Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 290409
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1109 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER WESTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...SO
EXPECT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS SYSTEM PULLS SOUTH OF AREA AND SUN
SETS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE...A BIT EAST OF SUNDAY SYSTEM. TIMING AND LOCATION SUCH
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED IN FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST MU-CAPES RISE TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HIGHER VALUES ASSUME SOME SUN. ALTHOUGH SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE MODEST AS EVIDENCED BY FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND WET BULB
ZERO HGTS AROUND 10K FT SUGGEST STORMS WITH HAIL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE AND MODEL BLEND FOR TEMP FORECAST GIVEN
FAMILIAR PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES... VARIABLE CLOUDINESS...A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ML.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AN UPPER TROF AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS NC/C WI OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT THINK THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES.

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C WI...WHERE
RECENT RAINS HAVE OCCURRED. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS
THERE. THE FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY MORNING.

A SHORT-WAVE TROF AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD GENERATE
NMRS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSTMS AT RHI/AUW/CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVG HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE
EASTERN TAF SITES IS NOT AS HIGH...SO WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON
TSTMS IN THE ATW/GRB/MTW TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....JKL
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH



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