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000
FXUS63 KGRB 271937
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
237 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE LNGWV PATTERN IS UNDERWAY. UPR TROFS
WL SETTLE IN OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AN UPR RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY STABLE PATTERN...
WITH THE MAIN FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FCST
PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THAT WILL OCCUR WL BE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE FLOW ACRS THE CONUS AS THE COLD AIR
WITHIN THE UPR TROFS SLOWLY MODIFIES.

THE NW UPR FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES RIDE SEWD ACRS THE AREA AND INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES UPR TROF. BUT THE MAIN POOL OF VERY MOIST UNSTABLE
AIR WL REMAIN WELL TO OUR S...SO WITH MOISTURE LIMITED...PCPN
AMNTS WL BE MODEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOST WIDESPREAD
SO FAR TO DAY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE PEA
SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AROUND MIDDAY OVER NORTHERN OCONTO AND
MARINETTE...BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.  JUST BEHIND THE UPPER
LOW...A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.  AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS...THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND TIMING THE END OF THE PRECIP AND FOLLOWED BY
CLOUDS/TEMPS.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  BEHIND THE LOW...PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS EVIDENT BY MID-LEVEL DRYING AND A CAP
BUILDING AT AROUND 750MB THROUGH THE EVENING.  BUT LEFT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH ABOUT
MID-EVENING AS MID AND LOW LEVELS STILL LOOK RELATIVELY MOIST
THROUGH THIS TIME.  AS THIS IS OCCURRING...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD OCCUR BEHIND ITS PASSAGE.  THIS CLEARING WILL WORK INTO FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAST
BY LATE IN THE EVENING.  BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL PUT A CHILL IN THE
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH
TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL MAKE
FOR A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL MID-SUMMERS DAY.  SHOULD SEE DIURNAL
CU POP AGAIN BY LATE IN THE MORNING ONLY TO BE CAPPED OFF AT AROUND
750-700MB.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TOUGH TO ADD MUCH RESOLUTION TO THE FCST BEYOND THE DIURNAL TREND
FOR MORE CLDS AND SHRA DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...AND A MIN
IN THE CLDS AND PCPN CHCS LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING.
STAYED CLOSE TO BROAD BASED BLEND OF GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
THROUGHOUT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF REDUCTION OF CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR OR
MVFR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE EXITING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING
AROUND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH...A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  THEN ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR THOUGH NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY.  SHOULD SEE GOOD
FLYING WEATHER TOMORROW WITH VFR DIURNAL CU BUILDING BY LATE
MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......MPC