Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 211938
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND PCPN CHCS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT AND
THEN MIN TEMPS LATE TNGT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM MNM WSW
TO EAU. WEST WINDS QUICKLY TURNED N-NW BEHIND THE FNT ALTHO LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLING WAS TAKING PLACE TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...
A PAIR OF HI PRES AREAS WERE SITUATED OVER SW MANITOBA AND THE
CNTRL PLAINS. LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC FINALLY PICKED UP ON SCT RAIN
SHWRS ALONG THE CDFNT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER MARINETTE AND
DOOR COUNTIES.

THE CDFNT WL CONT TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH THRU CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...THE WIND SHIFT AND SCT LIGHT RAIN SHWRS OR SPRINKLES. ONCE
THE PCPN ENDS OVER E-CNTRL WI LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS AS THE MANITOBA HI PRES
BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL AIR MASS ALOFT WL BRING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TO THE FCST AREA. BASED ON EXPECTED MIN TEMPS
IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S NORTH...WL NEED TO ISSUE A FREEZING
WARNING FOR VILAS...ONEIDA...LINCOLN...FOREST AND FLORENCE
COUNTIES AND A FROST ADVISORY FOR LANGLADE...NRN OCONTO AND NRN
MARINETTE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME PATCHY FROST FOR THE
COOLER LOCATIONS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI.

THE AREA OF HI PRES TO MOVE SE INTO THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRI AND WL BRING A PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY TO NE WI. MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NEAR LAKE MI (ONSHORE WINDS WL DEVELOP)...
TO AROUND 70 DEGS OVER CNTRL WI.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE NORTH. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UPPER JET
ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

CDFNT TO GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH THRU CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS FNT IS HAVING MOISTURE
ISSUES IN TRYING TO DEVELOP PCPN...BUT ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF
MAINLY SHWRS TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA...ESPECIALLY OVER E-CNTRL WI
WHERE CONVERGENCE IS BETTER. EVEN WITH THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHWRS...CIGS/VSBYS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AS MOST
OF THE CLOUDS ARE OF THE MID-VARIETY. ONCE THIS CDFNT CLEARS THE
AREA...HI PRES WL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES OVRNGT INTO FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TNGT AND A
SUNNY DAY ON FRI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KALLAS
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......AK



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