000
FXUS63 KGRB 111744
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS HAVE ALLOWED
FOR AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS AND FOG JUST OFFSHORE ON LAKE
MICHIGAN. IT COULD CREEP ASHORE FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS MORNING
BEFORE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND SHOVES IT OFFSHORE. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO MOS. WEAK COUPLED JET WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT MID LEVELS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND NAM WOULD HAVE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
29 LATE TONIGHT BUT THAT LOOKS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF IS DRIER AND TRENDED THAT WAY. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN LOWS IN THE FAR NORTH
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS CHALLENGING. WE HAVE THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE NEBRASKA IOWA BORDER WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE NAM
IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE AND 850MB LOW AND WOULD BRING
SOME RAIN TO JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER
SOUTH AND MOST OF THE AREA WOULD BE DRY. THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FAIRLY DISTINCT NORTHERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION BUT NOT SURE WHERE. PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN WILL WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE
NAM OR ECMWF SO WILL KEEP THE NORTH THIRD OF THE AREA DRY. IF THAT
IS CORRECT THE NORTH WILL HAVE SOME SUNSHINE AND BE A BIT WARMER
THAN THE CLOUDY SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST THROUGH ILLINOIS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS CLEARS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING WISCONSIN SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
NEXT TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH WISCONSIN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION GOING
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

LOW END VFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME CU FIELD TO GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE.
EXPECT THIS CU TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING MAINLY
MID/HI CLOUDS FOR THE OVRNGT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNGT WHICH WOULD LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
CNTRL WI IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE NRN FLANK OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNING WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX POSSIBLE
WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANY TSTM ACTIVITY COULD BRING LWR CIGS/VSBYS...
BUT FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......AK