Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 280900
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
400 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Noisy broad upper trough over the Great Lakes region will provide
more clouds as well as a few periods of showers today into this
evening and perhaps toward southern Wisconsin on Friday.

Short waves will dive into the upper trough today through Friday to
continue to gradually deepen the upper trough. The First wave
which brought heavy rain to parts of the state Wednesday and
Wednesday night is departing east central Wisconsin this morning
while water vapor satellite imagery shows another piece over the
Dakotas moving toward the area. This second wave is progged to
reach western Wisconsin this afternoon and phase into the broad
upper trough. As a result clouds will likely be more persistent
today and tonight. Showers and isolated storms will be a bit more
challenging due to drier air feeding into the area on northeast
winds at the surface. For east central and central Wisconsin,
pwats still progged to be around 1.50 inches for much of today and
will still be near 1.00 inches through Friday. Will continue the
chance pops going today but just slow down the ending trend from
the north this morning.

Surface dewpoints still lagging in the 60s over central and east
central Wisconsin today and evening, were producing some weak cape
values. Will confine any remaining thunderstorm mention today
over central and east central Wisconsin. With more clouds also
expected today, max temps have been lowered.  Will also linger
small shower chances over areas near southern wisconsin as the
broad upper trough slowly drifts over the southern Great Lakes
region through Friday. Relative humidity levels will be on the
decline for the remainder of the work week, especially over
northern Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Above normal temperatures expected to continue through much of the
period. Except for an isolated shower Friday evening across our
southwest counties...dry conditions should prevail through much of
the region. WRF/GFS continue to depict some precipitation Saturday
afternoon, thus continued a small chance of showers and storms
Saturday afternoon across the southwest counties.

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern Sunday into
Monday. An unsettled weather pattern will set up Monday night
through Wednesday. It is possible a complex of thunderstorms will
move across the region later Monday night into Tuesday. It is
possible these storms could be strong or severe. Will hold off on
adding it to the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) until I see a few
more runs with consistent timing and location of the complex.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

A cold front will continue to slowly sag south overnight, while a
mid-level shortwave trough to work east across WI. This will
continue to bring a chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms to
much of the region. Cigs/vsbys are expected to drop into the MVFR/
low-end VFR conditions late tonight/early Thursday morning as
cooler air begins to push into Wisconsin. Models have trended
slower with the clearing trend on Thursday as additional shortwave
troughs move E-SE through the NW flow aloft. This could lead to
extending the chance pops through most of Thursday with northern
WI perhaps seeing a drying trend in the afternoon as high pressure
attempts to build south from Canada. MVFR cigs are expected to
linger Thursday morning and then slowly rise to low-end VFR cigs
in the afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......AK


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