Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 132054
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The clipper system that brought us a quick shot of snow this morning
continues to race southeast and as of this writing the surface low
had already reached Chicago.  Northwest winds have continued to be
strong through the day, especially in western MN.  The pressure
gradient will weaken markedly this evening though, and the
atmosphere will decouple a few hours after dark which will further
allow the winds to weaken at the surface.  Some spots in western and
southern MN have seen the winds decrease below Wind Advisory
criteria, so went ahead and removed the wind advisory for several
counties.  The strong winds will continue through the afternoon for
a portion of the Minnesota River Valley from Redwood Fall through
Mankato and southward to the Iowa border.  The winds in this area
will decrease substantially after 6pm.

Otherwise, the low clouds are expected to stick around and bring the
chance for light snow showers or flurries through the day tomorrow
under deep cyclonic flow.  Most of the precip will stay to our west
as a shortwave dives south through the Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The main focus of the long term is this weekend.  But first, a
clipper system will drop south through Minnesota Friday, but remain
along and north of I-94, producing the bulk of its precip north of
there.

The ECMWF and the GFS both indicate a deep trough extending into
northern Mexico by early Friday, with the actual shortwave mostly
holding firm through Saturday.  Another system moves onshore from
the west and it will be interesting to see how these two interact.
The GFS moves the northern Mexico system quickly east through the
Ohio River Valley and still shears out the other system, and doesnt
produce any exciting weather for us.  The ECMWF has a somewhat
similar response but doesn`t shear the western system so quickly and
for the second consecutive run of the model, it produces a stripe of
light qpf across southern MN and western WI late Saturday night into
Sunday. Hence, slight chance pops are in place to account for this
potential and this will be something to watch.

A strong system moving across Canada will pull warm air northward
Monday, and hence the forecast for highs in the 35-40 degree range.
A dry cold front will pass through eventually, but not before both
Monday and Tuesday finish above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Pretty straightforward post-frontal setup for this time of year
with stratus expected to linger through the period and strong
northwest winds will continue through this afternoon. A weakening
gradient and decoupling of the atmosphere will allow winds to drop
to the 5-10 knot range tonight.

KMSP...Expect MVFR cigs for most of the next 30 hours, however
there could be a window after 00Z this evening that the low clouds
scatter out, but that is doubtful at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...Chc MVFR. Wind WSW 5-10 kts.
Sat...Chc MVFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ073>075-082-083-
     091-092.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...SPD



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