPF OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY WHILE
OTHER MODELS WERE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE. HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS...BUT DRY IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT THE GREATEST
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST...BUT HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE THEN LIKELY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULT IN NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LLWS WIND
SHEAR THIS AM TURNING INTO GUSTY SFC WINDS BY MID MORNING.  POSSIBLE
SOME SMOKE FROM A FOREST FIRE OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY
REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM IN RHI OR AUW THIS
MORNING. WATCHING AREA OF PCPN MOVING OUT OF DAKOTAS. FORECAST TO SLIP
SOUTH OF AREA AND DIMINISH...THUS STAYED DRY THROUGH TODAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY IN THE IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH IN FAR NE WI...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR FAR NE WI FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST LEADING TO SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN HUMIDITIES. HEADLINES
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
WIZ012-013-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TE
FIRE WEATHER...MG