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000
FXUS63 KGRB 040301 AAC
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
901 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

THE ONE ADDITIONAL CHG I PLAN TO MAKE IS OPEN THE DOOR TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DENSE FOG IN THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
TOMORROW. FAIRLY HIGH DWPTS TO THE SE. IT/S NOT CERTAIN THOSE WL
GET HERE /DEPENDS ON WIND DIRECTION/ BUT IF THE HIGHER DWPTS
CREEP UP INTO THE AREA WHERE WE/VE NOW GOT SNOW ON THE
GROUND...DENSE FOG WOULD BE A GOOD BET.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

WELL...HERE GOES NOTHING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL ALL
PLAY OUT...BUT NEED TO DO SOMETHING WITH THE HEADLINES GIVEN WE/VE
GOT PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPIRING IN LESS THAN 1/2 HOUR. WL DROP
THE E/SE...EXTEND MOST OF C-NE INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR FZRA/FZDZ...
TAKE MOST OF THE WATCH TO AN ADVISORY AND START IT IMMEDIATELY...
AND TAKE VILAS UP TO A WARNING AND START IT IMMEDIATELY. EXACT
CODING FOR ALL THAT IS BELOW. WSW WL BE OUT ASAP. IT WL TAKE MORE
TIME TO GET ALL THE GRIDS ADJUSTED AND SHIPPED.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 738 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

NEED TO MAKE SOME DECISIONS ON HEADLINES...BUT COURSE OF ACTION IS
NOT CLEAR. SNOW BAND SHIFTG E. NOT MUCH GOING ON IN CENTRAL WI
NOW...BUT INFO RECEIVED HERE AT THE OFFICE INDICATES ROADS IN
TOUGH SHAPE. THAT AREA WL PROBABLY SEE PCPN INCR AGAIN LATER
TNGT...WITH FZRA/FZDZ THE MOST LIKELY PCPN TYPE. CURRENT ADVISORY
ONLY GOES TO 03Z. COULD EXTEND THAT...BUT THEN WE/VE GOT AREAS TO
THE N WITH NO HEADLINES GOING WHERE AT LEAST SOME SN MAY GO ON
ALL NGT. FZDZ/FZRA MAY ALSO CREEP NWD INTO THAT AREA DURING THE
NGT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO ADVANCE NWD.

WL CONT TO LOOK THIS OVER...AND HOPEFULLY REACH A DECISION IN
ABOUT AN HOUR.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...RESULTING IN A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.

EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW OF COLD AND DRY AIR EAST OF AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT PASSED THROUGH WISCONSIN. THAT AREA
REMAINED DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW FELL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING...WITH ISOLATED REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE IN LOCATIONS THAT HAD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

PRECIPITATION INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTED
NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY.
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES THAT SHOWED UP IN THE RADAR MOSAIC WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME MIXED OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY SWITCH TO RAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
LIKELY TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATION OF ICE
IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER SNOWFALL TONIGHT. SO TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THERE COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 357 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

WINTER STORM WILL BE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE COLD
AIR POURS INTO THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

WINDS TOO WESTERLY FOR SIG LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THROUGH SATURDAY.
COMBO OF WINDS AND ARCTIC PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL OF WIND CHILL
HEADLINES LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHTER WINDS SETTLE INTO THE WEEKEND.

RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE BEGINS SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WESTERN
TROUGH DEVELOPS. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON SURFACE
WAVE TRACKING OVER THE STATE TOWARD MONDAY WITH MORE ACCUMULATING
SNOW. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO POUR BACK INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWS WAKE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

EVEN AFTER THE PCPN BAND NOW WORKING ACRS THE AREA EXITS...
GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WL PERSIST WITH MOIST ELY FLOW.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ ACRS MAINLY C-NE WI. SFC TEMPS IN
E-C SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE ICING POTENTIAL THERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ022-
035>040-073-074.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ020-021-
030-031.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ018-019.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ010>012.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI