Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 142024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
324 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Rather than mid-September, this afternoon felt more like mid-July as
temperatures climbed to the upper 80s and lower 90s with dew
points in the 60s. This is in thanks to southerly flow and the
thermal ridge in place due to the developing low pressure system
across the high plains with a nearly-stationary frontal boundary
extending northeast from western Nebraska, through eastern South
Dakota and through northeastern MN.

Our area remains in the warm sector to the south of the front with
all shower and thunderstorm activity occurring behind the front.
Expect this front to make little progress east through tonight and
tomorrow, keeping much of our area dry and well above normal in
terms of temperatures.  There is an EML in place for tonight, so it
could be possible for a stray convective shower or thunderstorm to
develop, but still feel that chance is very isolated/unlikely.

Today and tomorrow will likely be about 15 degrees above normal. The
front will approach western MN later tomorrow, so do have chance
POPs there.  With the the front remaining across the west though,
expect another very warm day with breezy southerly winds developing
in the afternoon, likely with 10-20 MPH and gusts 20-25 MPH.  With
the exception of the Alexandria toward Mille Lacs areas, we should
have no trouble warming into the upper 80s and low 90s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

The long term forecast period will be an active one with
amplification of a broad western CONUS trough and prevalent
southwest flow locally.

Friday night the front looks to be stretching from eastern SD
across north central MN to Lake Superior. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to become more numerous from western into central
MN as shortwave energy lifts across the boundary.

Saturday morning the front will be starting to make some progress
across west central MN in the form of a cold front. High
temperatures will be a bit tricky, but do expect areas generally
along/east of I-35 to see low/mid 80s with the potential for some
peeks of sun and decent southerly flow/mixing ahead of the
approaching boundary. Showers and thunderstorms should flare again
Saturday afternoon/eve along and ahead of the cold front. There
looks to be a potential...albeit marginal...for a few severe
storms on Saturday afternoon with 30 knots of effective shear and
decent instability. The best forcing and deep layer shear are
displaced behind the cold front however, so the threat for widespread
severe activity looks to be low.

In the wake of the front we look to be dry on Sunday with cooler
than normal highs in the 60s.

Monday we already warm back above normal values as mid level
ridging builds back in ahead of the next trough to the west. As
said trough amplifies over the western CONUS, we transition to
southwest mid-level flow by Tuesday, with temperatures responding
by moderating into the mid 70s to lower 80s range.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return by late Tuesday and
Wednesday as the next frontal system pushes across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

It should be a quiet period ahead, but there is a very small
chance a few showers could develop overnight. That is doubtful
though, so expect VFR conditions throughout the period except for
AXN toward Mille Lacs as stratus in the vicinity of the frontal
boundary across northern MN could seep into those areas tomorrow

KMSP...Any precip for tomorrow should be beyond the TAF period,
closer to the overnight period Friday night.

Sat...VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR cigs possible. Winds WNW 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Slight chc TSRA/MVFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts.




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