Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 230005
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
705 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AREA
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BAND OF MOISTURE WILL DISPLACE INITIALLY
DRY AIR MASS...THEN RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN NORTH AS A RESULT
OF WAA AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM. RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF RAIN THEN
EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROF MOVE THROUGH. WILL ATTEMPT TO
TIME BEST CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. GIVEN DRY INITIAL AIR MASS
OVER AREA AND WEAKENING STATE OF THE SYSTEM...RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE SOMETHING LESS THAN 22/12Z GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF 22/12Z
NAM AND ECMWF.

SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO SPEED UP
RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WIND...
COLDEST IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF EASTERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM MOVE EAST OF THE STATE.
THE 12Z ECMWF WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA
THAN ITS 00Z VERSION BUT STILL HAD SOME QPF IN THE EAST DURING
THE 00Z-06Z PERIOD ON FRIDAY...SO KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THEN.

THE 12Z NAM CONTINUED TO FORECAST MORE RAIN LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF QPF IN DOOR
COUNTY AND THE ECMWF DRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
PASSES EAST OF THE STATE AND A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT AND THEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN WARM AIR AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT
WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE IT COOLS OFF BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TIL THEN.

DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY
WILL BRING BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.