Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 171812
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
112 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ISSUES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER WESTERN LAKES TODAY. SURFACE
HIGH OVER ONTARIO...DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO STATE WITH LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. PASSING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
WI TO MINNEAPOLIS AREA. STRONGER WINDS...IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
INVERSION AROUND 925MB HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS NEGATED DENSE FOG THREAT. HAVE ALSO WARMED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME GIVEN CLOUD BLANKET. LOOK FOR A DRY DAY TODAY WITH
CLOUDS MIXING OUT THIS MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING UPPER LOW NOW OVER MT/CANADIAN
BORDER INTO THE WESTERN LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY EVENING.
INCREASING WAA AND MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY TO LEAD TO PCPN
CHANCES OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...SHIFTING EAST ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEST HEIGHT FALLS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. PWATS ALSO CLIMBING TO 1.50 AND 1.80 INCHES COMBINED
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES THE
POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. AS
FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...PROGS SUGGESTS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...WITH A POSSIBLE LFQ REGION PASSING OVER THIS SAME AREA
LATER TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WBZ
HEIGHTS INCREASE TO OVER 11000 FT ON TUESDAY SUGGESTING A
DIMINISHED THREAT OF HAIL.

PROGS DIVERT ON THE DEPARTURE TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH FOR MID
WEEK. GEM MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOWLY DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO PLAY A ROLE WITH PCPN ARRIVING LATER IN THE WEEK OR
WEEKEND. UPPER HEIGHTS SUGGEST TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE AFTER MID
WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MAY TRY TO LIFT
A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD FOR MORE CHANCES OF RAIN LATER NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL SCENARIOS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
AFTER MID WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WERE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN DURING THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS TO EASTERN WISCONSIN FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE STRATUS THAT SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WAS GRADUALLY ERODING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE FINALLY
CLEARING OUT OF THE EAST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO REACH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY MORNING AS FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MG





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