738
FXUS63 KMPX 110003
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday.
  Predictability for any of these rounds is low, but heavy rain
  and gusty winds are possible with said clusters.

- Warm and mostly dry Saturday-Monday, with the next system to
  bring organized showers and storms arriving Tuesday-
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This morning`s mesoscale convective vortex has spun its way into
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, bringing
associated showers with it. Current satellite verifies this with
a large, picturesque, plume of high level cirrus on the
outskirts of the spinning low. Satellite also shows clearing in
western Minnesota behind the departing surface low, where
temperatures have rebounded into the low 80s. Stronger storms
are possible this afternoon, but should be mostly isolated to
south of the MN border in Iowa where a prominent CU field
developed through strong diurnal heating. Given the scattering
clouds (increase in heating), relatively high dewpoints
(60/70s), and increasing mid-level lapse rates (6-8 deg C/km),
any weak disturbance could trigger a thunderstorm. In this
unstable and minorly capped environment, outflows from any storm
that does develop could create another storm. They would be
disorganized in nature given the lack of winds. Overall, the
rain threat is greater than any storm threat across southern
Minnesota in association with the departing low.

Friday morning could look similar to today, with scattered
showers and storms possible in the early hours. A cold front
will sweep through later in the day, with more clusters of
storms possible. Again, these will be hard to pinpoint to any
specific location given the isolated nature of potential
development. Heavy rainfall is something we will be keeping our
eyes on over the next few days as PWATs remain elevated.

Saturday brings high pressure and mild temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s, with any precip moving out of western Wisconsin by
late morning. Sunday will be similar in that it will be mostly
uneventful, but temperatures will be back in the 80s with
afternoon dewpoints in the low 60s. Monday will again be
uneventful weather wise, but dewpoints will bring back the
mugginess with high temps in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the
lows 70s. The next larger scale system arrives Tuesday into
Wednesday with showers and storms likely in the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Most sites have stayed dry this evening as scattered showers and
storms are primarily across central/southern WI and parts of
IA. The cluster of storms near the Nebraska/SD/IA border region
is expected to lift northeast overnight, bringing a chance for
-SHRA in parts of southern MN tomorrow morning.

Due to recent rainfall and light winds, patchy fog could develop
as temperatures cool down overnight. The areas most likely to
see aviation impacts are near STC and RNH, spreading northwards.
Additionally, EAU could see cigs drop to around 1500 feet due to
the increased low level moisture.

The forecast gets tricky by tomorrow afternoon ahead of the
frontal passage later in the day. Some hires models hint at
isolated to scattered convection during the afternoon, but it
would be difficult to pinpoint to what extent at this point
given it will likely be a factor of any outflow from morning
storms. By evening, the front will swing from west to east,
providing a source of lift for more widespread storms to form.
The intensity and coverage of storms will be largely influenced
by what happens through tomorrow afternoon. More sunshine would
mean stronger storms, while more cloud cover and early day
storms would likely hinder the storm potential in the evening.

KMSP...The chance for -SHRA tomorrow morning has recently
trended down, but is still worthwhile to leave in the TAF at
this point. Timing for the frontal passage looks to be around
sunset, with the chance for storms greater during this period
rather than the afternoon. That said, an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...BED