Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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075
FXUS63 KMPX 222035
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

After a week of rainy weather, the air mass has dried out quite a
bit today with mostly sunny skies over much of southern MN into West
Central Wisconsin. However, two areas of incoming clouds and precip
will affect the area. Mid clouds and some showers had already moved
into southwest MN with associated short wave coming from the
northwest. There might be some thunder in south central MN and have
kept those in the grids. That area will slide across our southern
counties tonight. The other area of clouds and light showers will
drop southward later tonight and Tuesday as upper trough drops
south. This will affect central into southwest MN, and eventually
east central MN into Wisconsin later Tuesday morning and
afternoon. The GFS is rather bullish with more rain and clouds
then most models, but have kept the grids a little quieter than
that.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A much drier pattern will take hold from the middle of the week
onward, with only two main chances of precipitation - one with a
front Thursday night into Friday and the other Sunday into Monday.

Cyclonic flow will finally be on the way out Tuesday evening.
Clearing skies will follow for midweek although temperatures
remain cool in the wake of the impressively deep trough heading
toward the East Coast. Temperatures rebound back toward normal
Thursday in advance of the front and Friday/Saturday in the wake
of the front where temperatures aloft actually warm a bit. Poor
lapse rates should limit the thunder threat Thursday night/Friday
and the GFS appears to be a bit too aggressive with precip
coverage. Continued with 30-40 PoPs.

Confidence diminishes Memorial Day weekend with GFS maintaining a
closed low over the central U.S. while the GEM/ECMWF are much
farther northeast with the system over the Great Lakes and a
ridge building eastward into the High Plains. Either way,
temperatures will trend back below normal and odds of a weekend
washout appear low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR for now, but there are two areas of incoming clouds and
precip. One is moving from South Dakota into southern MN this
afternoon with associated short wave. There should be thunder
after 21z moving into south central MN and persisting into the
evening. Second area will be later tonight and Tuesday morning as
upper trough drops south. This may well bring MVFR ceilings
southward into central and western MN later tonight, and
eventually east central MN and western WI Tuesday morning.

KMSP...VFR expected this afternoon and tonight, with lower VFR
around 3500 feet MSL moving in Tuesday morning. Periods of light
rain are also expected, but nothing torrential. There is some
chance the 3500 foot ceilings will be earlier and down to MVFR,
but right now, think it will more likely be VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue night...MVFR. Chc IFR -ra. Wind N 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK



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