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000
FXUS63 KGRB 021758
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER FAR NC WI
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR PUSHED IN FROM THE
WEST. THE INCOMING HIGH WILL BRING SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AS WAA DEVELOPS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AND LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING
OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LINGERING DRY WEDGE AROUND 850 MB...
BUT EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...AS A 130-150 KT JET AND S/W ENERGY ARRIVES...
AND ISENT LIFT INCREASES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD
RANGE FROM A DUSTING IN FAR NE WI...TO A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.

ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN WI...WITH STRONG WAA/ISENT LIFT ON THE
NOSE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ AFFECTING OUR SE COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS...0.25 TO 0.33 INCH...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SE HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE (750-700 MB MIXING
RATIOS OF 3.0-3.5 G/KG) WILL RESIDE. EVEN THOUGH QPF WILL BE
LOWER OVER NORTHERN WI...HIGHER SNOWFALL TO WATER RATIOS AROUND
15:1 WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE. OVERALL...
EXPECT MOST PLACES TO RECEIVE 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY.
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME INCLUDE TRENDS TOWARD LOWER QPF ON RECENT
MODEL RUNS...LINGERING DRY WEDGE AT 850 MB EARLY IN THE DAY...AND
UNFAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.

AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE START TIME FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE 3 AM TUES...WITH MUCH OF NE WI STARTING AT 6 AM
TUES. WILL END THE ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES AT 6 PM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AXIS AT THE START OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN AT LEAST SOME LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COLD...DIRECTION
WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AND THERE IS ALSO
NOT A LOT OF OPEN WATER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR VILAS COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE RETURN FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING SOME WARMER AIR TO THE STATE STARTING FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY
SOME UPPER AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
AREA. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
LIFR OR LOW-END IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
13-18Z PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF +SN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH
VSBYS OF 1/4 MILE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
MINOR BLOWING/DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL
WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012-018-019-030-035>037-045-048>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ013-
020>022-031-038>040-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KIECKBUSCH
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......BERSCH