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000
FXUS63 KGRB 050428 AAB
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1028 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

COORD W ARX AND MQT...AND HAVE COMMITTED TO LETTING THE ADVISORY
EXPIRE AT 04Z AS SCHEDULED AND THE WARNING FOR VILAS EXPIRE AT
06Z. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THERE WL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE FAR E AT 03Z...BUT COLD FRONT IS
SWEEPING IN FM THE W SO IT WON/T LAST LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
EXTENDING THE FOG ADVISORY. WL SEND UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE ARND 03Z
TO DROP THE FG.Y AND AGAIN ARND 04Z TO DROP THE WW.Y.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 753 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

WL DROP THE FG.Y FOR THE SW CORNER OF THE FCST AREA. VSBYS INCRG
PRETTY QUICKLY ONCE THE WINDS GO ARND TO THE SW. THE REST OF THE
FG.Y EXPIRES AT 03Z...AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOW
VSBYS IN THE FAR E...DON/T THINK IT WOULD BE WORTHWHILE EXTENDING
IT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

WL LEAVE WINTER WX HEADLINES INTACT. TEMPS ABV FZG...SO NO
ADDITIONAL FZG PCPN ACRS THE W NOW. BUT TRAVEL CONDITIONS STILL
REPORTED AS POOR. AT THIS POINT...PLAN ON LETTING THE WINTER WX
HEADLINES EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

UPPED WIND GUSTS...ESP IN E-C WI RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. DOWNWARD
MIXING OF WLY FLOW BY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S /KTS/ FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS WL PROBABLY
SETTLE BACK FOR A TIME...BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND CAA CONTINUES TO PROMOTE DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

LOW PRESSURE WAS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AT
21Z. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850MB HAS BROUGHT ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IT MAY
COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR THE FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH BEFORE ENDING. DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S OVER SNOW COVERED OR COLD GROUND WILL PRODUCE DENSE FOG
OVER MOST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE SURFACE
LOW INTENSIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
FALL LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AND THE CHANGE FOR SNOW LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
NEAR THE LAKE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PLUNGE WIND CHILL READINGS
TO AROUND 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY...TO 10 TO 15 ABOVE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ALONG THE LAKE TO
AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN MANY
PERIODS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOME MODIFICATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
EARLY INDICATIONS THAT 1-3/2-4 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. ONE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE IS THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
-11C TO -13C...AND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE THERE COULD BE
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ACROSS DOOR...KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC
COUNTIES ON TOP OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT. TOO EARLY TO SORT OUT
THOSE DETAILS...BUT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES BY ON MONDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR IS POISED TO SINK SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUSLY
LOW WINDS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

VSBYS IMPROVING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...AND HAVE
INCORPORATED THAT TREND INTO THE TAFS. TOMORROW LOOKS WINDY WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE MORNING...THEN DECR CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI