000
FXUS63 KMPX 131049
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS IDENTIFIED A SHORTWAVE JUST NORTH OF
THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL ALBERTA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS PV ANOMALY AND SURFACE
LOW WILL RACE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE THERMAL
RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TOGETHER WITH CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
MAXIMIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE HAVE GONE ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW 60S EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MN...MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 40S IN
WESTERN WI. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASED THE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE...BUT FEEL THE MOISTURE IS OVERDONE AND EXPECTING MORE
OF A LOW STRATUS SCENARIO THAN FALLING PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM IS BELOW AVERAGE...
PARTICULARLY IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE MODEL SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY
LARGE DUE IN PART TO THE COMPLICATED FLOW PATTERN AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN IT THAT PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW THINGS DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE DISTURBANCES ARE FAIRLY
WEAK WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE CONSIDERABLE MODEL JUMPS. HOWEVER...A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY BE EMERGING SOMETIME EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WSW-SW REGIME. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SEVERAL
MORE RUNS BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE CONVERGENCE TOWARD A COMMON
SOLUTION.

MORE SPECIFICALLY...SEVERAL POTENTIAL PRECIP MAKERS WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE MPX CWA IN THE LONG TERM BEGINNING FRIDAY. CAA
ALLOWING FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PROFILE IS ABOVE -15C...SO THINKING MORE
SPRINKLES THAN FLURRIES. MODELS ALSO TEND TO OVERDO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IN THESE SCENARIOS...SO DO NOT THINK CHANCES OF ANYTHING
MEASURABLE ARE IMPRESSIVE.

ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW TO THESE AREAS. THIS TOO WILL BRING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW. GFS IS PRETTY BULLISH WITH QPF WHEREAS ECMWF AND GEM ARE
MORE SUBDUED. PREFER THE MORE SUBDUED SOLUTION WITH THE GULF OF
MEXICO CUT OFF.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE EVOLUTION OF THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACKED...
DEEPER SYSTEM TO EMERGE OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NORTH
CENTRAL MN AND COULD AFFECT AXN/STC THIS MORNING. FOR NOW JUST
HAVE SCT CIGS...BUT MAY HAVE TO AMEND FOR BKN IF THEY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. AGAIN HANDLED THIS WITH A SCT GROUP...BUT COULD
SEE MVFR CIGS.

KMSP...
AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT THE STRATUS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MSP
TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WSW WINDS GUST 15-20KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THE POST
FRONTAL CEILINGS COMING DOWN LATER TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NNE AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS E AT 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 05KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB