Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 190741
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
241 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

COLD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AS EVIDENCED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST
THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WISCONSIN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE HIGH WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT AS DRIER AIR IS
ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST AND THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC.
DESPITE THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED
BY THE UNSEASONABLY COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH HIGHS OF 50 TO 55 ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AN
IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING SCENARIO WILL SET UP WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL APPROACH RECORD LOW TERRITORY WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH
LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WHERE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
PREVENTED FROST AND FREEZE...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

GIVEN HOW DEEP BELOW FREEZING THE NORTH WILL GET WILL ISSUE A
FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND FREEZING SO WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER THE FOX VALLEY AND THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES CHANCES FOR FROST ARE A BIT MORE TENUOUS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH THE CAVEAT THAT
HEADLINES COULD BE ISSUED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF FROST
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO RECOVER TO AROUND 60
DEGREES...WHICH IS STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THAN USUAL DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS...AND TIMING
OF RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND IS ALSO AN ISSUE.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD FROST. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z THURSDAY BUT THE 00Z GEM
MOVES IT THROUGH FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS...00Z NAM OR 00Z ECMWF.
THE NAM AND ECMWF BOTH PRODUCE SOME QPF IN WISCONSIN...BUT NOT IN
THE SAME LOCATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
WITHOUT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS
WAS A BIT FASTER WITH THE RAIN WHILE THE ECMWF KEPT NE AND EC
WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
MODEL BLEND THAT HAS CHANCE POPS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

CLOUDS AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ON NORTHWEST WINDS. MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE VFR CIGS LATER TUESDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ020-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH






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