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000
FXUS63 KGRB 041730
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1130 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SEVERAL FEATURES TO FOCUS ON TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR SNOW CHANCES.
FIRST AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER
THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH ADVISORY
LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WEB CAMS SHOW ALL ROADS SNOW COVERED. BUT OVERALL
BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE DONE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MORNING
COMMUTE...SO WILL HANDLE WITH A SPS FOR NOW.

SECOND AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING AND TRYING TO CATCH UP WITH THE FIRST
AREA OF SNOW. VSBYS DUE TO SNOW WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE RANGING
FROM 1-2 MILES SO SOME MINOR ACCUM POSSIBLE...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AS THE FIRST SYSTEM. INITIAL EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT REACHING FAR
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND 13Z BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BUT BEST ISENT
LIFT DEPARTS LATE MORNING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DIMINISHING
MORNING TREND.

ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE STATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATE WITH A WEAK UPPER JET INTERACTING
WITH THE 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE CHC
POPS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. ITS
POSSIBLE THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MAY DEVELOP A BIT FASTER THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL BECOME A CHALLENGE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKE SHORE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER. NORMALLY WOULD BE
CONCERNED WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT DRY
FEED OF AIR AND SOME ICE COVER LIMITS POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
BRIEF WARM UP POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST...MAY BE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY.
MOST OF THE MODELS BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WRF/GFS/CANADIAN BRING A WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE ASSUMING IT IS ALL
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 850MB TEMPERATURES GETTING PRETTY CLOSE TO 0C...
THUS SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADDING FREEZING RAIN...BUT DID ADD SOME SLEET.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATER MONDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 0C...THUS PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN
WITH LATER SHIFTS IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS TRUE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.  THEREAFTER...EXPECT CLOUDY BUT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING
DUE TO THE INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR.  A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BYPASS THE
REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM NE TO SW
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL EXIST
TONIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT
THINKING THE VERY DRY AIR AND ICE OVER THE LAKE MAKES THE CHANCE
VERY SMALL.  IN GENERAL...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ONCE
THE LIGHT SNOW EXITS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MPC