Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 192031
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY EASTWARD...AS LATEST
MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. LEFT
FREEZE WARNING AS IS...WITH NEW FORECAST TEMPS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH MUCH MORE
SUNSHINE AND SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ALOFT...HIGHS WILL RECOVER
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TODAY...THOUGH STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. WITH PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS...INTRODUCED SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EARLY THURSDAY AND ALL
DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
LIFTS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION WING LIFTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE SUN/MON IS THE LOW PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT THERMAL
PROFILE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW THAN THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPS AND MUCH MORE
INSTABILITY. GENERALLY STUCK TO A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR TEMPS
AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD.

CARRIED SOME CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO
BE TRENDING DRIER FOR THAT DAY. DID NOT PULL POPS YET GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST THAT FAR INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER. CIGS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT
FARTHER NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN.
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-48>50-073-074.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>013-018-019-021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....DDV
LONG TERM......DDV
AVIATION.......HENTZ



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