Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 270006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SMALL THREAT THIS EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM THE TWIN
CITIES ON EAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN SWEEPS EAST. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (MVFR CIGS)
INTO CENTRAL MN AFTER 06Z ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON BRINGING
THE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES...BUT DID INCLUDED THEM
FOR KRNH. SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY UNDER
THE COLD UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR. NW WINDS THIS EVENING (15G25KTS) BEHIND THE FRONT
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA INCREASING ON SUNDAY TO 15G25KTS.

KMSP...SMALL THREAT THIS EVENING FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE
TWIN CITIES. MAIN PROBLEM ON DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFLUENT LOW LEVEL
FLOW. KEPT IT VFR ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE IN THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY NW WINDS
15-18G25KTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCT SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH









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