Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGRB 291725
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY TODAY TAKING THE RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT. THEN UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE RECENT
RAINFALL AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STABLE UPPER AIR
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK...CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A RIDGE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL PREVENT MUCH...IF ANY...ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION FROM
OCCURRING....WHILE GENERATING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.  A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND WILL WORK FOR THIS FORECAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BENEATH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT SOUNDINGS REMAIN RATHER
DRY.  PROBABLY LOOKING AT AN INCREASED FOG THREAT RATHER THAN LOW
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM PERIOD.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIP SINCE IT BECOMES RATHER SHEARED BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE REGION.  THE EXTENDED BLEND PRODUCES SLIGHT
CHANCES...AND WILL STICK WITH THAT.  FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WAVE....THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS WARM SO THAT SOME 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN NRN WI...THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY NOT BUDGED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED SFC TROF
AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF STILL HAVE TO EXIT THE REGION...THUS
THESE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS MAY HANG AROUND THE REMAINDER OF NE WI
THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR THESE
CLOUDS TO THIN OR SCATTER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WOULD ALLOW THICKER FOG TO FORM
WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE LIFR/IFR CATEGORIES LATE TNGT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FOG WOULD THEN TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN
OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.