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000
FXUS63 KGRB 200332
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1032 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO REAL CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. TAIL END OF SHORT WAVE NOW
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI. CONVECTIVE INDUCED VORT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN/IOWA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME OVER THE WESTERN LAKES. HAD A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER ON LAKE
BREEZE OVER DOOR/KEWAUNEE COUNTIES AND ON EDGE OF MID CLOUDS OVER
OCONTO COUNTY...ALL WHICH HAVE DIED OFF. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWING
SBCAPES NEAR 1K OVER NORTHWEST WI. HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER INTO EARLY EVENING NORTH TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARM LAYER ALOFT...AROUND
12K SO T DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY/A SHOWER IS MORE LIKELY.

SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY TO KEEP
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DRY.

LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...LEADING TO MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. WINDS A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
WESTERLY SUN TO KEEP LAKE BREEZE CONFINED TO ALONG COAST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

TYPICAL SUMMER TIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL. 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL BRING A ZONAL FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATE LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY JULY 28TH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY EVENING. FORECAST
BECOMES COMPLICATED AFTER MIDNIGHT. 00Z JUL 19 ECMWF DEPICTED MCS
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED
THIS MCS AFTER INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THIS ACTIVITY DOES MATERIALIZE (DEVELOPS
OR MOVES INTO THE AREA). MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPPED BASED ON THE
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.

FORECAST BECOMES MUDDLED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HOW WARM TUESDAY WILL
GET. IF ECMWF IS RIGHT...TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE CONVECTION BY 12Z ENTERING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING TUESDAY...THUS
MUCH COOLER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER
ECMWF FOR HIGHS TUESDAY. SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WOULD
SUGGEST STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...ASSUMING CONVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE EARLY THAN EXPECTED
AND NOT ALLOW US TO WARM UP. DECIDED TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WHEN OR WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. MUCH COOLER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VFR AT THE SURFACE. AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER
MAY CAUSE LOWER VISIBILITY AT ALTITUDE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM