Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 231015
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
515 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Monday
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A back door cold front will continue making headway through
Wisconsin today, assisted by Lake Michigan in producing what is
known as a pneumonia front that will push through the lakeshore
counties. Models have trended a bit quicker with the passage of
this cold air this run, with the front through north-central
Wisconsin this morning, and east-central and northeast Wisconsin
late this morning and early in the afternoon. Sections of central
Wisconsin will be able to hold out until late in the afternoon
given their distance from the lakeshore. This front will act to
cause a wind shift to the northeast with falling temperatures
during the afternoon hours. Therefore highs will occur in the
morning across several locations depending on when the front
tracks through. With the quicker advance of the front sided with
the cooler MET guidance with this forecast package as the previous
forecast was counting on a later arrival of the front. Adjusted
highs today down into the 40s across north-central and far
northeast Wisconsin, with 50s across east-central and low to mid
60s across central Wisconsin. The cold front may produce some
light rain across north-central Wisconsin given better moisture.
However this activity is not expected to make it very far south as
model soundings dry up precipitously as you head further south.

The front will stall out over southern Wisconsin tonight with dry
weather expected during the overnight hours. Lows tonight behind
the front will range from around 30 across north-central
Wisconsin, to the middle 30s across central and east-central
Wisconsin.

The front will lift back north as a warm front on Monday, bringing
warm air and gusty southerly winds to the area as highs soar into
the 60s away from the Great Lakes and far northern Wisconsin. The
combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds and relative
humidities falling into the upper 20s could cause some fire
weather concerns to start the new work week.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Mid level short wave energy ejecting from a trough setting up
over the Plains will bring chances for precipitation for much of
this part of the forecast.

Showers are possible across the northwest part of the forecast
area on Monday night with an approaching surface low and a mid
level short wave passing north of Wisconsin. Rain chances will
spread across the entire area Tuesday afternoon and evening as the
next low and short wave take a more southerly track across the
state. Freezing rain is possible, with some accumulation, later
Tuesday night as colder air makes its way into northern Wisconsin,
but this should mainly be confined to Vilas County. Expect any
freezing precipitation to change to all rain Wednesday morning as
surface temperatures warm above freezing. Precipitation chances
continue through Thursday as the next surface low and the main mid
level trough pass through Wisconsin. A change to snow or mixed
rain and snow is expected across the area Wednesday night.

The next approaching surface low and mid level trough will bring
another chance for precipitation starting Friday afternoon in
central and eastern Wisconsin and then spreading across the entire
forecast area for Saturday. Models differences in the timing and
track of the system lead to low confidence in this part of the
forecast.

High temperatures should be well above normal on Tuesday but a
cooling trend will result in daytime temperatures several degrees
below normal for the latter half of the work week. A warm up to
near normal highs can be expected for Saturday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A Canadian cold front will drop into northern Wisconsin overnight
and early Sunday, bringing MVFR and local IFR ceilings to parts
of north central and far northeast WI. Scattered showers are also
anticipated across the north toward daybreak, and lingering into
Sunday. The front will continue to shift south on Sunday, and
accelerate as it moves down Lake Michigan. Although clouds will
also increase farther south, flight conditions should remain VFR
in most spots, and little or no rain is expected. Surface winds
will turn northeast to east in the wake of the frontal passage.

West winds will increase to around 30 knots just off the surface
overnight, but conditions are a little too borderline to add LLWS
to the TAFs.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Low relative humidities are expected across portions of central
Wisconsin ahead of an approaching cold front. With temperatures
expected to soar into the lower to middle 60s and dew points in
the lower to middle 30s relative humidity values of around 30
percent are expected this afternoon, causing elevated fire weather
concerns across these areas.

On Monday the cold front will lift back north as a warm front
across the western Great Lakes. This will bring warm temperatures
back to the region along with gusty southerly winds and low
relative humidities. Near critical fire weather conditions are
possible on Monday as temperatures soar into the 60s with winds
gusting to 20 to 25 mph as relative humidities fall into the
middle to upper 20s.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
FIRE WEATHER...Kurimski



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