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000
FXUS63 KGRB 211032
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Convection trends today into Friday the first issue followed with
fog potential and then Friday afternoon max temps.

Early this morning, isolated showers and storms continue to
diminish over southeast Wisconsin as a cold front drops
southeastward. At 300 am the front pushed southeast of a line from
mtw to osh. Dense fog developed in the wake of the front across
parts of north central and central Wisconsin earlier overnight,
but drier air working into the area has eroded some of the fog in
the advisory area. With surface dewpoints lingering in the 60s
across northeast Wisconsin, potential of more fog early this
morning.

Surface high pressure settles into the north half of the state
today to push the front southward along with the better
instability. Bufkit data shows an increasing cap today due to the
warmer air 850 flow turns southwest during the morning. As a
result low level clouds and perhaps fog may be persistent across
parts of east central Wisconsin for at least this morning and
perhaps lingering into the afternoon.

MU cape values start low today but elevated cape levels increase
by tonight and a surface warm front lifts back north for a focus
of convection. Will keep the small chance pops tonight and Friday
morning as the warm front lifts northward. Its possible the
precipitation chances will start later this afternoon if the
instability and surface warm front make a quicker return. Progs
in good agreement with building elevated capes late this
afternoon as the 850 flow increases so will keep a small chance
over parts of central wisconsin and then lift this chance
northward tonight. Some potential of hail with the increasing
elevated instability and convection.

Decreasing clouds over central Wisconsin friday, following a warm
night and height 850 temps increasing to +20 will produce very
warm temperatures well into the 80s with a few lower 90s over
parts of central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

The forecast period will start out with record or near record
warmth on Saturday and Sunday as 500mb ridge dominates the eastern
half of the United States with a deep trough across the western
United States. A major shift in the pattern will evolve next week
as western ridge develops across the western United States with a
downstream trough across the eastern half of the country. This
will mean an end to the record or near record warmth this weekend.
Temperatures will gradually return closer to normal by the latter
half of next week.

Shower and thunderstorm activity north and west of the area
could spill over into far northern Wisconsin at times through
Saturday through Sunday night. The evolution of the upper
pattern will be a slow process as Hurricane Maria slowly
moves up the coast well offshore the United States. This
will slow down the arrival of the cold front until next
week. Still some differences on when this will occur, but
current thinking is the best chance of showers and storms
will be on Tuesday as the cold front moves across the region.
Will still have a chance of showers and storms on Monday to
account for the GFS solution. High pressure will build into the
region for next Wednesday, bringing gusty northerly winds and
cooler temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Observations and web cams suggests dense fog and IFR
clouds have become more patchy the last hour including over north
central Wisconsin where dense fog was more widespread overnight.
Still anticipate some patchy dense fog this morning, especially
with clearing skies, light winds, recent rainfall and an inversion
after the fropa last night. Cu rule indicates bkn cigs today and
parts of central and northeast wisconsin may see a return to MVFR
cigs due to progs suggest the inversion height starts at 2k feet
agl. For late today into tonight, the chance for storms will work
northward as a warm front lifts north across the state.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ005-
010>012-018-019.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......TDH