Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 161032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

No major concerns today as temperatures rise another 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than on Sunday under sunny skies. The pressure gradient will
tighten today as an area of low pressure moves eastward, well north
of the Canadian border. Western/southwestern Minnesota will see a
few wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Not much change overnight with winds
decreasing, but temperatures still mild for mid October.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A very quiet pattern will persist across the country this week
with an expansive mid level ridge stretching from coast to coast,
keeping the storm track well to the north. Surface high pressure
near the eastern seaboard will sustain a steady southerly flow
from the Plains through the western Great Lakes. The only
exception through the period will come Wednesday due to a brief
weakness in the ridge allowing a front to dip through. By
Thursday the front will wash out and the southerly flow will

The warmest day is expected to be Friday when highs could approach
80 degrees. Thermal ridging with 925 mb temps exceeding +17C will
move in ahead of a front progged to reach the area Saturday/
Saturday night.

ThetaE will increase in advance of the cold front early this
weekend as dew points climb into the mid/upper 50s. Mid level
lapse rates will be sufficient enough for a chance of thunder.
Models have increased QPF quite a bit over the last few days`
worth of runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Gusty southwest winds will develop in western/southwestern
Minnesota by the mid/late morning and continue through the
afternoon. Gusts up to 22-25 kts are possible at KAXN/KRWF.
Otherwise, VFR.


No additional concerns.


Wed...VFR. Winds SW bcmg W 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds S 10-15 kts.




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