000
FXUS63 KMPX 301803
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATED A FAST MOVING SHRTWV ACROSS NE
ND...HEADING W/WSW ACROSS NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WAS
REPORTED NORTH OF THE ND BORDER WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS WITH -SN SPREADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART
OF MN DURING THE MORNING. OUR REGION WILL HAVE MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING OUT BY
AFTN. HOWEVER...ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN TONIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
REMAINS TOO FAR N/NE OF MPX CWA TO HAVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN
10-14% IN THE FAR NE AREAS FROM MORA MN TO CUMBERLAND/LADYSMITH
WI. THESE AREAS MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES...BUT NOT ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

ONE MINOR CHG IN TODAYS FORECAST IS LOWER CLDS ACROSS EASTERN SD/FAR
SW MN MAY CLIP/DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY NOON. HOWEVER...LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE MUCH
HIGHER MEAN LAYER RH BLW 92H THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THERE COULD BE
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.|

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NUISANCE SNOWFALL EVENTS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN
REDUCE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

SEMI ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. PRIOR TO THE PATTERN TRANSITION...A
SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN OFF THE LARGE BAJA CYCLONE AND BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO MO/IA. MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE KEY FEATURES AND HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITION WILL EXPAND. THE 30.00Z MODELS OVERALL DEPICTED A
MORE NORTHERLY SHIFT. AM NOT TOTALLY BUYING INTO THIS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CAUTION IS USUALLY ADVISED IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE DRY
NORTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW IS IN PLACE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY TO BRING
SNOWFALL TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
THAT WILL PIVOT INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE IOWA BORDER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THESE SYSTEMS. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 5 DEGREES /KAXN/ TO THE LOWER TEENS IN SOUTHERN MN. SINGLE
DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE EXPECTED NEARLY AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL WITH READINGS
TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.

THE NEXT CLIPPERS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL HAVE A BIT HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE PRESENCE OF A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN MN.
HIGHS WILL REDUCE BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS RANGE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

BESIDES A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS IN WESTERN MN...WE EXPECT MOST
AREA TO REMAIN VFR TRHOUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THERE SHOULD BE STRATUS
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WE DON`T HAVE A GREAT FEELING ABOUT WHEN/IF TO
CLEAR THE MVFR STRATUS TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THE WEATHER LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A LOT OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN...MVFR CIGS WITH -SN. WIND NNE AT 10 KT.
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/SN POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS SW AT 10 KT.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR SN POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...CLF