354
FXUS63 KMPX 022007
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity build as we head into the holiday weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Friday into
  Saturday.

- Cooler and drier conditions arrive for the second half of the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Visible satellite imagery shows diurnal Cu across far
southeastern Minnesota and much of western Wisconsin this
afternoon. There are far fewer clouds to the west, allowing
temperatures to make a run at 90. It`s also quite a bit more
humid across western Minnesota with Tds in the mid to upper 60s
thanks to southerly flow on the eastern edge of a building ridge
across the central CONUS. The thunderstorm chances for this
afternoon have been significantly reduced as the better forcing
lies to the east. Still, a rouge shower or two may pop before
the sun sets. Tomorrow, with the ridge axis over the eastern
Dakotas/western Minnesota, temperatures and humidity will be on
the rise. Southerly flow will send Tds into the 70s with highs
in the upper 80s/low 90s. With the better moisture and a weak
700mb shortwave, we may have a better shot at some afternoon
showers and thunderstorms for southern Minnesota/western
Wisconsin.

Heading into the Independence Day holiday weekend, the heat and
humidity look to stick around showers and thunderstorms likely
sometime late Friday through Saturday. Friday should be mostly
dry during the day, but heat indices will approach the mid to
upper 90s. While there is currently no heat related headline,
one may be considered in future forecasts. As we get into the
evening/overnight hours, chances for storms increase ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is still a fair amount of timing
uncertainty, but overall, it does appear thunderstorms will hold
off until late in the evening/overnight hours. Thanks to the
instability that will build through the afternoon, some of these
storms may be strong to severe. Lapse rates are less than
impressive, but some hail and damaging winds are possible. Those
with outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the forecast.

The first half of the weekend looks to be a continuation of Friday
night with an additional mid level shortwave pushing across
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Increasing 850mb winds will shift the
threat for the heavier showers and storms into far eastern Minnesota
and western Wisconsin. QPF totals for the two days are around a half
inch to an inch, but given the impressive pwats, some higher amounts
are certainly possible. Sunday will be much cooler and drier in the
wake of this system. Slightly below normal temperatures will last
through the early part of next week with no strong signal for
widespread rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

For RNH and EAU, considered including a PROB30 for -TSRA this
evening but CAM uncertainty is too high while coverage of
precip looks too sparse. A stray shower may pass near EAU later
near 01Z. Also, included visibilities dropping to IFR at EAU
just before sunrise Thursday as fog seems most likely here.
Elsewhere, VFR expected the entire period. Southwesterly winds
slow to under 5 knots tonight and slowly become southeasterly.
Winds then increase to 5-10 knots during Thursday morning.

KMSP...Any -SHRA or -TSRA this afternoon/evening looks to be
well east of MSP. VFR expected the entire period. A PROB30 may
be needed for -TSRA Thursday afternoon in future forecasts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, chc TSRA/IFR pm. Wind S 10-15G25-30kts.
SAT...-SHRA/MVFR, chc IFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR PM. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...CTG