Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 171101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OBVIOUS IN BOTH
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A
LOOP OF THE REFLECTIVITY REVEALS THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE ROTATING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO WISCONSIN. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW /EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/ IS WELL
EAST OF THE FA AT THIS TIME.  BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LOW...TODAY WILL BRING QUITE A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...OVERCAST SKIES...AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS CAN ALL BE EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER 5 DEGREES OR SO.  WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN...NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH /HIGHEST WEST...LOWEST EAST/ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
THE POPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED...JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA /CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI/...AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
FOCUS OF FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES EAST...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST.  THE FA SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY PRECIP FREE AFTER 00Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE IN A SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL
WI.

THE MAIN CHANGE THAT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE
OVERCAST SKIES OUT SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED ON TO
THE IDEA OF MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING LOCKED UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MEANING THE CLEARING
LINE OF THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED
BY SEVERAL HOURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. I SEE NO REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS SENTIMENT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FLOW LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF ON A COOL
NOTE...AND THEN A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MANTITOBA. TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE OVER ALL BUT THE
WI PORTION OF THE AREA. THE AFORMENTIONED FEATURE DIVES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE 20 POPS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 /EAU CLAIRE/...WHERE THE
FORCING/MOISTURE IS BETTER.

AN OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MONDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
NOTABLE...BUT GFS AND ECMWF AGREEMENT WAS SUFFICIENT TO HOLD ONTO
A 20 POP FOR THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE CEILINGS POTENTIALLY RAISING TO VFR LEVELS DUE TO DAYTIME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
TO BRING MVFR CIGS BACK IN TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY THIS MORNING WE SEE SOME SUB 2K FT
CEILINGS TO THE NORTHWEST...WORKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS DAYTIME
HEATING...THE ENTIRE SHIELD WILL LIFT BUT STILL EXPECT MOST SITES
TO REMAIN RESTRICTED TO MVFR THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WATCH OUT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY.

KMSP...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CIGS DROP BELOW 1700`
THIS MORNING. OPTIMISTIC THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIFT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING BY THE TIME
THEY REACH MSP. A FEW HOURS OF VFR IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR EARLY THEN CLEARING. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD






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