Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 272340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
640 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

An upper trough will move across the region during the late
afternoon and evening hours, while a surface cold front also
drops south across the area. Some scattered thunderstorms are
expected during the mid afternoon hours as the air begins to
destabilize again after earlier clouds and precipitation. More
organized convection over western Wisconsin will move into our
area during the late afternoon and probably weaken during the
evening as surface heating is reduced. Still could get some decent
wind gusts and some hail. Main threat is likely heavy rain with
local 1 to 2 inch amounts possible.

Drier air will arrive from the north Thursday with the chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms limited to areas south of highway
29. Highs will be at or below normal with lower relative humidity
than the last few days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Any lingering showers should shift out of our southern counties
Thursday evening, as Canadian high pressure and associated drier
air edges into the forecast area. Although a few models generate
spotty and weak afternoon convection at times, the general
concensus is for a dry period from Friday through Monday, along
with a gradual warming trend.

As the Canadian high shifts east Monday night into Tuesday,
southerly return will lift a warm front toward the forecast
area, resulting in a chance of thunderstorms. The chance of
storms will linger through the middle of the week. Very warm
and muggy conditions appear poised to return during this period,
along with potential for locally heavy rainfall, as precipitable
water values increase to around 2 inches.

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Active evening across northeast WI as a cold front slowly sags
south, a surface wave moves along the front and a mid-level
shortwave trough to push east across the area tonight. Vsbys drop
into the MVFR range under any thunderstorms this evening. The
precipitation is expected to become more scattered overnight,
however cigs/vsbys will lower into the IFR/MVFR range as cooler
air and light northeast winds take over. Cannot rule out a few
showers through Thursday morning until the mid-level trough exits
the region. Cigs/vsbys should gradually improve to VFR conditions
later Thursday morning with some sunshine mixing with the clouds
in the afternoon.



LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......AK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.