Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 082326
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
626 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF OR END THIS EVENING...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH WHERE
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO
THE RECENT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS
INTO THE AREA...COMBINED WITH HEATING OF THE DAY TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT ONE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL EXIT ON THURSDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY SEASONABLE
STRETCH OF WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WHETHER WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN OFFER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR
LEAD.  NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND THOUGH.
BOTH THE GFS AND GEM CREATE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF PRECIP IN
THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT IT HAS THE LOOK OF
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF FOR LATER PERIODS AS
WELL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE SAME TIME THAT A LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION.  AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING FROM
SCT EVENING CLOUD COVER.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY WHICH LOOKS SEASONABLE AND DRY.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
70S.  THEN CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
NIGHT.  WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY.  FORCING IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.  PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
THE HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE AXIS.
SEVERE CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION DUE TO LOW INSTABILITY.
DESPITE WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS...CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION.  UNCERTAINTY CREEPS HIGHER ON SATURDAY WHEN A
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...BUT IF UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES LIKE OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS...THIS FRONT COULD TURN OUT TO BE MORE ACTIVE.  WILL
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE CLARITY.  THE NEXT FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH LATE ON SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE.  TURNING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND LIKELY TO END OVER MOST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING EXCEPT
THE FAR NORTH. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...VFR CIGS WITH
SCATTERED MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH






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