Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 200243 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
943 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

High pressure over the Midwest will slide off the
southeast this evening as southerly winds increase ahead of a
weak frontal boundary over the Dakotas. A fairly weak low level jet
develops to the southwest of our area overnight. Models were
suggesting some sort of weak short wave/convection developing to the
southwest after midnight in response to the low level jet, but
backed off, which makes sense at this point in time. Moisture is not
overly abundant. The frontal boundary will be located from the
arrowhead area to near Redwood Falls by mid morning and just west
of the Twin Cities by 2 PM. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunder will be in southeast MN later Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

In the big picture, the upper pattern will transition from slight
troughing over the north central CONUS at the start of the period
to northwest flow into midweek before we see ridging build over
the center of the continent toward the end of the upcoming week.
Frontal boundary will loiter near the southern portion of the area
Sunday night through Monday, keeping a chance of
showers/thunderstorms in the forecast, with the best chance
looking to be over the southern portion of the area. However, a
northern stream shortwave trough will drop southeast into the area
Monday afternoon/evening, which will help to enhance PoPs a bit
over the remainder of the area, although the potential for any
significant precipitation looks to be near or south of I-90.
Cooler air will surge into the region later Monday night and
Tuesday and Canadian high pressure drops in from the northwest.
Cool and dry northwest upper flow then looks to prevail through at
least Wednesday night, with return flow beginning to setup on
Thursday. Better low level moisture doesn`t look like it will
return to the region until Friday night or Saturday, so any
meaningful chance for precipitation should hold off until that
time, with most guidance not bringing much in terms of warm
advection precipitation back into the area until later Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 943 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Clear skies and light winds are expected to prevail late this
evening. Increasing mid level clouds late tonight and Sunday with
an approaching front. A few showers or storms are possible later
tonight across southern MN and along the front itself Sunday
afternoon. Kept PROB30 going for many of the TAF locations Sunday
afternoon, and will watch tonight for possible inclusion. Winds
will veer Sunday to northwest behind the front late in the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

MON...Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.




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