Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 261150
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRES CENTERS...ONE NEAR KDLH AND ANOTHER NEAR KOMA...LINKED BY A
TRAILING CDFNT FROM THE FORMER TO A LEADING WMFNT FROM THE LATTER.
MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
FL WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ENTERING THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS. A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROF OVER
ERN SD AND THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE EWD OVER SRN MN DURG THE DAY
TDA. IN CONCERT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE SFC FRONT WILL ALSO
SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACRS THE AREA WHILE THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KOMA
SHIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE UPR LOW COMBINED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSION OF
SHWRS /AND ISOLD TSTMS/ FROM AROUND THE MN/IA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN
WI...POSSIBLY GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
BEST SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
RICE LAKE-COTTAGE GROVE- FAIRMONT...AND HRRR/HOPWRF/SREF INDICATES
ENOUGH CAPE TO POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE E...SO WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...SO WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E THIS EVE
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF TO
THE E COME DAYBREAK WED MRNG.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MILD AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS MRNG BUT MODEST CAA WITH THE ADVANCE
OF THE FNT WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE LWR 70S TDA. ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING TNGT ALONG WITH WINDS BACKING TO WLY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SKIES WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK
AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES IN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT WIDESPREAD MID 80S ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THURSDAY WHICH MEANS WE`LL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS PUSHING IN FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. WORKED THOSE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES GO AWAY ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WE`LL BE
IN A POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A DECENT COOL DOWN EXPECTED
AS A SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY MORNING LOWS...SO
ITS EITHER 10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. 850MB
TEMPS MAY COOL TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WITH POTENTIALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE
30S BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN
SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY...SO STUCK WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WE GET BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW STRATUS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THIS MRNG MAKING FOR A
PATCHWORK OF CEILINGS...SOME DOWN TO 002 AND SOME VFR. AM THINKING
THE STRATUS WILL LEVEL OUT TO GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW-END VFR
CEILINGS BY LATE MRNG AND REMAIN AS SUCH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
WHILE A SFC FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES E AND EXITS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR MAINLY WRN WI AND SRN MN...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR E
AS KMSP...BUT HAVE CONFINED BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE WI TAF
SITES WITH BEST TSTM CHCS FOR KEAU. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS EVE AS THE FRONT EXITS AND HIGH PRES ENTERS...MAKING FOR VFR
CONDS TNGT INTO TMRW MRNG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM N TO W
THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT THERE WILL BE OCNL VARIATIONS THROUGHOUT
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...HAVE INCLUDED A BKN005 MENTION AT INITIALIZATION DUE TO
SEVERAL SITES ARND KMSP REPORTING AS SUCH. SKIES THEN RETURN TO
VFR CEILINGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS DURING A WINDOW OF BEST
TIMING FOR -SHRA. CONDS THEN RETURN TO VFR TNGT THRU TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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