Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 280919
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
419 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY RESULTING
IN A COUPLE VERY CHILLY DAYS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AMPLITUDE WILL PEAK EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...
THEN DECREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGHOUT.

TEMPS WL TREND DOWNWARD THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BOTTOMING OUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL FRI/SAT BEFORE REBOUND BACK CLOSE TO
NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS THE FCST AREA WL BE POSITIONED IN THE NWLY UPR
FLOW BTWN THE LNGWV RIDGE APPROACHING FM THE W AND THE UPR TROF
DEEPENING TO THE E...SO PCPN AMNTS WL BE MODEST AT BEST. THE NEXT
CHC FOR MORE SIG PCPN WL COME LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE
PASSES OFF TO THE E AS THE NEXT UPR TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH FM
THE W.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WAS EXITING THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF A DOWNTURN IN
TEMPS. FRONTAL WV RACING NEWD OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WL CONSOLIDATE
WITH CYCLONE BACK OVER SW ONTARIO...GENERATING GUSTY WLY WINDS
ACRS THE AREA. THE REALLY CHILLY AIR IS BACK TO THE NW OF THE
ONTARIO CYCLONE...SO THOUGH IT WL BE COOLER THAN YDA...TEMPS TDA
SHOULD STILL WARM TO NR OR JUST ABV NORMAL. WENT WITH BLEND OF THE
BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR MAX TEMPS. DRY SLOT WL
SHIFT ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING
ARND THE CYCLONE WL SPREAD CLDS BACK ESE ACRS THE AREA. SCT LGT
PCPN FM MN/THE NRN PLAINS WL ALSO LIKELY WORK BACK INTO N-C WI BY
AFTN.

BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE PRODUCTS WAS A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREV FCST FOR MIN TEMPS TNGT. THAT MAY NOT BE A
BAD IDEA GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLD COVER AND WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY
UP GIVEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING WITH THE CAA. TEMPS
WL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF PCPN ACRS THE N.

QUIETER WX WL RETURN WED AS SFC RIDGE APPROACHES FM THE W. COOLER
AIR WL BE IN PLACE...LEADING TO TEMPS NR OR A LITTLE BLO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. FIRST REAL TASTE OF WINTER
EXPECTED AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF
THE SEASON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN POSSIBLE LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN RETURN TO NORMAL BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COULD BRING SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES (ONLY FLURRIES OVERNIGHT). A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR FLURRY
IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE MODELS
BRING A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE BIG CHANGE WILL COME THURSDAY
NIGHT AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEPENING LAKE TO 850MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL BRING SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG OR
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
MORNING AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADD MORE PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE VERY FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
HARD FREEZE TO THE REGION AND THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE ECMWF FOR DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IF CLOUD COVER IS NOT
TOO THICK.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDTIONS WERE OCCURRING ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY ACRS THE NW
PART OF THE FCST AREA...AND SOME IFR CIGS AREA ALSO POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. CIGS WL PROBABLY HOLD UP BETTER IN THE SE PART OF THE AREA.
EXPECT MAINLY LOWER-END VFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE SOME MVFR CIGS
THERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI







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