Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 262023
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
323 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE...PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY. MOST OF THIS DIED OFF OR MOVED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. SOME LIGHT RETURNS WERE SHOWING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT ASOS OBSERVATIONS WERE NOT EVEN DETECTING
CLOUDS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE AND THE 12Z GRB SOUNDING HAD
ENOUGH DRY AIR THAT IT DID NOT SEEM LIKELY THAT ANYTHING WAS
REACHING THE SURFACE. MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE
HAVE KEPT THE AREA FROM WARMING UP AS MUCH AS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
THE CLOUDS WERE BECOMING THINNER AND IT MAY STILL WARM UP A FEW
MORE DEGREES BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT BASED ON THE FACT THAT THERE
SHOULD BE FEW CLOUDS...WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A WARM FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT HAVE LEFT THE AREA DRY SINCE
MODELS WERE KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PCPN TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS MODEL HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH QPF DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...AND KEEPS GRB CWA DRY UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE KEPT A SMALL POP FOR OUR SW COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...AS H8 WAA INCREASES AND THE LEADING EDGE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVES.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH CAPPING ARRIVING ON
TUESDAY...AND STILL SHOW INCREASING WAA AND A S/W TROF MOVG
MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
HIGHEST POPS WEST AND NORTH ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HIGH CHANCE/
LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. THREAT OF SVR TSTMS IS STILL A BIT
MUDDLED...AND MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO CLOUD COVER...A NIGHTTIME
FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE STRONGER SHEAR LAGGING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE...SO THE DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD RIGHT
NOW.

HAVE REMOVED ANY PCPN FROM THE WEDS FCST...AS THE FRONT SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST AND A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. H9/H8
WINDS WILL BE 25-35 KTS...SO DAYTIME MXING AND CAA SHOULD RESULT
IN A WINDY DAY...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH MOST PLACES.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AGAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SETTING UP JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF IT OVER THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR
WARRANTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS WEAK SURFACE WAVES
SHIFT EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER
HUMIDITY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO COVER MUCH OF THE
AREA AT MIDDAY...BUT THEY SHOULD START TO THIN OUT AND/OR EXIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FOG DEVELOPED IN
SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AGAIN
TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR VSBYS
IN SOME LOCATIONS AT TIMES. POSSIBLY SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY
ONCE FOG BURNS OFF.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MG



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