000
FXUS63 KMPX 090903
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
303 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING UNDER
THE TEMPORARY INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY/S
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...WHICH
MEANS THE POWDERY SNOW THAT FELL YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY BE BLOWING
AROUND A BIT. THE BRISK WINDS...COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE...WILL ACTUALLY YIELD COLDER WIND CHILL
READINGS THIS MORNING THAN WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR MN...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. THE AFTERNOON WIND
CHILL READINGS WILL NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT...AND RANGE
MOSTLY FROM 15 BELOW TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO.

THIS EVENING WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
QUICK DUSTING OF SNOW ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HALF TO ONE INCH
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. WIND CHILLS
WILL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA /25 BELOW/ AGAIN ON MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

NOT TOO MANY CHGS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE INITIAL ARCTIC
AIR MASS IN PLACE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE COLD...HIGHS
WILL REBOUND FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS...TO THE 20S...AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 30S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TYPICALLY HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THE OVERALL 50H MEAN TROUGH THAT HAS HELD ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA...AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF THE U.S. WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA BY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA SLOWLY WEAKENING...A MORE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LEADING TO CHGS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE CHGS WILL OCCUR WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWV/S
MOVING ALONG THE ACTIVE WNW/NW JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
TIMING OF THESE SHRTWV/S WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH BOUTS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW. DUE TO PWATS LOW IN THIS ARCTIC AIR
MASS...EVEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD
TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX
AND SNOWFALL RATIOS OF 20 TO 25-1.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

SNOW IS TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST MN
HAS CLEARED OUT. A RAPID CLEARING OF CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW THE
DISSIPATION OF SNOW WITH SKC EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AND COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW
TOWARD AXN...RWF...AND STC. WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY MONDAY
EVENING WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE.

KMSP...SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND WILL END SHORTLY. CIGS CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE AROUND...BUT AFTER THE SNOW ENDS CIGS WILL BE VFR. WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND COULD GUST TO 20 KTS LATE
MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ043>045-049>053-
     057>063-065>070-073>077-082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041-042-047-048-
     054>056-064.

WI...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF