Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 201052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Movement and redevelopment of lower clouds and temperature trends
are the main concerns in the near term.

Current water vapor satellite showing a couple of short waves over
the dakotas/southern Canada which will affect the region next 24
hours. The first located to the southwest...over eastern South
Dakota/northwest Iowa.  This is spreading some clouds and even a
band of showers ahead of it over South Dakota.  Expect any showers
to dry up as they move east into the drier air over Minnesota.
Clouds may thin some as well.  Currently...yesterdays lower clouds
remains trapped under subsidence inversion over the area.  Appears
to be eroding some and is moving south out of the area.  Should be
out of the region for the most part around 12z. Then expect the
moisture over he eastern Dakotas to move into western areas this
morning with some redevelopment of higher based stratocu farther to
the east into the late morning/afternoon. This will affect overall
temperatures with 40s north and some lower 50s to the south.

The moisture will ride east into the evening...followed by the next
short wave/now over southern Saskatchewan.  THis will begin to lift
some waa over the eastern Dakotas and into western Minnesota during
the night. Models move at least some mid level moisture east and
south during the night. If there is any remaining lower cloud around
late afternoon...will likely remain east of the developing warm
front. This should keep lows from dropping off to much...especially
to the west and central with some more clouds around.  Will continue
the lower 30s east...and mid 30s to the west for now.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Seasonably warm and dry weather will prevail into the start of
next week as high pressure ridging dominates the north central
CONUS between troughs on both coasts. The period will start off
with near to slightly below normal temperatures on Friday, and
then run around 5-10 degrees above normal from Saturday through
the middle of the upcoming week.

By late in the weekend, energy from the western trough starts to
push into the Central Plains. Monday night looks to be the first
real opportunity for measurable precipitation, as the area of warm
air/moisture advection noses into southern/central MN/WI ahead of
the surface trough over the western Dakotas. Higher chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday as
the trough skirts across the southern MN border toward Lake MI.
While timing is still a tad different between the GFS and ECMWF,
in general agreement has improved. Spatial differences still exist
as well, with the ECMWF featuring the 1-3+ inch bullseye over
central Iowa, and the GFS farther north with the heavier axis
extending from the MN/IA border into west central WI. For now have
included the highest pops south of I-94, and will refine
precipitation amounts with future runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

MVFR cigs exiting the southeast corner of the region. Expect some
redevelopment through the morning...but expect VFR cigs/35-4500ft
when they develop. The best areas would be again across the
northern and eastern areas. This is modeled well on the HRRR
ceiling forecast. There is another short wave dropping into North
Dakota which should spread some mid/high level clouds into the
area tonight. But still expect VFR conditions. N-NW surface winds
becoming light and variable over the west by evening as the
surface ridge moves east.

KMSP...Expect vfr conditions during the period. Some stratocu
redevelopment expected but 4k-5k foot cig expected to remain to
the north and east.

Friday night...VFR. Southeast wind 10 kt or less.
Saturday...VFR. Variable wind around 5 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. Southeast wind 5 to 10 kt.
Sunday...MVFR ceilings possible. South Wind 5 to 15 kt shifting


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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