Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 081124
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
524 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SLOW MOTION CLIPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE AREA TODAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD AND
SATURATING AIR MASS SPREADS EAST. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ALSO EXPANDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
TUESDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WITH ONE PIECE DROPPING INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY ENHANCED WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

EVEN THOUGH MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME DRYING WORKS INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN AREAS LATER TUESDAY...DEEP SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH STEEP
SURFACE LAPSE RATES WILL COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS. SO WILL CONTINUE HIGHER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.

OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH...AND CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY FOR VILAS WITH THE EMPHASIS THE NW PORTION.

MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING OR EARLY DAY HIGHS OTHERWISE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONSISTING OF THE WRN NOAM UPR RDG/ERN NOAM
UPR TROF TO PERSIST THRU MID-WEEK BEFORE THE UPR RDG WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EWD IN RESPONSE TO A NEW UPR TROF TO HIT THE WEST COAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND. THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WIL USHER IN AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. PCPN AMOUNTS WL BE BELOW NORMAL
AS GULF MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY
SIGINIFICANT STORMS ON THE HORIZON.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHWRS OVER NRN WI CONTS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
TUE NGT...ESPECIALLY FOR VILAS CNTY AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...TRAJS ARE IDEAL (N-NW)...DELTA-T
VALUES ARE IN THE MID 20S AND SFC TROF LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE ONE BIG NEGATIVE WL BE THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS THAT WOULD
LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE SNOWBELT REGION OF
VILAS CNTY WL SEE SNOW SHWRS AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. THE REST OF NE WI
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY WIDELY SCT SNOW SHWRS AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO CNTRL WI...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ERN WI. ADD
IN A GUSTY NW WIND AND WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH ADVY CRITERIA
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL WI.

THE LAKE EFFECT IS FCST TO PERSIST THRU WED...BUT BE IN A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING MODE AS AN AREA OF HI PRES BUILDS INTO WRN WI AND
ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF VILAS CNTY
COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUMULATION...AGAIN LIMITED
BY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. OTHERWISE...PARTS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
COULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ON WED AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND THE
SFC HI APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER N-CNTRL/PARTS OF CNTRL WI...WHILE ERN WI
ONLY REACHES THE 10 TO 15 DEG RANGE.

THE SFC HI IS PROGGED TO STRETCH FROM LK WINNIPEG SE THRU WRN WI
TO THE TN VALLEY WED NGT...BRINGING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TO NE WI. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE VILAS CNTY
WHERE LAKE CLOUDS/PERHAPS A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHWRS TO EXIST. THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING WL BE KEY AS TO HOW COLD WE CAN GET CONSIDERING
THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER. LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 5 ABOVE NEAR LK MI...TO NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVER
THE COLDER SPOTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL WI. THIS BROAD AREA OF HI PRES
TO EAST SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON THU AND BACK THE WINDS TO A W-NW
DIRECTION...THEREBY FINALLY ALLOWING N-CNTRL WI TO SEE THE SUN.
EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF THE SUN FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA...
ALTHO TEMPS TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT
MAX TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE CNTRL WI...GENERALLY
MIDDLE TEENS ERN WI.

THE BENIGN AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FCST TO HOLD SWAY THRU SAT
AS THE HI PRES CONTS TO DOMINATE NE WI. THERE WL BE A WEAK SYSTEM
(MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING) THAT SHOULD
STAY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON FRI...BUT COULD VEER THE WINDS NW
AGAIN AND LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS/SMALL CHC FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHWRS
OVER VILAS CNTY. THE REST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPS
TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL.

THE HI PRES FINALLY DOES SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT NGT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE S-SE DIRECTION WITH WARMER AIR TO TRY
AND PUSH BACK INTO WI. THERE MAY BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HI
CLOUDS LATER SAT NGT AS THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES. THE NEXT
REAL CHC OF SEEING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION WOULD BE SUNDAY AT THE
EARLIEST AS A SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE UPR MIDWEST. TIMING
OF THIS FEATURE VARIES A BIT AMONG THE MODELS...BUT PLENTY OF TIME
TO SORT OUT THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ005.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TDH


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