000
FXUS63 KGRB 131944
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
244 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH ONLY SOME
DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO WORRY ABOUT. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE QUIET WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH
EAST OF THE REGION. RIDGING ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS
UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MID/UPPER CLOUDS TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ANY
RAIN/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...WHERE
TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40. WITH LOWS
FLIRTING WITH THE MID-30S...ADDED A LITTLE PATCHY FROST OVER VILAS
CO. SIMILAR TEMPS ALOFT...MINUS THE COOL NORTH WIND...ON
FRIDAY...SO HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE TODAY/S
READINGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THERE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

MODELS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH MAIN DIFFERENCES WITH
SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
GENERAL BLEND OF GFS/NAM/EC FOR EARLY PERIODS...THEN TOWARDS GFS
ENSEMBLE LATER PERIODS.

ON FRI NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER AREA AHEAD OF
CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES AND HOW WILL AFFECT CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED
TO SOUTH AND WEST OF STATE FRI NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING
COMPLEX DEVELOPING VCNTY OR OVER WESTERN WI IN THE
EVENING...MOVING INTO CWA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS LLVL JET SHIFTS
WEST AND SYSTEM MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HAVE TAILORED POPS
HIGHEST SOUTHWEST CWA.

ON SATURDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WITH CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE.  DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO STATE BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
MODELS TRENDING DRIER THIS CYCLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SHORT WAVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TO PASS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME FORECAST IS DRY...THOUGH FEW MODELS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE
WAVES PASSING IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SPITTING OUT SOME QPF.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

A BROKEN TO SCATTERED 3000-4000 FT CUMULUS CLOUD DECK AND NORTH
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE...ALONG WITH THE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...NICE FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......BERSCH