Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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171
FXUS63 KGRB 171134
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
634 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MOIST EASTERLY WINDS BLOWING OVER THE COLD WATER OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WAS RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG ACROSS THE REGION AT 09Z.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH AFTER SUNRISE. NOT MUCH
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL BE
AWHILE BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DISSIPATE AND HEATING BEGINS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD GET INTO THE 70S WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND 80F IS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE. JUST NOT SURE
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE.

THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE EAST AROUND
SUNSET. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS GREAT AS IT DID A FEW
DAYS AGO BUT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR
LARGE HAIL. SO THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS THERE BUT MAY BE
TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND LACK OF HEATING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY SHOULD BE BREEZY...COOLER AND LESS HUMID WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE FAR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE EAST BUT TEN OR MORE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

500MB PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATER NEXT WEEKEND.

EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD NOT BE
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW COUNTIES
ACROSS THE NORTH POSSIBLY NEEDING A FREEZE WARNING IF TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL...
BUT SHOULD RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE IN EASTERN WISCONSIN AROUND EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ049-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM






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