000
FXUS63 KMPX 150919
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL NOTED AT 0.5 REFLECTIVITY
AT THIS HOUR OVER FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI. LARGE
MCS WHICH FORMED DURING THE EVENING HOURS FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN
INTO IOWA AND NORTHERN MO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH EASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR
FARIBAULT AND FREEBORN COUNTIES DUE TO LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE
QPF ANTICIPATED TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
IN ADDITION SATURATED SOIL PRESENT AFTER WEDNESDAY`S HEAVY RAIN
HAS HAD OVER 48 HOURS OF DRYING/LIMITED NEW RAINFALL EXPOSURE.
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TO MUCH OF CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE NOTED ABOVE. HRRR PAINTING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI BY
19Z. ALTHOUGH VERY HEALTHY DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE HRRR IS OVER DOING INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ELIMINATE MOST RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD DECK BY 02Z OVER FA. A NICE COOL CRISP NIGHT ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND READING DIPPING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A WARM AND PRIMARILY DRY DAY...AS WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES IN ADVANCE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO. MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED DECENT
CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS
MN/WI LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY 00Z
MONDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH RANGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL...ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER.

AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS THE THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION NOSE INTO THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED 30-40 POPS AT THIS POINT...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES PASS ACROSS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME FRAME WHEN THE
JET STRUCTURE SHOULD BE SUPPLYING DECENT DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE.
HAVE INCLUDED 50-60 POPS FROM 00Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...GIVEN
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 15.00Z ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

88D RADAR INDICATING FAIRLY RAPID EASTWARD MARCH OF CONVECTION OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WI...AND SMALL PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN.
EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE BY 09Z. IR SATELLITE
DEPICTING LARGE CLOUD SHIELD FROM SW MN INTO NW WI AND SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS LINE. AREA INDICATIVE OF MCS WHICH WILL SLOWLY TREK
EAST...BUT EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTH PRIOR TO 12Z. SHIELD COMPRISED
OF MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH OCNL HIGH LEVEL MVFR CIGS. WITH THAT
SAID ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THROUGH END OF PERIOD ALL SITES. ENOUGH FORCING INDICATED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN FOR
WIDELY SCT -SHRA OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. OF COURSE...LIGHT TO MDT
SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING TO NW WINDS AROUND
10-12KTS BEHIND BOUNDARY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL MN AIRPORTS BY
15/21Z...AND ALL WESTERN WI TAF LOCALES BY 16/00Z.

KMSP...

SHOWERS VCNTY PRIOR TO 08Z. VFR CIGS DROPPING SLIGHTLY
AS MCS SHIELD SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY DROP.
ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR BY 15Z...POSSIBILITY
EXISTS OF REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS TYPE OF CLOUD DECK NEAR 20Z
...ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. VCSH ALSO A POSSIBILITY NEAR
THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH END OF PERIOD
...WITH SE WINDS 5 TO 10KTS...BECOMING NW 10-12KTS BY 16Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WSW WINDS 5-10KTS.
MON...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS AND TSRA. NW WINDS 10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS LGT AND VRB.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...AJZ