Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 242346
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
STORMS OVERNIGHT MISSED THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY SOME
SHOWERS MAKING IT TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AT 19Z
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD TO NORTHWEST
IOWA...AND A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WERE
CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT 19Z
MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWED THAT CENTRAL WISCONSIN HAD NOT YET
DESTABILIZED. FARTHER NORTH...MUCAPES WERE AS HIGH AS 500J/KG WITH
NO CIN. RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE STATE WHERE MUCAPE WAS MORE THAN 1000J/KG. MODELS HAD SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT
THIS DID NOT SEEM READILY APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

STORMS SHOULD MAINLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR...WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 00Z AND ABOUT 08Z. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AT ANY LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE WEATHER FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY TRACKS EAST...ALLOWING FOR TROUGHING
TO TRACK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
A SURFACE HIGH BRINGING SEVERAL PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER DURING THE
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN AREAS OF CIGS FROM 035-045 AGL CURRENTLY CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCLUDING THE RHI...AUW...AND CWA AIRPORTS.
THESE LOWER END MVFR CIGS WILL MOVING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING OR BETWEEN 0030Z AND 0200Z...WHICH INCLUDES OSH...GRB...ATW
AND MTW.

AT 2330Z...RADARS TO THE WEST SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND NEAR A COLD FRONT ALONG THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND
SOUTH OF DULUTH. LATEST SPEED OF THE STORMS WERE EAST SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.  MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS OVER IOWA INTO WESTERN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY REACH
CENTRAL AND NC WI BETWEEN 03-05Z AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
EAST. INSTABILITY MUCH LESS OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN SO CONVECTION
MAY STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER OVERNIGHT.

PATCHY MVFR CIGS NOTED OVER MINNESOTA IN THE COLD FRONT WAKE...SO
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......TDH



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