000
FXUS63 KGRB 111738
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1138 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

COLDER AIR WAS FINALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA. CURRENT
HEADLINES IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. THERE WILL BE A PORTION
OF THE DAY WHERE CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...
BUT ONLY FOR A FEW HOURS. THUS THE LONG DURATION WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FROM THE FOX VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. LATEST
TEMPERATURE AND WIND ANALYSIS WOULD SUGGEST THE LAKE SHORE WILL
REACH CRITERIA AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR DOOR... KEWAUNEE...AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES FROM
6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RISE SOME...BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN UP TO KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MODELS SHOWING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850/700 LAYER LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
GO EVEN HIGHER ONCE IT IS DETERMINED WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
WOULD OCCUR. ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END THURSDAY MORNING AS FEATURE
SHIFTS EAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 417 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE
CANADIAN PROVINCE OF ALBERTA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WILL ALSO NEED TO
WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL/LAKE ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN OFF THE BAY AND LAKE. MAIN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY... BRINGING
AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

ISENT LIFT WL SWEEP OVER THE AREA TNGT AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST
AIR SHIFTS OFF TO THE E. EXPECT A BAND OF LGT SNOW TO DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE LGT...BUT SHOULD BE A SEVERAL HR PERIOD WITH
SIG REDUCTION IN VSBY.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR WIZ022-040-050.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI