Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 240950
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

JET ENERGY MOVING FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PRODUCE SURFACE LOW FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE AN UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
PRECEDED BY A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF WAUSAU TO GREEN BAY.

UNLIKE MUCH OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR...GULF MOISTURE IS NOT
THAT FAR AWAY...AND SHOULD STREAM QUICKLY NORTH TODAY AND BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. DO NOT THINK THAT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COOLING
BY STRONG VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD ALLOW ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO
CHANGE QUICKLY TO SNOW. IF IT SHOULD ALL FALL AS SNOW THEN FOUR OR
FIVE INCHES WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES.

WE HAVE NOT HAD SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION SINCE MARCH 3RD
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND RECENT MILD WEATHER MAY HAVE
MADE PEOPLE FORGET THAT IT IS STILL WINTER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM REMAINS AN
ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS BRINGING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES STILL ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT IT SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH LATER IN THE NIGHT FOR JUST SNOW. COLD AIR BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FAR NORTH AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE SYSTEM AND MIDDLE LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
POPS...TIMING...AND PRECIPITATION TYPE...DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW
THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS REST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM LIFTS TOWARD WISCONSIN. THE LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL INCLUDE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ030-031-035>040-045-048>050.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......TDH





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