Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 160337
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1037 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. LATER TONIGHT...SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE REGION. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE SOME CLEARING TOOK PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DOUBT IF THE FOG WOULD BECOME DENSE AS SOME OF THE MODELS SHIFT
THE LOW CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO VILAS...ONEIDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WAS WELL DEFINED OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...SO SKIES COULD GO FROM CLOUDY TO CLEAR WITHIN AN HOUR.
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN WOULD NOT CLEAR UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH- CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE
RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.  A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ONE ON
FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
COMPARABLE WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY...BUT THE ECMWF
APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SECOND FEATURE.  THEN THE
MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE WILL DO.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG BUT MOISTURE-STARVED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN TO START THE EVENING...THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD OF CLEARING LATE IN THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT.  THEN
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
WILL INCREASE CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.  WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRAG IN COOLER
AIR FROM CANADA.  MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER N-C WISCONSIN.  SHOULD TURN BREEZY WITH A CHANCE
OF GALES ADJACENT TO DOOR COUNTY.  THE SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TAKE PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPS.

REST OF THE FORECAST...AFTER A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO PART OF
MONDAY...GIVING THE REGION A SOLID BET OF LIGHT RAIN.  THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

DON/T EXPECT A RAPID CHG IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE LOW CLDS AS
LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW CONTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LARGE CYCLONE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. SOME PATCHES OF ST HAVE DEVELOPED
AND WL AFFECT THE NW AT TIMES. WINDS MAY ALSO STIR A LITTLE MORE
THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. WL BACK DOWN SOME ON THE FOG FOR THE 06Z
TAF PKG.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI








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