Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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293
FXUS63 KMPX 112338
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
538 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The short term concern is cloud trend`s into the evening and
temperatures into Tuesday.

Still see abundant cloud cover over the cwa. Some drier air
working into the northwest cwa and this will work south and east
during the evening. We should clear over the western half through
this evening and perhaps a bit slower to the far east under low
level caa and cyclonic flow. Winds should decrease overnight as
well and will leave the advisory expire at 6 PM.

High pressure over the cwa into TUesday, but already see some
mid/high level clouds work into the far west overnight and into
most of the MN cwa Tuesday. Some threat of light snow/flurries to
the north as isentropic lift works east into the afternoon.
Mention a slight chance into far northern cwa for this possibility
into the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be colder, at
least by 10 degrees over the eastern area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Models bring in the next short wave later Tuesday night and
Wednesday. At the moment, models suggest the waa area of
precipitation to the east into Wednesday. This could lead to
1 to 2 inches of light snow accumulation to the east once again.
Depending on cloud ice and saturation, we could see some mixed
precipitation - light freezing drizzle/rain over the far western
fringe of the precipitation area. We may have to expand overall
PoP coverage on Wednesday as well, with the 12z ECMWF developing
lift a bit farther to the southwest, similar to this mornings
wave. We will monitor future model runs.

Following this there remains some indication of more westerly flow
aloft which would help bring in a little warmer Pacific air to the
region. Models do diverge on strength of eastern conus trough and
Pacific wave that moves through the region over the weekend. The
EC is much farther south and allows colder air to drop into the
region. Due to large spread we will stay with the blended guidance
for now, which continue the above normal temperature trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR clouds will continue to shift south of the area, with mostly
clear skies across the area developing by 03z. Will have some mid
level clouds move in overnight, but except VFR conditions
overnight. Another batch of low clouds with MVFR ceilings looks to
move into the northwest (KAXN) on Tuesday morning, potentially
affecting the rest of the sites Tuesday afternoon. There could be
some light snow with it as well, primarily for northern sites
(KAXN-KSTC).

KMSP...
MVFR deck will scatter out near the start of the period, with
mostly clear skies overnight. A broken mid-level deck works in on
Tuesday morning, and then the next potential for MVFR clouds and
flurries arrives Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is low at this
point though.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue night...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with chc -SN. Wind SE 5 kts mrng, NW aftn 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...Chc MVFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ047-048-054>056-
     064-073-074-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS



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