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000
FXUS63 KGRB 152028
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST
ISSUANCE...CORRECTED START TIME FOR HEADLINES.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MORE SNOW FOR THE NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

UPR TROF POSN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WL BE RE-ENERGIZED BY
PACIFIC SHRTWV HEADING IN FROM THE WEST. THE TREND LATER IN THE
FCST PERIOD WL BE TOWARD A LOWER AMPLITUDE MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. BACKING UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE RE-AMPLIFYING UPR TROF
COMBINED WITH CYCLONE WORKG EWD FM THE PLAINS WL BRING A SIG SNOW
TO NRN WI THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTER THAT...THERE WL BE ANOTHER
CHC OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND. PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY END UP AOA
NORMAL ACRS THE NRN PART OF THE AREA...AND AOB NORMAL ACRS THE S.
TEMPERATURES WL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL...BUT SHOULD MODERATE
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD...WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM WHICH FEATURE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND COOLER PICTURE WITH INCOMING SYSTEM. NOT TOO OVERLY DIFFERENT
THAN WHAT PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD GOING.

UPPER TROF EXITING THE REGION TODAY...PLENTY OF CU AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...FLURRIES DEVELOPED OVER CWA WITH COLD AIR ALOFT.
ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM MOVE IN. LOOK FOR
LATE AFTN HIGH TEMPS...WITH SIG DROP AS SUN GOES DOWN GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

WAVE MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AS DROPS INTO
PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THAN
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN LATE WED AFTN. SIG DYNAMICS WITH
SYSTEM VIA RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH CANADA...H8 WAA ON
THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT FOCUSED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. DOES INTERSECT BEST SNOW GROWTH
REGION...THOUGH HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON MOISTURE GIVEN SOURCE
REGION. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY. HOW FAR NORTH IS
STILL IN QUESTION BETWEEN MODELS. BELIEVE ALL SNOW WHERE WATCH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...THUS WILL UPGRADE TO WARNING. FURTHER SOUTH
WENT WITH ADVISORY AS TOTALS WILL BE MORE AFFECTED BY WARM LAYER.
LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE IF COOLER TEMPS WIN OUT. LIGHT
SNOW EXPECTED TO START JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER THE WEST...WITH MUCH
OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTING BY MID MORNING. NO CHANGE TO TIMES ON
WARNING NEEDED.

WILL SEE INCREASING EAST WINDS OVER THE AREA AS LOW MOVES
EAST...WHICH MAY CAUSE ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW LATE IN THE DAY WED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FOCUS OF THE FCST IS ON SYSTEM TRACKING ACRS THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE. 12Z RAOBS FM THE PLAINS WWD
WERE QUITE DRY...AND SFC DWPTS ACRS THE ENTIRE RGN ARE DRY. THAT
SUGGESTS SIG LIFT WL NEED TO GO INTO ACHIEVING SATURATION. WITH
SUCH SYSTEMS...THE SIG PCPN IS CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE TRACK
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR ALSO WL OPEN THE DOOR TO SIG
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LIMITING THE NWD ADVANCE OF ANY WARM
LAYER ALOFT. OF ALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...THE ECMWF FITS THE
BILL WITH THESE ASPECTS OF THE FCST THE BEST. IT HAD ONE OF THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE QPF TOTALS FOR THE EVENT...AND KEPT THE TEMPS
ALOFT COLDER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR THESE REASONS...TRENDED
STRONGLY TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE FCST GRIDS.

AS MENTIONED YDA...THE THE TIMING OF PCPN CHCS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FCST WL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE FLATTENING UPR FLOW.
THE CONSENSUS-BASED XTD INITIALIZATION GRIDS SEEMED REASONABLE...
SO NO SIG CHGS WERE MADE TO THEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/COLD TEMPS ALOFT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
CU FORMATION AND AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY. CLOUDS AND
PCPN WILL LESSEN WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS TO RHI/AUW/CWA TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER FAR NORTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR WIZ013-018-019.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE