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000
FXUS63 KGRB 142259
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
559 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A COOL WEEK. MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MID-WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPR FLOW ACRS NOAM IS PRESENTLY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...WITH THE MEAN
TROF POSN OVER THE PLAINS. THE PLAINS TROF WL TEMPORARILY FILL
SOME AS STG SHRTWV SHIFTS EWD...THEN AMPLIFY AGAIN MID-WK AS THE
NEXT SHRTWV ARRIVES FM THE W. THE TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE FCST PERIOD WL BE FOR THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
FLATTEN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME.

THIS IS A COOL WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FCST AREA. BACKING UPR
FLOW WITH THE REAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF WL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINTRY PCPN TO MAINLY NRN WI MID-WEEK...WITH THE BETTER PCPN
CHCS SHIFTG INTO THE SE PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SHRTWV
EJECTS OUT OF THE TROF LATER IN THE WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS WL NOT
HAVE THE DIRECT INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE THAT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
DID...SO PCPN AMNTS WON/T BE NEARLY AS HEAVY. BUT AMNTS FOR THE
PERIOD AS A WHOLE WL STILL PROBABLY END UP AOA NORMAL. THE
ABUNDANT CLDS... PCPN...AND LCN OF THE FCST AREA N OF THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...AND WELL BLO
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

COLDER WEATHER TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. SHORT WAVE FEATURE NOW OVER
IOWA...TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. IT AND
ASSOCIATED JET FEATURE KEEPING CLOUDS AND FLURRY ACTIVITY GOING
OVER CWA. MORE ENHANCED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST WI
MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH FEEL CURRENT
FLURRIES WILL HOLD. OVER THE FAR NORTH...NORTH WINDS AND COLD
ADVECTION BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO VILAS
COUNTY.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS SHIFTING
EAST INTO STATE. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AS HIGH MOVES IN. MAINLY DRY ON TUE...THOUGH
CYCLONIC FLOW TO CONTINUE ALOFT. PLENTY OF CU SEEN UPSTREAM
TODAY...THUS BUMPED UP CLOUDS BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY POPS. FEW
FLURRIES ALSO POSSIBLE WITH TROF MOVING THROUGH THOUGH CHANCE TOO
SMALL TO PUT IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPR FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WL BACK SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NGT AND WED
AS SHRTWV AS THE NEXT PAC SHRTWV DIGS SE INTO THE MEAN TROF POSN
OVER THE PLAINS. THAT WL LEAD TO A STG ISENT LIFT DEVELOPING...
ESP ACRS NRN WI. THE ATM WL STILL BE QUITE COLD AS THE CANADIAN
AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA TDA WL HAVE ONLY A LIMITED AMNT OF TIME
TO MODIFY. MOISTURE WL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INTIALLY AT LOW-
LEVELS...SO EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. THE RESULT
WL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PCPN ACRS THE N. THE MAIN QUESTIONS
ARE NOW FAR S IT WL GET. SINCE MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED...SIG LIFT
WL BE NEEDED TO ACHIEVE SATURATION. THAT SUGGESTS FOCUSING THE
GREATEST PCPN OVER THE FAR N. ALSO TRIED TO SLOW THE EVENT A
BIT...AS UPR FLOW WL BE UNDERGOING SIG CHGS AND MODELS OFTEN ARE
FAST IN SITNS SUCH AS THIS. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS ACRS THE N
IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE NRN 4 COUNTIES
THIS AFTN. IT/S POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE
FARTHER S AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE TO SUPPORT A WATCH IN THESE
AREAS ISN/T QUITE THERE YET. WE/RE STILL WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
EVENT...SO LATER SHIFTS CAN EXPAND THE WATCH SWD IF NECESSARY.

THERE WL BE A LULL IN THE PCPN ONCE THE LEAD WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
PUSHES OFF TO THE E THU...BUT THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL JUST
SE OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL PCPN WL PROBABLY SURGE NEWD IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...THIS TIME MOST LIKELY AFFECTING THE SE PART OF
THE AREA. STRUCTURED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY WERE
TO END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER. SO PCPN TYPE WILL AGAIN BE A FCST
ISSUE.

THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL PCPN CHCS IN THE XTD PART OF THE FCST WL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AS THE FLOW FLATTENS. MADE NO SIG
CHGS TO THE CONSENSUS-BASED XTD INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A FEW STRAY FLURRIES WILL END THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR CIGS...VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN IF WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE KRHI TAF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD BACK TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS NEAR BANKFUL OR ABOVE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OR RISE A BIT FURTHER GIVEN YESTERDAYS RAIN/SNOWFALL. COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL SLOW THE MELT OF CURRENT OR ANY EXPECTED SNOW AND LIMIT POTENTIAL
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ005-010>012.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
HYDROLOGY......TE