638
FXUS63 KMPX 301748
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1248 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quieter weather expected to start the week, outside a few
  chances for rain today and Wednesday into Thursday.

- Next period of active weather looks to come at the end of the
  week, with a possible frontal passage and hot conditions for
  the Fourth of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today...Regional radar shows strong convection to our SW across
Nebraska and Kansas, and a more confined area of storms further
up along this boundary into central Minnesota. To our NW,
another area of scattered showers and storms are tracking into
NoDak from Manitoba. The storms in central MN have produced
sporadic gusts around 40 mph and heavy rainfall, with KSTC
reporting nearly 1" of rain in an hour. These should generally
weaken as they move early this morning. A lull in the rain is
expected before the scattered showers and storms push SE from
NoDak/Canada. These will last through the afternoon, with the
more widespread coverage expected in northern MN and WI. Winds
could be on the breezier side today as well, with gusts up to 25
to 30 mph during the afternoon.

Tuesday through Thursday... High pressure builds in on Tuesday,
leading a pleasant day with limited cloud cover and highs in the
80s. Models continue to suggest ridging starts to build in
across the Rockies by mid-week, gradually spreading west through
the end of the week. NBM PoPs range from 20-40% across the area
on Wednesday as a weak front could squeeze out some rain. Mid-
level moisture may be a limiting factor with this wave though.
By Thursday, a warm front will attempt to lift north across the
Upper Mississippi Valley as a developing surface low moves
northeast into Dakotas. A period of showers and storms look
possible in conjunction with this warm front as it lifts north.

Fourth of July weekend...By Friday, strong moisture advection
could bring PWAT values of 2"+ and dewpoints in the 70s. The
ridge axis moves overhead, temperatures could climb into the
90s. The deterministic NBM, which shows highs hovering right
around 90, is closest to the 10th percentile of all model
outputs. If you jump up to the 25th, much of MN is forecasted
90F+... at the 50th percentile all of MN and western WI are
safely in the low 90s... and at the 75th percentile, you have
highs approaching 100F out in western MN. While there are many
variables that could impact temps, including any storms Thursday
into Friday or how much cloud cover we have, this is just to
show the potential for hot and humid conditions on the holiday.
These conditions could set up the potential for a period of
storms as a cold front looks to sweep through the region some
time Friday into Saturday. This bears watching as it will be a
busy day for outdoor activities. Behind this front, temperatures
cool back down and the rest of the weekend should be quieter.
That said, some ensemble members hint at gusty winds on Saturday
with winds picking up out of the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Mainly VFR throughout this TAF duration with main chances for
MVFR/TSRA for sites along and north of I-94, generally in the
20z-00z timeframe this afternoon. Chances for precip are still
only in the 30 percent area, not high enough for TEMPO
confidence so have kept PROB30 mention going. Otherwise, mainly
high clouds with some diurnal mid- level cumulus development,
then clearing tonight through Tuesday morning. NW winds will be
breezy/gusty through sunset then diminish to 10kts or less this
evening through the overnight hours.

KMSP...Chance of a late afternoon SHRA/TSRA, generally the
20z-23z timeframe, with MVFR conditions possible. Otherwise, VFR
conditions to prevail with NW winds throughout this duration.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Slight chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Slight chance TSRA/MVFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.
FRI...Chance aftn TSRA/MVFR, likely evening TSRA/MVFR. Wind S
10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC