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000
FXUS63 KGRB 022135
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
335 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

PRECIPITATION CHANCES...TYPE/TYPES...AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS COULD RESULT IN...BUSTED
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ENHANCED LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM LAYER THAT MAY RESULT IN MORE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION THAN FORECAST.

INTERNAL SNOWFALL GUIDANCE HAD 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PART
OF VILAS COUNTY AND MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LOOKS LIKE A SHOT OF SNOW AS THE BAND FROM MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS PUSHES NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION WITH WEAKER LIFT AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSES...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HAVE OPTED TO START OUT WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VILAS
COUNTY AND ONEIDA COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL THERE...AND CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
SNOW TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

A SLOW EVOLVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT...CONTINUED WAA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW NORTH AND TURNING
TO A RAIN/SNOW OR ALL RAIN ELSEWHERE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE WARM AIR AND AFFECTS PCPN TYPE
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND TRACKS OF THE H8 LOW AND SURFACE LOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE H850 LOW FOR THE
NAM IS JUST WEST OF DLH...OVER IOWA FOR THE ECMWF AND CENTERED
OVER EAGLE RIVER FOR THE GFS.

COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THE NORTH AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. WILL ADD A LATER DAY SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW
FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING CIGS...VSBYS...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE/TYPES.

CIGS WERE STILL VFR IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT
17Z...WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE WAS SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING. RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A MORE SOLID LINE OF PRECIPITATION WAS SHOWING UP FROM
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN SHOW WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS SNOW ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING OR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THINK MAINLY SNOW ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL LIQUID OR ENDING FOR A WHILE OVER
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG