000
FXUS63 KGRB 180313 AAC
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1013 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

QLCS is weakening, but radar is still detecting 40-50 kt winds in
the lowest elevation slice, which is only 2-4K ft off the ground
in east-central Wisconsin. This is also the one portion of the
forecast area that has not been affected by prior rounds to
convection. So although the overall severe threat has started to
wane, isolated severe gusts could work down to the surface (as
indicated bythe 53 kt gust at ATW within the past few minutes.)

Will start dropping the watch for areas behind the line
momentarily. Although tornado threat is now low, plan to keep the
portion of the watch along/ahead of the line going as long as the
severe wind threat exists.


UPDATE
Issued at 851 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Severe risk is about to spread into east-central Wisconsin as
large, mature MCS races ENE into the area. The system produced
widespread wind damage over SW WI within the past few hours.
Extended WW233 to the lake, and to 06Z to cover the situation.
Primary risk will be of damaging winds, though there is still the
possibility of QLCS tornadoes.

UPDATE
Issued at 807 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Perhaps the severe threat for east-central Wisconsin is becoming
a little clearer. Although small cells were now developing south
of the main line moving through central Wisconsin, it appears the
main threat will be with the arrival of the QLCS racing NE out of
SW WI.

In addition, strong gradient winds due to mixing have been edging
closer to the southern part of the forecast area (G44 at FLD).
Main threat will be wind.

UPDATE
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Severe threat continues to gradually evolve across the area.
Although it will be moving out of the strongest instability, the
line over central Wisconsin is likely to maintain its intensity as
it surges into north-central Wisconsin during the evening.

The specifics of the evolution of the severe threat in eastern
Wisconsin is a little more unclear. The line in central Wisconsin
could build southeast and merge with the small cluster of storms
now entering southeast Wisconsin. It is also possible it may take
until the QLCS racing northeast from Iowa arrives in the area later
this evening. But given the intense QG forcing (at least for May)
continuing to bear down on the area from the southwest (in
advance of intense negatively-tilted shortwave ejecting across
Iowa), it is likely convection will affect the area at some point.
Assuming storms develop over eastern Wisconsin, there appears to
be sufficient shear and instability for them to pose a severe
threat.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A low pressure system, clearly seen spinning across the Missouri
Valley, will continue moving northeast towards northern Wisconsin
this afternoon and is forecast to be over the forecast area late
tonight and early Thursday morning. As this system tracks towards
the area instability will increase precipitously this afternoon
and this evening with forecast MUCAPEs of 2000 to 2500 J/kg. An
18Z KGRB RAOB sounding already shows 1100 J/kg of SBCAPE, which is
expected to rise as surface temperatures rise to around 80 this
afternoon. In addition to the instability 0-6 km bulk shear values
are expected to increase to around 50 knots. This setup points to
an increased severe weather potential for northeast Wisconsin, as
noted by the Slight Risk from the SPC convective outlook. The main
severe weather threat appears to be winds, as noted by the strong
50+ knots of wind starting as low as 8800 ft in the 18Z KGRB RAOB,
and 70 knots noted just above 20k ft agl. In addition to damaging
winds, large hail is possible with a fat CAPE profile in the hail
growth zone as well as tornadoes given the low level shear noted
in the low levels of the RAOB sounding. Models are indicating a
very long night in store for the forecast area as several rounds
of strong to severe storms track through the forecast area through
the overnight hours. Preliminary thoughts are there could be 3
rounds, however there could be more or less based on how the low
progresses towards the area tonight and how long the instability
can remain in place after sunset.

In addition to severe weather, flooding will be a concern across
north-central Wisconsin where several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms have already passed through yesterday night. However
the fast winds noted in the sounding will lead to fast moving
storms during this period, keeping the chances for training over
any given area rather low. Therefore will hold off on any flood
watches for this area at this time.

The storms will exit the area late tonight and Thursday morning as
the low moves through the area and a cold front brings a cooler,
more stable airmass to the region. Temperatures Thursday afternoon
are expected to fall behind the cold front despite being the
middle of May, a rare event for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Very cool conditions expected at the beginning of the period, then
temperatures will modify early next week but will remain below
normal for the latter half of May. Winds will gradually diminish
later Thursday with a frost or freeze expected north and west of
the Fox Valley. Conditions across the Fox Valley and lakeshore a
little more tricky as winds stay up even late at night. This will
more than likely limit the frost potential and keep temperatures
from 35 to 39 degrees. Highs on Friday will be very cool with
readings only reaching the middle to upper 50s. For Friday night,
clouds will be on the increase with chances of rain after
midnight.

Rain is expected on Saturday into Saturday night as the next
system moves across the region. The next chance of rain will be
next Tuesday and Wednesday. Below normal temperatures are expected
for much of the period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Thunderstorms will be the main aviation forecast issue. Once those
pass through later tonight, expect low ceilings and some lower
visibilities to push into north-central Wisconsin later tonight.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Skowronski