Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 011130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Friday
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Precipitation continues to wind down across most of the area early
this morning as a mid level low pressure system slowly tracks
through the northern Great Lakes. As deeper moisture departs the
area, mainly drizzle is expected for central and east-central
Wisconsin today as model soundings show shallow moisture in the
column. Therefore will keep POPs fairly low for southern areas
today. Farther north deeper moisture from Lake Superior will help
keep more snow in the forecast across north-central Wisconsin.
Despite more snow in the forecast, amounts will be fairly light
across the north as daytime heating warms the boundary layer and
surfaces where snow would accumulate. Therefore snowfall amounts
will be light if there are any at all.

Snow chances will slowly wane across north-central Wisconsin tonight
and Friday as the low continues tracking eastward, with the best
chances concentrated over Vilas County given the lake effect
component. Overall the region will remain in cyclonic flow, which
should keep abundant cloudiness across the western Great Lakes
with a fairly small diurnal range through the end of the work

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 338 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Expect above normal temperatures through the middle of next week
as upper level flow becomes more zonal and then southwest.
Temperatures should top out in the 30s during the day with
overnight lows generally in the 20s.

Dry weather is expected to prevail through Saturday night, with
the possible exception of a few snow showers across north central
Wisconsin on Friday night. An approaching upper trough and surface
boundary will bring precipitation chances to the forecast area
starting on Sunday and continuing into Sunday evening. It appears
that this will be mostly snow, but there may be a wintry mix
across central and eastern Wisconsin during the afternoon as
temperatures warm. Any snow accumulation should be minor. Weak
upper ridging and a surface high will help to keep the area dry
from late Sunday night into Tuesday morning. After that, an
approaching surface low and upper trough will bring a chance for
snow or a wintry mix for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Model
differences in their handling of the surface and upper levels
systems resulted in below average confidence in the exact amount
and type of precipitation across the forecast area.

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A Large but weak upper low system will continue to drift over the
Great Lakes region today. Mainly MVFR cigs expected but scattered
IFR cigs with MVFR vsbys due to light rain or snow showers and
patchy fog will persist this morning. Conditions to gradually
improve to vfr conditions across the eastern TAF sites later this
as the system shifts eastward.



SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.