Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 160848
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
348 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

No major concerns today as temperatures rise another 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than on Sunday under sunny skies. The pressure gradient will
tighten today as an area of low pressure moves eastward, well north
of the Canadian border. Western/southwestern Minnesota will see a
few wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Not much change overnight with winds
decreasing, but temperatures still mild for mid October.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A very quiet pattern will persist across the country this week
with an expansive mid level ridge stretching from coast to coast,
keeping the storm track well to the north. Surface high pressure
near the eastern seaboard will sustain a steady southerly flow
from the Plains through the western Great Lakes. The only
exception through the period will come Wednesday due to a brief
weakness in the ridge allowing a front to dip through. By
Thursday the front will wash out and the southerly flow will
resume.

The warmest day is expected to be Friday when highs could approach
80 degrees. Thermal ridging with 925 mb temps exceeding +17C will
move in ahead of a front progged to reach the area Saturday/
Saturday night.

ThetaE will increase in advance of the cold front early this
weekend as dew points climb into the mid/upper 50s. Mid level
lapse rates will be sufficient enough for a chance of thunder.
Models have increased QPF quite a bit over the last few days`
worth of runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid and high
clouds will gradually exit to the east overnight, with only
fleeting scattered high clouds on Monday. West winds back to the
southwest overnight, then become gusty (into the upper teens,
knots) at KAXN/KRWF/KSTC/KMKT during the afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue...VFR. Winds SW 5-7 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds W 5-7 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds S 5-7 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS


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