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000
FXUS63 KGRB 262046
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
246 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SSE AS IT APPROACHES FAR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.  AHEAD OF THE LOW...MODEST WARM ADVECTION AND MID-LEVEL
FGEN ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A BAND OF SNOW...BUT THE BEST RETURNS
APPEAR TO BE EXITING CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
LATEST DATA SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
THE BEST WARM ADVECTION PULLS OUT...SO SHOULD SEE ONLY VERY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR A PERIOD UNTIL BETTER RETURNS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ARRIVE.   STILL SEEING OBSERVATIONS AT MARSHFIELD AND
MEDFORD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR UNKNOWN PRECIP...SO NO PLANS TO
CHANGE THE ADVISORY.  SOME POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD GET EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING...BUT NO INDICATIONS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE
THOUGH.  SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND IMPACTS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.

TONIGHT...CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS FAR SW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN
ILLINOIS.  ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN THAT WILL
PROLONG THE LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.  THE SNOW WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID TO LATE EVENING...BUT
SATURATION WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...SO
LEFT THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIP.  THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN
WHERE A HALF INCH OR INCH WILL LIKELY FALL.  LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FROM
SE WINDS MAY LOCALLY BOOST TOTALS HIGHER OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA
FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT.  MOST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LIGHT PRECIP
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST...THOUGH FLURRIES COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.  LOWS MAINLY
BETWEEN 19-24 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...BECAUSE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
CONTINUING...THINK OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING HOURS.  AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD INTO
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE THE LOW OVERCAST ERODE
FROM THE WEST AND ALSO THE EAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SUNSHINE.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK WE WILL
GET 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER DOOR MARINETTE
AND FLORENCE AND FOREST COUNTIES.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE LIGHT. DRY AND COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY SHOULD BE QUITE COLD WITH SUBZERO HIGHS POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW...DROPPING VSBYS TO MAINLY IFR...LOCALLY
LIFR...WILL SPREAD EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FZDZ MAY IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT HIGHER IMPACTS SHOULD RESIDE WEST OF THIS
AREA.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOSTLY FALL INTO THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SNOW AND SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY BE DIMINISHING
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  PLENTY OF LOW CIGS
UPSTREAM...SO THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN IFR/MVFR OVERCAST THROUGH MUCH
OF TUESDAY MORNING.



MPC.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ035.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC