Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 280335
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HI PRES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS MAIN
FCST FOCUS TO BE ON TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AS READINGS COULD
REALLY DROP OFF ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A RDG OF HI PRES EXTENDED FROM
THE SRN PLAINS NEWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST INTO CNTRL ONTARIO. WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WRN ND. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED
EARLIER CU DECK HAD ESSENTIALLY EVAPORATED AS VERY DRY AIR
OVERSPREAD WI. DEW POINTS RESIDED MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

THE SFC RDG WL DRIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND WITH A
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE OVERHEAD...WE ARE LOOKING AT A COLD NGT
ACROSS NE WI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND THE VERY DRY
AIR MASS WL COMBINE TO BRING NEAR IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE ONLY THING LACKING IS FRESH SNOW WHICH
WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT QUITE A RANGE
IN TEMPS BETWEEN NRN WI WHERE THERE IS STILL A SNOW PACK AND CNTRL/
E-CNTRL WI WHERE ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW REMAIN. LOOK FOR
READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER FAR N-CNTRL WI...
10 TO 15 DEGS ABOVE ZERO OVER CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS THE SFC RDG HEADS TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES/UPR REACHES OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SAT...A RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WI WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE SW. OTHER THAN SOME HI CLOUDS DRIFTING BY...
ANTICIPATE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODEST WAA TO
BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AND THIS WL PROVIDE A BOOST TO TEMPS. DESPITE
THE CHILLY START TO THE DAY...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
30S NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 30S TO LWR 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TYPE WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A PCPN TYPE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. MOST MODELS SUPPORT MAINLY
SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SLEET OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SW TO
NE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON PERIOD. GIVEN A
SLOWER CHANGEOVER...HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMS A BIT...WITH UP TO
1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN MODELS BRING ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE REGION...BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERENT STORM TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FARTHEST NORTH...TAKING THE LOW THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA...
WHILE THE GEM IS WAY TO THE SOUTH...WITH A TRACK THROUGH IA/IL.
THE ECMWF TAKES A DIRECT HIT ON THE REGION...AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GRB CWA...INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI. DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACKS...CANNOT INCLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
CHC POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF PSBL
ACCUMS OVER NORTHERN WI IN THE HWO.

AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THE ECMWF HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS...AND IS FOCUSING MORE ON
A WEDS NGT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW TSTMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS LATE NEXT WEEK...
SO STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND FOR POPS AND TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





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