Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251224 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DES MOINES WILL ROTATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
A FEW FLURRIES ARE ABOUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW IS NOW SINKING SOUTH
INTO SRN MN AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE. REDUCED POPS THIS MORNING
AREA WIDE. DRIER AIR SHOULD ROTATE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI.
HOWEVER... CONTINUED CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH...IF AT
ALL TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS EVENING.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...TEMPS COULD DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID OR
UPPER TEENS BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. ONCE IT DOES SO...
AGGRESSIVE WAA WILL BEGIN BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO NEAR
40 BY SUNRISE MONDAY ACROSS WRN MN. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT OVER WRN WI AND
FAR ERN MN. AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

LONG TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MIDWEEK AT LEAST...THEN HEADED COOLER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SHOULD EXIT EAST INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN EARLY MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ITS
WAKE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MEAGER WITH MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING HEADED EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOME WARMER AIR INTRUDES INTO WESTERN MN.
NO SNOW COVER INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
MN...ON THE NOHRSC MODELED SNOW ANALYSIS. ANY LIGHT COATING
RECEIVED OVERNIGHT WILL MELT OFF RAPIDLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST. CLOUDS
AND AND REMAINING THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TEMPER READINGS A BIT
IN THE FAR EAST. THIS ALL PUSHES EAST OF THE WESTERN WISCONSIN
REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST.

THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE BACKING DOWN SOME FOR BIG WARMING
ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER AND DECREASE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

FINALLY...THE COOLING TREND IS STILL INDICATED OVER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DETAILS OF THE EAST COAST NOREASTER AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH HAVE YET TO BE DETERMINED AND THIS WILL INFLUENCE TIMING OF
MAIN ARCTIC FRONT HERE. THE ECMWF HAS CONTINUED A MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS
SLOWER...MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE SNOW INDICATED BEFORE THEN...WITH NEARLY BARE GROUND
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TEMPERATURES MAY
NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER
OVER THE REGION. THE CFSV2 HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS COLD SHOT FOR
THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE EARLY PART OF FEBRUARY WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING RANGING
FROM IFR TO VFR...SOMETIMES ACROSS ONE COUNTY. THIS LEADS TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LEVELS...BUT THINK A
GENERAL TREND TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS WAY
TOO PESSIMISTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT HAS BEEN THIS WINTER. VFR
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING AND A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE WI TAF LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE.
WED...VFR. CHC MVFR. WIND SE 5-10 KT.
THU...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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