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000
FXUS63 KGRB 231135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A COOLER DRIER BUT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION TODAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LINE OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD
FRONT WAS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ILLINOIS
EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT UNDER
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

A FEW MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION...ECMWF LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED WHILE H5 TEMPS
COOL A LITTLE AND A SUBTLE VORT DROPS SOUTHWARD AS WELL. CU RULE
INDICATES A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE MID OR UPPER 50S. SAT IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A LONE SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE COOLING MID LEVELS AND ANY LINGERING
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. SINCE THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WESTERN RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH SOME BIG DIFFERENCE IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. DID RAISE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND
DAYBREAK. AVAILABLE WEB CAMS OVERALL CLEAR. LITTLE ORGANIZATION TO
CIGS THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS REPORTING AT VARIOUS LEVELS RANGING
FROM 1500 FEET TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER A PERIOD OF MIXED CLOUD
LAYERS THIS MORNING..EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......TDH