Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 261751
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1151 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN WAS
PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION AT 09Z.
MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA SCATTERED OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING
FOG.

THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY TODAY AS
A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW SO DON/T
EXPECT MUCH. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
FRO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND MOVE
ACROSS MICHIGAN SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH
LESS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY WHERE THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL REMAIN AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE MILD WEATHER PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS WILL COME TO AN END
AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...WHILE CLOSED 500MB LOW POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. UPPER TROUGH RIDGE BECOMES SO AMPLIFIED...WARM ADVECTION
AT 850MB WILL COME FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THAT IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN IF YOU ARE LOOKING
FOR WARM WEATHER.

ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH LIGHT
SNOW ALONG ARCTIC BOUNDARY AS A FEW MODELS HAVE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT.
DID ADD A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THERE
ARE SMALL CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AT TIMES. DESPITE THE VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST...TRAJECTORIES
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME AND
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY JUST STAY NORTH OF VILAS COUNTY
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO FRESH SNOW COVER FROM
THE EXPECTED SNOW EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS OVER THE FOX VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY...INCLUDING ATW AND
GRB...WILL LOWER TO MVFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE BY MID-AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND BRING A BAND OF SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS
TO THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST
VISIBILITIES...EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY RHI TO IMT AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ESB





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