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000
FXUS63 KGRB 230605
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
105 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA AT 19Z. LINE
OF CU SEEN WITH/JUST BEHIND FRONT, OTHERWISE RADAR MOSAIC OVER
STATE QUIET. WEAK WAVES IN WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF STATE
PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH NOT DOING WELL TO MAINTAIN SELF.

MAJORITY OF MODELS SUGGEST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH ANY
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS JUST HOLDING ON
TO SMALL CHANCE SOUTHEAST. MESOANALYISIS SHOWING CIN WEAKENING GRB
AND SOUTHEAST. WITH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE, AM NOT
COMFORTABLE GOING DRY UNTIL FRONT IS TOTALLY THROUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES...A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
CYCLONE PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONCE
THE CYCLONE REACHES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER...BUT
START SHOWING DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF RAIN
IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS AND ADDING IT TO
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR
ALOFT...BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SURFACE AND UPPER
SYSTEMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

PATCHY IFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH