000
FXUS63 KMPX 280119
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN CITIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NER LAKE
MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
THE STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL
DETERMINE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE
FASTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

EXTENSIVE STRATUS HOLDING STRONG ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVE
AND GIVEN UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING MVFR-IFR CIGS AND CONTINUED MILD
SE FLOW...HAVE LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE LOW CEILINGS WILL
DISPERSE ANYTIME SOON. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CIGS AT
THE START FOLLOWED BY CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT
INTO LATE WED MRNG. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURG THE DAY TMRW... BUT
STILL WITHIN MVFR RANGE. HAVE HELD OFF PRECIP MENTION THRU 00Z AS
MODELS DEPICT LITTLE TO NO CHC AT THAT POINT...BUT THIS THINKING
MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. WINDS REMAIN
CONSISTENTLY SE THRU LATE DAY TMRW THEN BECOME VARIABLE AS THE
CDFNT RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP TMRW EVE PUSHES THRU.
WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRNT LOOK TO GO VRBL CLOSE TO 5 KT.

KMSP...INITIALIZED WITH OVC017 CEILINGS AND WILL LOOK FOR CIGS TO
DROP TO IFR LEVELS BY 06Z...REMAINING THERE THRU DAYBREAK. EVEN AS
CIGS RISE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE BY LATE MRNG...CIGS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD UNTIL LATE AFTN SO
THIS MAY AFFECT THE EVE PUSH. CIGS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE THRU THE
MVFR RANGE DURG THE EVE HRS BUT CHCS DO INCREASE TO SEE MIXED
WINTRY PRECIP TMRW EVE...SO MUCH SO THAT A PROB30 FOR THIS
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC