Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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909
FXUS63 KGRB 292353
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
553 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Skies were mostly sunny south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Wausaukee
line with mostly cloudy skies to the north. Temperatures ranged
from the middle 30s across the north, to around 50 at Manitowoc.

Some clearing will continue to push north this evening, then
clouds should move back in later tonight as upper low pivots
across the area. Big story for Wednesday will be increased chances
for rain and snow during the afternoon, especially west of the Fox
Valley. Air temperatures should be several degrees above freezing,
thus expect little accumulation on area roads, bridges and
sidewalks. Did not stray far from guidance for lows tonight, but
leaned toward the cooler met guidance for highs on Wednesday due
to expected cloud cover and precipitation.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 213 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Precipitation trends with the remnants of an upper low and some
weak lake-effect Wednesday night, and with a couple systems moving
through later in the weekend/early next week, are the main
forecast concerns.

The upper low will drift east Wednesday night, and though it will
likely be weakening, it is expected to be a bit stronger than
previously thought. Have increase pops well above the preferred
model blend, especially over our southwest and far southern
counties. These areas will likely see a dusting to a half inch of
snow on grassy surfaces. Also increased pops substantially over
north central WI, especially over Vilas county, where some lake
enhancement will occur as winds become north-northwest, and
lake-H8 delta-t`s increase to 13 to 14 C. Lake effect will
continue on Thursday, but gradually decrease. Will probably see
snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches over northern Vilas county.

Upper troughing will linger across the region through the rest of
the work week, with scattered snow showers mainly in far north
central WI.

Models have backed away from the idea of a significant storm
early next week, and are now focusing on a strong system next
Wednesday night/Thursday. General model concensus is for a short-
wave trof to move through the region on Sunday, and possibly again
Monday night into Tuesday. Will not carry anything higher than chc
pops at this time. Will need to keep an eye on the storm for the
middle of next week, as GFS/ECMWF are quite similar on the
strength and timing, considering this is a Day 9 forecast.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 513 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Cigs will change little tonight ranging from CLR-SCT VFR conditions
over east central Wisconsin, lower end VFR or MVFR cigs over
central Wisconsin and mainly a lower end MVFR cigs over north
central Wisconsin. The upper low over the northern plains
responsible for the widespread clouds over the northwest half of
the state will continue to drift into the Great Lakes on Wednesday
and pulling more lower end VFR or higher end MVFR cigs into the
region. Winds will continue to relax tonight and remain light
Wednesday.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......TDH



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