000
FXUS63 KMPX 260400
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1000 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MECHANICAL MIXING DRIVEN BY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
TOGETHER WITH THE SYNOPTIC COMPONENT OF THE ISALLOBARIC WINDS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THE WIND CHILLS IN WISCONSIN WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT
WESTERN MN HAS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILLS OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS...AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ALBERTA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDWEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH FROM SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE NORTHERN FEATURE APPEARS TO SUPPRESS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES
FOR SNOW SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS FOR
NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ENDING ANY CHANCES OF SNOW...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST. HOWEVER...SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO THOSE SEEN
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR AREA
FROM CANADA. SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND EVENT...BEST PRECIPITATION/SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SINCE THE
NORTHERN TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS EVENT
THOUGH...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT FARTHER
NORTH...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER SNOW CHANCES ON TUESDAY FOR OUR
AREA. THIS EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING SNOW CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AS CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COULD
SEE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 2500-3000FT DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THE MOISTURE PROGGED
BY THE NAM MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THE 18Z THURSDAY SREF PROBABILITY OF CIGS
UNDER 3KFT ARE STILL BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT OUR
WESTERN SITES /KAXN AND KRWF/. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...DO THINK
THERE COULD BE SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE
INCLUDED SCT-BKN MENTIONS AROUND 17Z THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT WINDS
TO BE GUSTY AT KRWF OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS NEARING 20 KTS.

KMSP...
VFR AND CLEAR SKIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCT-
BKN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AROUND 2500-3000FT BY 17Z THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW HOWEVER. WINDS NORTHWEST AT 7-10 KTS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10KT.
SAT...VFR. WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS S AT 15KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>050-052>058-064-065-073.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...ADL
AVIATION...LS