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000
FXUS63 KGRB 090019
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
619 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MORE TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLE THAT WHAT WE/VE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO
THE PAST FEW MONTHS.

BROAD WESTERLY UPR FLOW IS IN PLACE ACRS NOAM...WITH MODEST
AMPLITUDE AND SOME ILL-DEFINED SEPARATION INTO NRN AND SRN
STREAMS. THE PATTERN WL LOSE AMPLITUDE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AGAIN. BY MID-WK...WE/LL BE BACK TO A WRN RIDGE
AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH...THOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS AMPLITUDE
THAN MOST OF THE WINTER. THE PATTERN SHOULD FLATTEN A LITTLE
AGAIN LATE.

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WL ALLOW MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASSES TO
FLOW ACRS THE AREA AT TIMES...THOUGH POLAR AIR WL DOMINATE AT
OTHER TIMES. THE RESULT WL BE A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES...BUT UNLIKE THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THE HIGH
POINTS WL BE ABV NORMAL. OVERALL FOR THE PERIOD...TEMPS WL
PROBABLY END UP AVERAGING PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

WX SYSTEMS WL GENERALLY BE COMING TOGETHER AS THEY CROSS THE
RGN...AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MV OFF TO OUR EAST. THAT COMBINED
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO THE WLY UPR FLOW WL KEEP PCPN AMNTS
BLO NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

WL BE WATCHING A SYSTEM PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE
LITTLE CHC OF SEEING PCPN THRU THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
LEAVES TEMPS AS THE MAIN FCST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE CNTRL PLAINS NWD THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN MANITOBA.
DRIER AIR ADVECTED INTO WI WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND ALLOWED FOR A MAINLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON OVER NE WI. TEMPS HAVE ENDED UP ABOUT 10 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE RDG OF HI PRES IS FCST TO SAG SEWD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TNGT WITH WAA DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HI ACROSS
WI DURING THE OVRNGT HOURS. THIS WAA...COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH
OF A WRMFNT FROM THE WEST...WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID/HI CLOUDS
TO NE WI MAINLY AFTER MIDNGT. THE TIMING AND OPAQUENESS OF THESE
CLOUDS WL DETERMINE HOW FAR TEMPS WL BE ABLE TO DROP TNGT...
ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. BASED ON HOW FAST
TEMPS FELL THIS MORNING WHERE SKIES CLEARED OUT AND THE FACT THAT
THE INCOMING CLOUDS WL NOT ARRIVE TIL AFTER MIDNGT...PREFER THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD SEND MIN TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...EXCEPT AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO RIGHT ALONG LAKE
MI.

W-SW WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC RDG OVER THE SE CONUS AND AN AREA OF
LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA...WL CONT TO BRING WAA TO WI ON
SUNDAY. 8H TEMPS MAY SURPASS +5C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IF NOT
FOR THE MID/HI CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WE WOULD SEE A LOT OF LOCATIONS
GET INTO THE 40S. FOR NOW...HAVE COOLEST MAX TEMPS NEAR LAKE MI
(MID 30S)...WHILE PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND CNTRL WI MAY BE ABLE TO
CRACK THE 40 DEG MARK WITH THE HELP OF HIGHER ELEVATION TAPPING
THE WARMER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

SEEMS THAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE COOLING EFFECT OF A DEEP
SNOWCOVER IS OFTEN MINIMIZED IN SITUATIONS WITH STG DEEP WLY FLOW
LIKE WE ARE EXPECTING MONDAY. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
WARMEST LEVELS IN NEARLY 4 MONTHS MONTHS /SINCE MID-NOVEMBER/.
SHOULD SEE SOME 50S IN THE TYPICAL WARM SWATH FM WAUTOMA TO
WAUSAUKEE DESPITE THE SNOW COVER.

COOL FRONT WL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MON OR MON NGT...BUT
WITH WNWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT COLDER AIR TO
LAG WAY BACK TO THE NW. COLDER AIR SHOULD STILL BE SETTLING INTO
THE AREA TUE AS SHRTWV IN EVOLVING SRN STREAM GENERATES A SIG WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THE TREND OF THE MODELS OVER THE PAST 24 HRS HAS
BEEN TO SHIFT PCPN WITH THE WAVE FARTHER N. BUT THE OVERALL LOOK
OF THE PATTERN IS STILL ONE WHERE THE SIG PCPN STAYS TO OUR
S...WITH SRN PARTS OF THE AREA MAYBE GETTING BRUSHED BY THE NRN
EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. EDGED POPS ACRS THE S UP A BIT...BUT
NOTHING BEYOND CHC CATEGORY.

NOTHING TO REALLY QUIBBLE WITH IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE REST
OF THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THEN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......SKOWRONSKI
AVIATION.......ESB