Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 122032
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
232 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Main forecast concern initially will be the strong winds into
this evening, otherwise focus to be on temperatures as dry weather
is anticipated over the next 24 hours.

The 20z MSAS surface analysis showed a broad area of low pressure
over southeast Ontario into Lake Huron with a cold front extended
southwest into the Ohio Valley. High pressure was situated over
the central Plains. A tight pressure gradient between these
systems produced strong winds over Wisconsin this afternoon with
most locations reporting gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range. The
strong subsidence behind the departed cold front had cleared out
most of the clouds from northeast WI with the exception of lake
effect clouds from Vilas county to northern Door county.

The gusty winds will gradually subside this evening as low
pressure and mid-level shortwave trough push toward the New
England states and an area of high pressure spreads across the
central Plains/Mid-MS Valley. Cannot rule out a few lingering
light snow showers or flurries over Vilas county early this
evening as modest CAA/marginal trajectories persist. As the region
becomes more influenced by the high pressure and winds become more
westerly tonight, this lake effect threat would end. As winds
diminish and skies remain mostly clear, temperatures will respond
by dropping into the 10 to 15 degree range north-central, 20 to 25
degree range east-central WI.

As winds turn west late tonight and eventually southwest on
Monday, WAA will overspread WI and bring high clouds to the
region. The high pressure is forecast to move from the Mid-MS
Valley to the Ohio Valley and keep our weather quiet through 00z
Tuesday. Anticipate clouds will lower somewhat late in the day in
advance of the next cold front/mid-level shortwave trough
combination moving southeast into the Upper MS Valley. Despite the
high cloud shield through the day, the southwest winds/WAA should
allow temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 30s throughout
the entire forecast area. A few spot over central WI could eclipse
the 40 degree mark if enough sunshine can get through the high
clouds.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Looks like mild and dry weather for the remainder of
the week. Little chance for much in the way of snow, except for
lake effect snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday in the far north.
Temperatures will be very comfortable for winter sports, as long
as the snow and ice cover hold out. Highs and lows will be 10 to
15 degrees above normal except for near normal temperatures
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Strong west-northwest winds will prevail through this afternoon
with sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts to around 40
knots. These winds are expected to gradually diminish later this
evening before backing to the west toward daybreak. VFR conditions
will prevail for the most part as high pressure passes to our
south. The RHI TAF site may briefly see a passing snow shower this
afternoon which could knock cigs/vsbys down to MVFR. High clouds
are forecast to overspread the region late tonight into Monday as
warmer air returns to the area on southwest winds. VFR conditions
to continue through Monday.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Winds are expected to gradually diminish this evening, with a
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible once the Gale
Warning expires this evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......Kallas
MARINE.........Kallas



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