Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 162247
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
547 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT.

SHOWERS INCREASED AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY AS
MUCAPE VALUES INCREASED TO MORE THAN 1000J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WAS SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHWARD. STRATUS CLEARED OUT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO DURING THE
DAY SO AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION. THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
CLEARING...AND THERE WAS SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THERE TOO.
THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG FORMATION...WITH AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AT 20Z. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EAST WINDS WILL KEEP IT RATHER
COOL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE
FROM LAKE WINNIPEG INTO MINNESOTA MONDAY AND THEN FOR THE TROUGH
TO CLOSE OFF AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN TUESDAY. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE
SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
QUESTION IS WHEHER THERE MIGHT BE ANY SEVERE STORMS. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS THE SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY METEOROLOGY DEPARTMENTS
CASE STUDIES COMPARISON PAGE HAS SUGGESTED THAT TUESDAYS SURFACE
AND UPPER AIR PATTERN CORRELATES TO PAST SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAKS
BUT HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT TODAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
ENOUGH WIND SHEAR WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING RIGHT OVER WISCONSIN
AND INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THOUGH.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRYING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK
UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES BUT WE WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSE TO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AIR MASS STILL FAIRLY MOIST
IN THE LOW LEVELS...THUS EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN THE KRHI TAF DOWN TO
1/4 MILE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. DID LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE OTHER
TAF SITES FOR LATER TONIGHT. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY 15Z. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......ECKBERG





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