Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 111107
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
607 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW TO SLIDE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WERE REACHING THE GROUND WITH THE
RADAR RETURNS OVER MINNESOTA...SO NO CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH THE MINOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS INITIALLY
LIGHT PCPN EVENT.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER. PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
AT LEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER CLOUDS WITH RETURN WAA FLOW
MAY BE ON THE INCREASE TO PUT A HALT TO FALLING TEMPERATURES.

ANTICIPATE PCPN WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE. THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION
LIKELY WILL BE FOCUSED WITH THE 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE 850
LOW TRACKS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.

WITH COOL START AND WIDESPREAD RAIN...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TAD
OVER THE NORTH...AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST ARE PRECIPITATION
TIMING...TYPE AND AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS ALSO A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY SINCE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING AS A
SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXITS THE STATE.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LI VALUES IN CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING...SO HAVE A MENTION OF
THUNDER ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN 00Z-06Z
SUNDAY. POPS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE STATE.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS IT MOVES ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO
THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...BEFORE THE SNOW QUICKLY COMES
TO AN END DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ON TUESDAY. USED MODEL BLEND AND CAME UP WITH CHANCE POPS
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY AND FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING
AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES OVER THE STATE TODAY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS POSSIBLY PRODUCING POCKETS OF MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS. VFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TONIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVER. FOR AN OUTLOOK INTO THE WEEKEND...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

WISCONSIN RIVER SYSTEM SOUTH OF MERRILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RISE
LATE THIS WEEK. THE HIGH FLOWS MAY BE AIDING WITH HIGH WATER
LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG RIB RIVER WEST OF WAUSAU. SOME
SECTIONS OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER BETWEEN THE MANY DAMS WERE NEAR
FLOOD STAGE. THE DUBAY DATA IS MALFUNCTIONING EARLY THIS MORNING.

WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND...MORE SECTIONS OF
THE WISCONSIN RIVER WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE LEVELS.
THIS WEEKEND. THE WOLF RIVER MAY ALSO FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE BUT AT MINOR LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THE PROJECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT...FLOODING AFFECTS WILL BE
ELEVATED.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH
HYDROLOGY......TDH






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