Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 142322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
522 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main concern in the short term remains fog trends into the
overnight. Visibilities have improved somewhat most areas but with
the incoming front and abundant low level moisture remaining, we
will likely see the visibilities drop again ahead of the front.
Not sure of how far they will drop and if it will be widespread
enough for a dense fog advisory at this time. Will have to
monitor trends into the night. Trough still on schedule to
develop light rain over the eastern cwa overnight with some
drizzle o the west as it/surface front moves through. Visibility
overall will improve with the passage of the front. Not clear how
much the lower clouds will erode, especially to the east into
Wednesday. Will continue mostly cloudy to the northeast cwa into
Wednesday with the continued lower level CAA. Winds will be gusty
from the northwest in the wake of the system making for a raw
November day. Temperatures will likely not go anywhere from
morning lows with the clouds, wind and colder air arriving.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

The longer term trends continue to indicate an overall trend
toward colder conditions for the weekend as the next strong trough
moves through later Thursday night into Friday night. Could see
some residual light snow/flurries to the east Saturday morning but
we should see drier conditions lasting through Monday. Appears
there will be some brief warming ahead of the next frontal system
Monday with cooling indicated again following the front.

The deterministic longer term models diverge somewhat on handling
the upper flow pattern towards midweek but overall the northwest
flow pattern should continue with at least slightly below normal
temperatures into Thanksgiving.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

LIFR/IFR conditions will persist until a cold front passes
through tonight. While we did see minor improvement in
visibilities this afternoon, do expect deterioration again this
evening. Drizzle and light rain will become more widespread this
evening across WI and eastern MN. MVFR cigs developing Wed
morning becoming vfr from west to east into the afternoon.
Southerly sfc winds will become northwest and gusty behind the
front for Wednesday.

KMSP...High confidence in IFR ceilings tonight, but lower
confidence as to when we rise above 1500 feet. Currently looks to
happen after the morning push. Do think we will become vfr for
the afternoon.

Thu...VFR with MVFR/-RASN possible late. Wind SE 10 kts.
Fri...MVFR with Chance -RA. Wind W 7-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 15g20kts.


MN...Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ085-093.



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