Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 242344
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
644 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERSION ACROSS MUCH
OF FORECAST AREA TODAY....BUT ERODING ALONG THE EDGES AS MOISTURE
MIXED OUT. ADDITIONAL STRATUS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION TO DEVELOP.
DON`T EXPECT AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS TIME AROUND AS BOUNDARY
LAYER BETTER MIXED.

TRAPPED MOISTURE REGIME WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR A
PERIOD MID- DAY WITH EXPECTED DEEP MIXING.

TEMPS A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE SUNSHINE
SATURDAY WILL BOOST TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY`S CLOUDY
LOCATIONS DESPITE POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FCST FOCUS TO BE ON THE MOVEMENT OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROFS
ACROSS THE CONUS THAT WL IMPACT NE WI. THE FIRST UPR TROF IS SET
TO ARRIVE ON TUE...PRECEDED BY A WRMFNT/CDFNT COUPLET ON MON. THIS
WL BRING PCPN CHCS TO THE REGION BOTH DAYS. THE SECOND UPR TROF IS
FCST TO ARRIVE ON THU...BUT APPEARS WEAKER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THRU NEXT TUE AND THEN
SETTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAKENING RDG OF HI PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SAT NGT. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO
BE OVER WI AND WITH THE SFC HI IN OUR VICINITY...THIS SHOULD BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS WL ALSO BRING
A COOL NGT TO NE WI AND HAVE SHAVED TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER
N-CNTRL WI. LOOK FOR READINGS TO NOW RANGE FROM NEAR 30 DEGS
NORTH...TO AROUND 40 DEGS NEAR LAKE MI.

THE SFC RDG SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY BACKING TO A S-SE DIRECTION LATE IN THE DAY. DO EXPECT
TO SEE SOME HI CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FCST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WRMFNT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE MIDWEST.
STEADY WAA TO OCCUR AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +10C BY 00Z MON. THE
COOL START TO THE DAY AND SHORTER LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT HOURS WL HELP
TO COUNTER THE WARMING ALOFT. THUS...MAX TEMPS TO SETTLE MAINLY IN
THE 55-60 DEG RANGE.

THIS WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD INTO SRN WI SUNDAY NGT WITH WAA
CONTINUING THRU THE NGT. A 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WL PULL GULF
MOISTURE NWD AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SATURATE
SUFFICIENTLY ENUG TO BRING A CHC OF SHWRS TO THE ENTIRE FCST AREA.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHWR POTENTIAL...THE MDLS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (8H LI`S AROUND -2/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES)...THUS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS. CLOUDS/SHWR ACTIVITY WL
HELP HOLD TEMPS UP WITH READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LWR TO MID
40S OVER MOST OF NE WI. PCPN CHCS TO CONT INTO MON AS THE WRMFNT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TOWARD CNTRL WI AND A CDFNT ENTER FAR WRN WI
LATE IN THE DAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE AN ALL DAY RAIN AS
THE STRONGER WAA SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW
CHC CATEGORY PER PREVIOUS FCST. MAX TEMPS ON MON COULD BE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WRMFNT CAN GET. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
FNT WL PUSH INTO THE 70S...WHILE AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE FNT GET
STUCK IN THE MID 50S.

MON NGT HAS ALL THE EARMARKS OF BEING WET AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS EAST
INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. PLENTY OF LIFT FROM THE CDFNT...COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPR TROF...
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS TO NE WI. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY
NGT...THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AROUND (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT)...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CHC OF THUNDER IN THE FCST.
THE SHORTWAVE TROF TO THEN SWEEP INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE WITH
A DRY SLOT ROTATING INTO SRN SECTIONS OF WI...WHILE WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE ENCOMPASSES NRN WI. CAA TO DOMINATE AS WELL WITH 8H TEMPS
FALLING BELOW 0C BY 00Z WED. THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY RAIN SHWR OVER
CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI ON TUE AS THE CAA TAKES OVER AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. NRN WI MAY HAVE A BIT HIGHER CHC OF SEEING
MEASURABLE PCPN...CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW/WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.

FORTUNATELY...THIS SYSTEM IS OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND IS FCST
TO ALREADY BE LIFTING NE THRU ERN ONTARIO TUE NGT. HAVE KEPT A
MINIMAL POP OVER N-CNTRL WI AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TURN W-NW AND
A MINOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL EXISTS. A WEAK AREA OF HI PRES TO
MOVE ACROSS WI ON WED...BUT A LACK OF DRY AIR MAY KEEP SKIES WITH
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. WED WL ALSO BE THE START OF A COOL-DOWN IN
TEMPS AS THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE W-NW.

THE FCST FOR WED NGT/THU STILL LOOKS DEBATABLE AS THE MDLS WAFFLE
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF. THE GEM/GFS MAINTAIN
A WEAKER SOLUTION THAT HARDLY GENERATES ANY PCPN. THE ECMWF HAS
CHANGED ITS TUNE AND HAS GONE FROM A STRONG UPR TROF TO A WEAKER
ONE NOT TO DISSIMILAR FROM THE OTHER MDLS. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A SMALL CHC OF SHWRS TO NE WI.
PCPN CHCS COULD LINGER INTO THU NGT BEFORE A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES
BUILDS SE TOWARD WI ON FRI. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRI...
BUT IT WL BE COOL AND BLUSTERY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY OVER NC/C WI TO SPREAD EAST EARLY THIS
EVG. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR/LOW MVFR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT FAIRLY RAPID IMPROVEMENT AND CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH RHI/AUW/CWA NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HOUR...AND THROUGH
ATW/GRB/MTW AROUND 08Z. EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY WEST WINDS TO
PREVAIL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN WI THIS EVG...
AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING
SATURDAY.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






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