000
FXUS63 KMPX 121149
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
649 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

TODAY WILL BE QUITE COOL FOR MID MARCH. MN/WI IS STILL SEEING COLD
ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND A BIT OF NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COOLER. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...AS THE MATURE
CYCLONE THAT IS BRINGING HEAVY SNOWS FROM CHICAGO TO DETROIT THIS
MORNING MOVES EAST BY THE NOON HOUR. THE COLD ADVECTION YESTERDAY
ALSO ACTED TO SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE...WE SAW THE MPX
SOUNDING GO FROM 0.64" TO 0.22" IN 12 HOURS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE
ARE STILL A COUPLE BATCHES OF CLOUDS OUT THERE THIS MORNING AND
BOTH HAVE PRODUCED A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE BATCH IN
WESTERN WI IS TIED TO THE CORE OF COLDEST DROPPING SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE WINTER AND THE BATCH IN WESTERN MN IS LIKELY TIED TO
WEAK WARM ADVECTION. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN STEADILY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THERE SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
RECOVER IN TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...IF THAT STRATUS DECK
HANGS AROUND...WE MIGHT SEE MORNING HIGHS TODAY. THE WARM
ADVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUR WAY
LATE TONIGHT AND MIGHT END UP PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN
CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL WI. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION AND MIGHT NOT SNOW AT ALL IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

WITH LITTLE/NO PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF TEMPERATURES HANDLED
THE LAST COUPLE MILD DAYS QUITE WELL...SO WE TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY - WHICH MEANT GOING WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD. WE KEPT THE
TWIN CITIES METRO 44-46...AS THE AIR MASS DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS
WARM AS THE ONE THAT GAVE KMSP A 53 ON MONDAY - THAT BEING SAID IF
SUNSHINE PREVAILS...WE COULD STILL BE 2-4 DEGREES TOO COOL. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT DROPS ACROSS MN ON FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP THE PRECIP NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL...HOWEVER...STILL GET THE COLD AIR
IN IT`S WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS BRINGS IN A
1040MB /1030MB OF THE ECMWF/ SUNDAY MORNING. IF THAT
HAPPENS...AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94 COULD SEE YET ANOTHER SUB
ZERO MORNING - NOT VERY COMMON IN MID MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI. CEILINGS STILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR AT THIS HOUR UNDER
THESE CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN MN ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO
EXPAND EAST WITH TIME...SO MORE OF THE SITES SHOULD EVENTUALLY GO
BKN-OVC BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL SHOULD LITTLE WEATHER IMPACT TO
AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN - KRNH/KEAU ARE IN
MORE FAVORABLE SPOTS TO RECEIVE THE SNOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

KMSP...

CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STEADY NW WINDS. THE CLOUDS
FROM WI HAVE BEEN ADVANCING TO THE WEST...BUT WE THINK THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH...JUST AS THE CLOUDS FROM WESTERN MN BEGIN
ARRIVING. AT ANY RATE...BESIDES A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2500-3000 FT
CEILINGS...LOOK FOR GOOD SURFACE WEATHER TODAY. EVEN IF THE SNOW
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NIL OR VERY SMALL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR DURING THE AFTN. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF