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000
FXUS63 KGRB 281708
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST US INCLUDING MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCKED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE FOCUS OF THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
BE WITH ANY PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR MASS
BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT 08Z...SAT IMAGERY INDICATES A PIECE OF ENERGY ABOUT 100 MILES
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND DROPPING SOUTHWARD. PROGS SUGGEST THE
COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING FOLLOWED
WITH A MODERATING TREND. BUT COOLING H500 TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOTAL TOTALS TO
THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY ALONG WITH PRODUCING STEEPER 850-500 LAPSE
RATES. PWATS CLIMB TO A MODEST 1.00 INCH THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AND
THEN THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY. SREF AND NAM PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY PCPN TODAY WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY. WILL ADD A
SMALL CHC MENTION AS WELL INCREASE CLOUDS TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS
PER SAT TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL END THE PCPN LATER
EVENING FOR A DIURNAL TREND. PCPN MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER
TUESDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT SAG
INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER LOW SWIRLING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL BRING A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN TO THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR SUNDAY...THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. SEVERE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS
AT 5000-6000 FEET AGL WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC