000
FXUS63 KMPX 280514
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1114 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE STRATUS HAS HELD TOGETHER QUITE WELL ACROSS OUR FA TODAY WITH
LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD. SOME INITIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING
AROUND KFRM FILLED IN. ONLY A FEW BREAKS WERE NOTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTHWEST OF KMKT AND AROUND KDTL. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THE STRATUS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SSW ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SPEED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHICH MAY ERODE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS THAT THIS MAY WORK ALL THE WAY INTO THE TWIN CITIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ON
THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 20S IN OUR FAR EASTERN WI
COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE SD BORDER.

ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE DAKOTAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC
OMEGA. THE MAIN CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. IT/S A VERY SIMILAR SET UP THERMALLY TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS. WITH THE ECMX
MOS VERIFYING WELL ON MONDAY...INCLUDED ABOUT A 50 PERCENT BLEND
FOR WEDNESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE OTHER HALF BEING RAW BLEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUN FROM THE MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TWIN CITIES TO THE MID 40S IN SW MN. THIS MAY BE 3 OR 4 DEGREES
TOO COOL DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER. STILL NOT TOO BAD FOR LATE
JANUARY WHERE THE AVERAGE LOW/HIGH IS 8/25. SOME SMALL POPS FOR
RAIN/SNOW WERE INTRODUCED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON (21Z-24Z) NEAR
LAKE MILLE LACS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY/NIGHT. NEITHER SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATION. WEDNESDAYS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A WINTRY
MIX...WITH POST-FRONTAL FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER THERMAL PROFILES...SO EXPECTING ALL
SNOW.

DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED
WITH A BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
THE STRENGTH OF THE H300 JET SHOULD PROMOTE OCCLUSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACT WILL
DETERMINE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLE COOLER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE
FASTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS BOTH MODELS
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

LOW OVERCAST STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FCST
PERIOD. SITES THAT HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED AS MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK /EXCEPT FOR KEAU WHICH LOOKS TO ESCAPE
ANY EARLY-ON IFR CONDS/...AND THEN REMAIN AS IFR THROUGH LATE MRNG
BEFORE CIGS SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO LOWER-END MVFR RANGE. AN APCHG
CDFNT WILL THEN BRING WITH IT LOWER CIGS FOR LATE TMRW AFTN THRU
TMRW EVE. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHC OF SEEING VERY LIGHT WINTRY
MIXED PRECIP OVER MAINLY ERN MN INTO WRN WI...WITH THE BEST CHCS
GOING INTO WRN WI. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE MN TAF SITES BUT HAVE INSERTED PROB30 GROUPS AT THE
TAIL END OF BOTH WI TAF SITES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY WITH THE FROPA AS SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THEN THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF VRBL WIND DIRECTIONS WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE
STILL ARND 5 KT. ONCE WINDS SWING ARND TO NW...A MUCH TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT WILL TRAIL THE CDFNT...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO INCRS TO NEARLY
15G25KT.

KMSP...HAVE INITIALIZED CIGS AS LOWER-END MVFR BUT AM EXPECTING
CIGS TO DROP INTO IFR NOT LONG AFTER 06Z...AND WILL REMAIN THERE
THRU THE WED MRNG PUSH. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 1000
FT BUT REMAIN BELOW THE 1700 FT THRESHOLD THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD. IFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED WED EVE THRU WED NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIP OCCURRENCE/TIMING AT KMSP SO HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT IN THIS ISSUANCE...BUT IT STILL IS A CONCERN
GOING INTO TMRW EVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20 KT.
FRI...VFR. WIND S 5 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND N 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC