Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 302000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

The cold front that brought thunderstorms to the region overnight,
has moved into central Iowa this afternoon. Dew points have
dropped into the 40s and 50s across central Minnesota, with low
to mid 60s along the Iowa border. High pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through Wednesday with a light north-northeast
wind, which will continue to drier air mass settling across the
area. Wednesday high temperatures will be similar to today with
readings in the 70s, to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Ridge of high pressure will be firmly in place by the start of the
long term period.  The center of the expansive high will sink south
through Canada into the Great Lakes region through Friday.  This
period of tomorrow night through Friday will be partly cloudy with
daytime dewpoints in the 50s each day and high temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s across the forecast area.

Much more active weather pushed in for the latter part of the
weekend.  A deep longwave trough will advance eastward through the
intermountain west and strong southwesterly low level flow will bring
an increase in temperatures and moisture along with shortwave
ripples aloft.  A strong surface low in association with the upper
trough will advance from eastern Montana toward Hudson Bay, with a
trailing cold front to the south being a primary focus of
thunderstorms development Saturday night and again Sunday night.
Then another surface low will develop, much farther south ahead of a
deeper and sharper trough that will split off from the main upper
trough discussed above, and lift northeast toward our region.  This
could bring a strong warm front into our area Monday night for
another possible round of heavy rainfall.  And if the surface low
continues as forecast by the GFS, it would cut through Minnesota
Tuesday afternoon which would introduce a better severe threat if
that track pans out.  With it being a week away, many of the details
are difficult to have confidence in but check back for updates as it
draws nearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Residual boundary layer moisture behind a front that moved south
of the Iowa border this afternoon, will likely persist in areas
along the Buffalo Ridge, and along the Minnesota, Iowa border
through the mid afternoon hours before MVFR cigs lift and mix out.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the forecast
period with a north-northeast wind under 10 kts.

KMSP...

No aviation concerns with VFR conditions and a north-northeast
wind.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Thunderstorms possible late. Wind S 10-15 kts G20 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT



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