Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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032
FXUS63 KMPX 162306
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
606 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The short term concerns are temperature trends and then fire weather
in the afternoon.

Very mild autumn weather to continue through Tuesday with
temperatures progged to warm through the low to mid 70s to much of
the south and west Tuesday afternoon. Weak surface trough progged to
build out ahead of Dakotas cold front later tonight and gradually
weaken. This will only manage to decrease surface flow from a more
southerly direction overnight as the boundary layer cools and
decouples. This should allow overnight lows to cool to the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Relative humidity values will drop off to the 25 to 30 percent range
to the southwest once again Tuesday afternoon but surface winds
should remain low enough to prohibit widespread fire weather
concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at There is a lot of energy in the jet stream across north
America, but the storm track will remain north of the region
this week which means southerly flow, warm temperatures, and dry
weather over the Upper Midwest. The next weather system to affect
MN/WI will be late Saturday into Sunday when widespread showers
and thunderstorms are expected. This will be a fairly fast moving
system, so although most if not all locations will receive rain,
the total amounts will only be around 0.50 to 1.00 inches.

On Wednesday a weak cold front will move through the region, but
this will pass through dry and quickly lift back northward as a warm
front on Friday. Strong southerly flow will develop Friday which
will bring moisture-rich air across the Upper Midwest. On Friday
highs will be in the mid 70s for most locations, with dewpoints in
the mid 50s. A powerful cold front will move through the region on
Saturday and this will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence is very high that this front will produce widespread
rainfall, but there is still some uncertainty in timing. All in all,
have an 80 percent chance of rain, but this will likely go up as we
near closer to the event.253 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mostly clear
skies (only a few fleeting cirrus clouds). Winds will decrease
under 10 knots this eve, with low level wind shear possible at
KMKT-KRNH-EAU between 03z-08z as the low level jet develops.
Southwest winds around 7-10 knots develop for Wednesday, with
gusts to 20 knots possible at KAXN.

KMSP...
No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Winds SW bcmg W 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds S 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Winds S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...LS



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