Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 311106
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA SECTOR OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEPART NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH LIKELY JUST PICKED UP A DUSTING
OR SO. FOCUS TODAY WILL BE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE. WARM START THIS MORNING WILL GET MAX
TEMPS A LITTLE BOOST DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DROPPING OVER THE AREA
LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS INDICATING
PLENTY OF POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. MODELS
NOT PRODUCING ANY PCPN TODAY BUT WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES TO THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH WHERE LIKELY BETTER SATURATED.
WINDS DO TURN NORTHWEST LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH FOR A WINDOW OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER VILAS BUT WINDS TURN NE
TONIGHT TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE A FLURRY MENTION
NORTH WITH THE PERSISTENT NE FETCH.

OTHERWISE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE MIDWEST IS THE PHASING SYSTEM
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MIDWEST SUNDAY
BEFORE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. DEVELOPING AND INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SHORE REGION TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...WITH THE FOCUS TOWARD
THE MANITOWOC LAKESHORE AT THIS TIME.

PROGS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SNOW BEGINS TO EDGE INTO CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT OR TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10 AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 21 FOR SUNDAY.
AGAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE LINE
AND ESPECIALLY MANITOWOC COUNTY COULD END UP WITH AN ADVISORY TYPE
OF SNOW...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE AS NEEDED. WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS MAY VARY...BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS PRODUCE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY...AGAIN ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AND RURAL OPEN AREAS. WILL BE CHALLENGING SINCE A TOO
NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY PLACE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INSTEAD. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONCERN IN THE HWO
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

TIMING OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST.

THERE MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN EXTREME EASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BACK...WHICH WOULD BRING THE LAKE EFFECT TO AN END IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BRIEFLY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AMONG THE MODELS IN THEIR
HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. 00Z VERSIONS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM-NH
ALL BROUGHT QPF INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE
NAM ALREADY HAD IT MOVING IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EC AND
GEM WERE SLOWEST AND SHOWED NOTHING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EC ALSO KEPT AREAS NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER DRY. HAVE KEPT
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT WAS A TAD LESS
AGGRESSIVE...AND HAVE SNOW LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THINGS
LOOK TO BE PRETTY MUCH DRY THE REST OF THE WAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LAKE EFFECT CHANCES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY.

OVERALL UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE DOMINATE CLOUD HEIGHT
OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW BREAKS TO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. BUT MVFR CIGS TO BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE STATE STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





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