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000
FXUS63 KGRB 300348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE UPR PATTERN INVOF NOAM IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH UPR TROFS
OVER THE EAST AND OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...AND STG
RIDGING FM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NNEWD...ACRS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THIS IS A VERY STABLE PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHG TO THE
TROF AND RIDGE POSNS IS EXPECTED DURING THE FCST PERIOD. BUT A
SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIR IN THE ERN NOAM UPR TROF WL
CAUSE THE FLOW ACRS THE ERN CONUS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES WL START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES
RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA. BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...PCPN AMNTS WL
BE MODEST AND MOST AREAS WL PROBABLY END UP BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT WAVE AND A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
NIGHT AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THERE WAS SOME FOG IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAD IT IN GRB AND RHI.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE RELATIVELY QUIET MID-SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN
FCST CHALLENGE WILL CONT TO BE WHEN TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FCST. TIMING OF SHRTWVS BECOMES MORE DIFFICULT FARTHER INTO
THE FCST...SO RELIED MAINLY ON TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK.

850 MB TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLER AIR WL BE REINFORCED FM
THE N AGAIN LATER NEXT WK. NO SIG CHGS TO THE BROAD-BASED BLEND
OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS USED TO INITIALIZE THE EXTENDED PART OF THE
FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

GIVEN EARLIER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS GO LIGHT. AT THIS
TIME HAVE HIT TYPICAL FOGGY SITES HARDER...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WED AFTN AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......TE