Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 080640

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1240 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.Updated for Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday evening)
Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

We could see a few flurries over the area tonight into early
Friday as a weak surface wave currently over Manitoba drops
southeast through the region. Otherwise, it will mainly serve to
just increase mid/high clouds as warm advection increases. A much
more potent shortwave trough will drop southeast into the region
Friday afternoon and evening, bringing fairly widespread light
snow to the area, particularly east of I-35 where an inch or two
of accumulation is expected by late Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday overnight through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Things don`t look to change much at all through the period, with
the western ridge and eastern trough looking to hold on through
next Thursday. There are some indications that the western ridge
will begin breaking down toward the end of the period, with the
upper flow becoming more zonal along the northern tier of the
CONUS after that, but we`ll need to wait and see if that model
trend persists. In any event, with the pattern remaining largely
the same through the current 7 day forecast period, we`ll see more
of the same in terms of our sensible weather. Northwest flow will
prevail, with reinforcing shots of cold air and chances for light
snow every every 1-2 days or so. The model guidance is in good
agreement on the overall pattern through the period, favoring
mostly below normal temperatures and periodic light snow chances.
However, as would be expected, there are differences in the
details as we move beyond the weekend with respect to timing,
placement, and amplitude of the individual shortwave troughs and
associated surface features. This leads to a lot of chance PoPs in
the forecast, which will be refined as things get closer in time
(leading to shorter time periods with what will undoubtedly be
somewhat higher PoPs). The next more potent shortwave trough with
reasonable agreement in the guidance looks to be on Monday, and at
this point it appears to favor the eastern half of the area much
like tomorrow evening`s system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

No major changes from the previous forecast other than to increase
wind speeds Friday evening. MVFR clouds should slide down from the
north this morning, with snow developing mainly at the eastern
sites later this afternoon. KRNH and KEAU could see IFR/LIFR
visbys as the snow moves through. As mentioned earlier, northerly
wind gusts in excess of 30 kts are possible Friday evening.

Snow should arrive around 22-23Z, but the heaviest snow should be
to the east of KMSP. Overall amounts should be less than an inch.
Look for strong northerly wind gusts Friday evening and overnight.

Sat...Chc MVFR in morning. Wind NW 10G15-20kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind WNW SW 10G15 kts.
Mon...MFVR with chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15G25 kts.




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