Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 210409

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1109 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...For 06z aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

It`s hot! Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the upper
80s to mid 90s area wide, but dew points have been the main story
today. Those have ranged from the low 70s to lower 80s making for
heat indices up to 110 degrees at some locations in Minnesota. Low
clouds have finally dissipated as dew point depressions have
risen. Expecting mainly clear skies through Thursday morning.
There is an outside chance of a few storms north of I-94 and east
of I-35 later tonight as a short wave tracks across northern
Minnesota, but 700 mb temps are +13 to +15C so there is a very
good chance we`ll remain capped. The CAMs seem to concur.

The cold front will begin to sink south into central Minnesota
Thursday afternoon. This is important for three reasons. One, the
thermal ridge aloft just preceding the front will be directly
overhead tomorrow afternoon during peak heating. 925 mb temps of
+30C would normally support highs in the lower 100s, which is
what occurred the last time we hit 100+ in 2012. Two, dew point
pooling should also occur ahead of the front. It is unclear how
much this will affect temperatures. Dew points will drop behind
the front while the thermal ridge remains in place, so it is
conceivable temperatures will actually warm a bit more behind it
across west central to northeast Minnesota, similar to what the
GFS is showing with its 103 degree temp at St. Cloud. And three,
the front would provide a focus for storm development. It`s
possible a storm or two may fire along it across the far north,
but unlikely elsewhere with +15C temps at 700 mb.

Wouldn`t be surprised if a couple locations did hit 100,
especially in the metro, but the possibility of high clouds and
dew point pooling should keep temps in the mid to upper 90s.
It`s kind of a moot point anyway with heat index values in the
105 to 115 degree range. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect
for the whole CWA Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The long term concerns remain thunder threat Thursday night and
residual heat for Friday. Then the continuation of fairly zonal
type flow pattern/active weather across the area.

The atmosphere appears to be capped as the thermal ridge drops
south over the region with the front. Will continue the slight
chance pops over the far east and south portion of the area...on
the edge of this cap as it drops south. This will leave much of
the area dry Thursday night with the fropa. Instability and deep
layer shear will be strong enough for at least strong storms if
the should develop.

The cool front will sag into northern Iowa by 12z Friday with
somewhat drier dewpoints dropping into at least the northern cwa.
We did trim the heat headlines for Friday...confining them to
about the southern half of the area as heat indices drop back
through the mid/upper 90s. This may have to be trimmed further if
current lower dewpoint trends continue.

The next significant threat of showers and storms moves in later
friday night and lingers through Saturday night as we see return
flow/waa thunder moving in later Friday night and the upper
trough/front moving through the area Saturday/Saturday night.
Models in good agreement with this overall we will
continue with the likely chances spreading west to east during
this period. The severe weather threat will remain as
well...associated with the fropa. Heavy rainfall is also a good
likelihood considering high PW`s working ahead of the front.

Drier conditions are expected Sunday into Monday night before the
approach of the next system toward midweek next week.
Temperatures should continue to trend above normal through this
forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Keeping a close eye on the potential for thunderstorms overnight.
Have tweaked the area for thunderstorm chances a bit farther south
overnight, but still banking on the mid level cap to suppress
activity from expanding as far south as KMSP. Still expect KRNH
and KEAU to have a slightly better chance due to their proximity
on the edge of the mid level CAP, so have included Prob30 chances
for 10z-13z Thu. Have also included a mention of MVFR cigs, given
the deck of clouds circa 2KFT that developed from central MN into
central WI. Sct-bkn mid/high clouds are expected to prevail
Thursday as the heat builds. Southeast winds 7-10 kts shift to
south then southwest on Thursday.

As mentioned above, currently anticipate the area of SHRA/TS to
stay north/east of the site, but it is a low confidence forecast.
MVFR bkn layer will fleet in and out of KMSP overnight as well.

Thu...VFR. Wind SSW at 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5 kt.
Sat...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind S-SE 5-10 kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for WIZ024-026.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Thursday for

MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ054-056-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Thursday for MNZ041>045-


Thu...VFR. Wind SSW at 5-10kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind SE 5 kt.
Sat...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind S-SE 5-10 kt.

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